Hotspotting

With vacancy rates at record lows and rents consuming more household income than ever… is Australia's rental crisis getting worse?

In this episode of The Property Playbook, host Tim Graham is joined by Terry Ryder, Founder of Hotspotting, to unpack the real drivers behind Australia's housing shortage — and why the situation continues to deteriorate. With national vacancy rates sitting around 1%, well below the ~3% level considered a balanced market, and more than 3,400 people arriving in Australia every day, the pressure on rental supply is intensifying — and there are no quick fixes in sight.

In This Episode, You'll Learn:

• Why Australia's rental crisis is fundamentally a supply and demand issue

• How vacancy rates have remained critically low for over two decades

• Why rents have risen from ~25% to over 33% of household income

• The role of government policy — and why it hasn't solved the problem

• Why changing tenant laws doesn't fix the core issue of supply

• The impact of taxes, fees and red tape on new housing development

• Why construction costs are approaching $1 million per home in major cities

• How regulation and compliance are driving up costs and delaying supply

• The risks of reducing investor incentives like negative gearing

• Why mum-and-dad investors supply over 90% of rental housing

• The reality that many landlords are operating at a loss despite rising rents

• Why rental caps and policy interventions could make the crisis worse

Key Takeaway

The rental crisis isn't new — and it isn't improving.

As Terry explains, the core issue is simple:

• Australia doesn't have enough homes — and we're not building them fast enough.
• Until supply increases meaningfully, vacancy rates will remain tight and rents will continue to rise.
• And while policy debates continue, the real risk is that well-intentioned changes may actually make the situation worse.

About The Property Playbook

The Property Playbook features weekly conversations with Australia's leading property experts — delivering practical, forward-looking insights to help investors make smarter decisions.

📊 For independent, forward-looking property research:

👉 https://www.hotspotting.com.au

🔔 Subscribe for more expert insights on the Australian property market #PropertyMarketAustralia #RentalCrisis #PropertyInvestment #Hotspotting #RealEstateAustralia #HousingCrisis #PropertyPlaybook

When global markets turn volatile, where does capital seek safety?

In this episode, we explore why Australian property continues to demonstrate resilience amid economic uncertainty, share market swings, and geopolitical disruption. Drawing on historical cycles including the dotcom crash, the Global Financial Crisis, and COVID, we examine a consistent theme: while equities react sharply to global events, Australian real estate remains underpinned by structural demand, limited supply, and long term fundamentals.

We unpack the key drivers shaping the market today, including population growth, housing shortages, infrastructure investment, and shifting investor behaviour in response to rising interest rates. You will also gain insight into why property is often viewed as a defensive asset class, offering stability, income potential, and a greater degree of control compared to more volatile investments.

If you are an investor, buyer, or simply looking to understand the forces influencing the Australian property market, this discussion provides data driven perspective and expert commentary to help you navigate uncertainty with confidence.

Tune in to explore why, in times of global disruption, Australian property continues to attract long term capital and remain a preferred strategy for disciplined investors.

Australia's housing crisis continues to dominate headlines, political debate and public discourse, yet meaningful progress remains elusive. In this episode, we take a clear, evidence-based look at why decades of inquiries, policy interventions and commentary have failed to materially improve housing affordability, supply and rental conditions across the country.

We unpack the structural drivers behind the shortage of dwellings, the persistent rise in construction costs and build times, and the disconnect between policy narratives and market realities. The discussion also challenges widely held assumptions about property investors, first-home buyers, taxation settings and the true forces shaping demand and supply in Australian property markets.

Rather than focusing on blame, this conversation examines the underlying dynamics that continue to constrain outcomes, including planning complexity, regulatory frameworks and supply-side limitations. It offers a grounded perspective for investors, industry professionals and policymakers seeking to better understand the Australian real estate landscape and make more informed strategic decisions.

If you are interested in property investment, housing economics, or the long-term outlook for Australian property markets, this episode provides a detailed and practical breakdown of what is actually driving the crisis and why it persists.

Are interest rate hikes really fixing inflation—or just shifting the pain?

In this episode, we take a hard look at the latest move by the Reserve Bank of Australia and unpack why raising rates may be a blunt, outdated response to a complex economic problem. With the cash rate climbing to 4.10% under Governor Michele Bullock, we examine who actually bears the cost—and why mortgage holders continue to carry the heaviest load.

Drawing on economic data and policy insights, we explore the real drivers of inflation in Australia, from energy prices and housing supply to government spending decisions led by Jim Chalmers and Anthony Albanese. This is a critical, no-nonsense analysis of why monetary policy alone cannot solve structurally driven inflation.

If you want a clearer, more strategic understanding of the Australian economy—and what needs to change—this episode is essential listening.

Australia's property market is under pressure like never before. Listings are low, vacancies are tight, and new supply is failing to meet demand. Why are prices and rents continuing to rise despite government interventions?

In this episode, we cut through the headlines to uncover the real drivers of the housing crunch. From shrinking rental stock to a stalled construction pipeline, we explore the structural challenges shaping the market and what it means for buyers, renters, and investors.

Tune in for expert insights, data-backed analysis, and a clear view of why scarcity is the true force behind rising property prices across Australia.

Want to know which Australian suburbs and regional markets are set to surge next? In this episode, we dive into the Price Predictor Index, Hotspotting's proven tool for identifying growth areas before the rest of the market catches on.

Hear how rising sales volumes act as early signals of property price growth and discover the methodology that has consistently predicted booms from Adelaide to Darwin. We break down the patterns, the trends, and the insights every property investor and market watcher needs to stay ahead.

If you're serious about property investment or spotting the next growth hotspot, this episode gives you expert guidance and data-driven foresight to make smarter decisions.

Are first home buyers really locked out of the Australian property market or is that just a headline-driven myth?

In this episode, we unpack the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and reveal what is actually happening on the ground. The numbers show first home buyers are not only active, they are a major force shaping demand and influencing property prices.

We cut through the noise to examine the real issue driving affordability pressures: constrained housing supply. With low listings, underbuilding, and intense competition at the entry level, first home buyers are adapting by borrowing more, adjusting expectations, and targeting different property types and locations.

This is a clear, data-driven analysis of Australian real estate that challenges the mainstream narrative and delivers practical insight into market dynamics.

In this episode: • What the latest ABS data reveals about first home buyer activity • Why the "locked out" narrative is misleading • The real impact of supply shortages on affordability • How first home buyers are adapting to enter the market • What it means for future property prices and demand

Subscribe for expert insights on Australian property trends, housing supply, and market performance.

Are you looking for the next property hotspot — but tired of backward-looking reports that tell you what's already happened?

In this episode, we reveal the Empirical Formula, a fact-based method I've developed over decades to identify locations poised for genuine future growth. From diverse local economies to major infrastructure projects and affordability, we break down the key factors that make certain suburbs stand out.

Learn how Hotspotting cuts through the hype and helps investors make smarter, forward-looking property decisions. Whether you're a first-time buyer or seasoned investor, understanding these principles can change the way you approach the market.

📖 For a deeper dive into the Empirical Formula and how to spot growth areas, explore my book "Why Property Values Rise", available at bookstores and online via Booktopia and Amazon.

In this special founder interview, Terry Ryder shares the story behind Hotspotting — from launching the business in a garage in Maleny in 2006 to becoming one of Australia's most respected independent real estate research platforms.

What sparked the idea?

Why did Terry believe there needed to be a better way to identify property hotspots? And what has been the core principle behind Hotspotting's success for two decades?

Over the past 20 years, Hotspotting has built its reputation on something simple but powerful: We don't just report what has happened — we identify what's likely to happen next. In this conversation,

Terry reflects on:

• The origin of Hotspotting
• The philosophy behind forward-looking indicators Being told the business wouldn't work
• The turning point that proved it would
• The importance of independence and integrity
• And why the next chapter is even more exciting than the first
• While we're celebrating 20 years in business, this isn't a look backward.

As Terry says at the end of this interview: "We're only just getting started." If you've followed Hotspotting over the years — thank you. If you're new here — welcome to the next chapter.

Australia's housing crisis isn't easing — it's getting worse, and the numbers explain why.

In this episode, we unpack the reality behind the Housing Australia Future Fund, the Federal Government's 1.2 million homes target, and the growing gap between promises and delivery. We look at stalled projects, missed state targets, rising construction costs, land shortages, and the heavy hand of bureaucracy that's slowing new housing to a crawl.

This is a clear, data-driven conversation about why affordable housing is becoming harder to deliver, why rents and prices keep rising, and what's really holding Australia back from building the homes it needs.

If you want straight talk on Australian housing policy, supply shortages, and the future of housing affordability, this episode is worth your time.