Higher Education Enrollment Decline 2024-2040: You Can’t Recruit Your Way Out of a Declining Market The enrollment cliff is no longer a distant threat—it’s here, and institutions must act decisively to adapt. In this episode of Changing Higher Ed, Dr. Drumm McNaughton hosts Bill Conley and Bob Massa of Enrollment Intelligence Now to explore the demographic shifts, financial realities, and strategic imperatives reshaping higher education. With over 80 years of combined experience from institutions including Johns Hopkins, Bucknell, Dickinson College, and Columbia University, these enrollment experts provide insights into the demographic and enrollment decline.

The latest Western Interstate Commission on Higher Education (WICHE) report projects significant declines in high school graduates, signaling major challenges for higher education institutions. After peaking at 3.9 million graduates in 2025, numbers will decline to 3.6 million by 2030 and below 3.4 million by 2040—a 13% drop over 15 years. Five states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania) will account for over 75% of this nationwide decline.

Key Demographic Shifts (2025-2040)

• White student population: 26% decrease (1.6M to 1.2M)
• Hispanic student population: 16% increase (940K to 1.1M)
• Black student population: 22% decrease
• Asian student population: 10% decrease
• Growing gender gap: 2025 projection shows 52% female vs. 42% male degree holders

Market Segmentation Impact

1. Elite/Selective Institutions (Minimal impact)
   • Institutions with