History As It Happens

This is the first of two episodes dealing with the consequences of the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel and ensuing year of war.

A year after Israel began its military campaign in Gaza with the aim of destroying Hamas in retaliation for the 10/7 terrorist atrocities, the radical Islamist group survives. Hamas is weakened, but it maintains a brutal grip on power in Gaza. Hamas also continues to hold Israeli hostages who were kidnapped last October. Its leader Yahya Sinwar is believed to be hiding underground, his attitude hardening toward reaching a ceasefire with his lifelong enemy. In this episode, Nathan Brown, an expert on Hamas at George Washington University, delves into the militant group's ability to survive and its political outlook after a year of war.

Further listening:

Hamas with Nathan Brown (published on Oct. 12, 2023)

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Israel's invasion of southern Lebanon is evoking comparisons to 1982, the year Israel tried to rout an enemy on the other side of the border, leading to a catastrophe for Palestinian civilians. What happened at Sabra and Shatila sparked international outrage and a rebuke from Washington. Forty-two years later, Israel is risking falling into a Lebanese abyss once more. In this episode, historian Ahron Bregman, who was an IDF soldier during the siege of Beirut, discusses the causes of the carnage in 1982, why Israel may get stuck in Lebanon again as it fights Hezbollah, and the U.S. role in de-escalating the crisis.

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Russian exiles in the West may not be able to change, let alone save, their home country, which is locked in the grip of the Putin autocracy, at war in Ukraine, and in a long conflict with the United States. Yet the exiles are important beyond the realm of politics because their minds and talents enrich Western societies. In this episode, historian Michael Kimmage and Russian journalist and political scientist Maria Lipman, an exile herself, contend "the opposition has no chance of acquiring power in Russia in the foreseeable future." At the same time, Western political leaders and societies must avoid projecting their own beliefs onto the exiles, who find themselves in a very difficult position criticizing their home government from afar.

Further reading:

Exiles Cannot Save Russia by Michael Kimmage and Maria Lipman in Foreign Affairs (official publication of the Council on Foreign Relations)

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After the disastrous failures of the U.S. projects in Iraq and Afghanistan, many Americans have soured on nation-building, especially if it involves the deployment of U.S. troops in a hostile country for years on end. Americans also remember the fiasco in Somalia in 1993 or the hazy national interest when it came to intervening in the Balkans. In this episode, Keith Mines, a former U.S. Army officer and State Department diplomat, contends nation-building is more successful than its detractors are willing to concede. Mines, now an expert on post-conflict stabilization at the U.S. Institute of Peace, has worked in Latin America, Haiti, Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, and elsewhere.

Further reading:

Why Nation Building Matters: Political Consolidation, Building Security Forces, and Economic Development in Failed and Fragile States by Keith Mines

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As another presidential election looms, so does the possibility that the ultimate winner will lose the popular vote. The race is decided by the Electoral College, which critics say is anti-democratic body that distorts outcomes. Since 1988, Republican candidates have won the popular vote once (2004), but twice won the White House thanks to an Electoral College majority -- in 2000 and 2016. In this episode, historian Sean Wilentz delves into the origins of the Electoral College at the Constitutional Convention in 1787, debunking the argument that the Electoral College was a concession to slaveholders. Also, Wilentz discusses his new essay in the journal Liberties where he contends a Trump victory in November will imperil American democracy in ways the news media fail to take seriously.

Further reading: The Clear and Present Danger by Sean Wilentz in Liberties

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Is there a Biden Doctrine? What did it achieve? Where did it fail? The president sought to reset U.S. foreign policy after the unilateralism of the Trump years. Biden spoke of a global battle pitting democracies versus autocracies, and he reinforced U.S. alliances in Europe and Asia. Presidents from Truman to Reagan to George W. Bush saw their names attached to actionable ideas, i.e. containment of Communism, but whatever the name of the strategy U.S. foreign policy since 1945 has been designed to maintain primacy. In this episode, historian Jeffrey Engel delves into decades of doctrines and Biden's successes and failures.

Additional reading:

What Was the Biden Doctrine? by Jessica T. Mathews in Foreign Affairs

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A crushing economic crisis, caused by the subprime mortgage meltdown, and two failing wars were the backdrop for the election of 2008. At the onset of the year, a first-term Democratic senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, was a long shot taking on Hillary Clinton, the New York senator and former first lady with universal name recognition. On the Republican side, Arizona Senator John McCain emerged from a crowded primary field to choose little known Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, whose inane manner became the butt of late-night jokes, as his running mate. The outcome made history as Obama became the first Black president. In this episode, historian Jeremi Suri takes us back into the recent past to examine an election that seems more distant than it actually is, thanks to the earthquake that followed 8 years later.

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The Israeli military raids and unchecked settler violence in the West Bank are shifting, for a moment, the world's attention away from the ongoing war in Gaza -- and revealing the brutal realities of Palestinian life under military occupation. In July the U.N.'s top court issued a non-binding opinion saying Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories and expanding settlement activity violate international law. In this episode, Omar Rahman of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs delves into the history of Israel's occupation and settlement of the West Bank, which came under its control following the Six Day War in June 1967.

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In Israel (and the Palestinian territories), support for a two-state solution has dramatically dropped since the more optimistic years of the Oslo peace process. Since the Second Intifada from 2000, the Israeli peace camp "suffered domestic delegitimization," according to Dahlia Scheindlin, a political strategist and a public opinion expert who has advised on nine national campaigns in Israel among 15 countries. In this episode, Scheindlin explains why leftist politics and political parties have lost ground in Israel, which is now governed by the most right-wing coalition in its history.

Further reading:

Israel's Annexation of the West Bank Has Already Begun by Dahlia Scheindlin and Yael Berda in Foreign Affairs

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In our world of conflicts, a civil war in Africa is going mostly unnoticed in the United States, at least compared to the attention given to the wars in Ukraine and Israel. For the third time in its post-independence history (from 1956), Sudan is embroiled in a horrendous civil war full of massacres, the displacement of millions, and the potential for mass famine. In this episode, Alex de Waal, one of the world's foremost experts on Sudan, delves into the war's origins and the horrible reasons why the world seems helpless to stop it.

Go to historyasithappens.com to learn more.

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