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Simon Shares

• FedEx (NYSE code: FDX) spooks the market by withdrawing guidance and saying demand is collapsing.
• Thungela Resources (JSE code TGA) went ex-dividend to 6000c.
• Wilson Bayly (JSE code: WBO) is letting their Australian operations go bust, not giving any more financial assistance.

Has inflation peaked?

• Local inflation down at 7.6% for August from 7.8%.
• US August inflation at 8.3% from 8.5%.
• UK August 9.9% from 10.1%.
• EU 10.1% up from 9.8%.
• Europe and UK still have a winter of energy crisis to contend with.
• US and local looks to have topped, but energy/petrol still needs watching.
• Food inflation remains high and remains a risk.
• A recession will dampen demand and help inflation lower.
• Transport costs are down.

BUT, what of interest rates?

The problem is getting back to target.

• Locally 3%-6%
• US 2%

Rate increases still coming, likely into the new year before pausing.

Then the long wait for inflation to get to target (or near) before rates start coming down. In the US this is at best 2024 but probably 2025. Locally rates may start moving lower in early 2024.