The housing market had a tough year in 2023 as tight supply and high costs of borrowing continued to create challenges for buyers and sellers. With rates declining to a 7-month low late last year, the market began to see an increase in activity at the start of the year, but the improvement is expected to be gradual. Rising insurance costs and uncertainty in the commercial real estate sector will remain some of the market risks in 2024.

Mortgage rates have shown improvements lately as Fed’s officials softened their tones after their latest FOMC meeting and suggested that the Central Bank could be done with rate hikes. Meanwhile, sales of existing homes in California dipped again by double-digits on a year-over-year basis in October as costs of borrowing remained elevated while supply continued to be tight.

Home sales in California declined further last month as buyers and sellers continued to struggle with the high-mortgage-interest rate landscape not seen in the last two decades. The sharp increase in the past few weeks was due primarily to the Fed’s announcement at their latest meeting that rates will be kept “higher for longer”, which dashed market participants’ hope for more significant rate cuts in 2024. As investors continue to assess the economic outlook and the uncertainty brought on by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, there will be more volatility on rates in the short term.

With Fed policymakers seeing rates staying higher for longer, what will the economy and the housing market look like in 2024? What could some of the risks be in the upcoming year? Tune in to listen to our economists discuss the latest California economic and market outlook.

Join C.A.R. economists as they discuss mortgage rates continuing to trend up and has reached the highest level in 21 years. With costs of borrowing staying high, housing affordability dipped in the second quarter and will likely stay low for the rest of the year. Homebuyers, while still very interested in buying, are facing challenges on both the affordability side and the supply side. Home sales have been affected as such and will remain soft in coming months.

Join C.A.R. economists as they discuss the latest Fed rate hike in July of 2023. This is contextualized against a backdrop of an economy that remains increasing resilient to external pressures and higher interest rates with jobs and GDP still running ahead of expectations. This has also translated through to stronger home sales and rising prices in California as demand continues to outstrip supply.

Join C.A.R. economists as they discuss the results of the June 2023 Federal Reserve meeting and the expected impact on mortgage rates. They also discuss the broader macroeconomic environment including the likelihood of the U.S. dipping into recession and an update on the California housing market in May.

Join C.A.R. economists as they discuss the latest developments on the debt ceiling debate moving through congress, the implications for interest rates, and the broader macro-economic context as the Fed prepares to meet again in June for another rate decision.

Macro Check-In and Market Update (Episode 105) by CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS and the CENTER FOR CALIFORNIA REAL ESTATE

Join C.A.R. economists as they discuss the recent failure of several California-based banks as the technology sector begins to lose momentum. They also discuss how recent events could impact future Fed rate decisions and the short and medium term trajectory for mortgage rates before turning to recent developments in the market data and what we can expect as the Spring homebuying season kicks into gear.