HyperChange

Tesla reports record Q1 production of 103K vehicles, and record Q1 deliveries of 88K. Model Y production is scaling, and Shanghai Gigafactory output keeps climbing. These numbers were far better than my estimates, and signal Tesla's business was thriving before the economic shutdown. Here's my take on the delivery & production report.

I'm conservatively expecting Tesla will deliver ~65,000 cars in Q1, growing about 5% year over year. This factors in the factory shutdown at the end of March, and the macro economic crisis that has been unfolding. I've updated my full year delivery estimates to just 350,000. I hope I'm being too negative, but am preparing for the worst. In this video I show how this level of deliveries will impact Tesla's financials.

Is Peloton selling a $2,245 exercise bike? Or democratizing home fitness? A little bit of both. This dynamic business model combination of luxury hardware and premium software streaming classes, is disrupting the fitness industry. I'm a new Peloton shareholder, and think the company has huge potential to expand into new products (like the Tread and rowing machine), lower prices, and expand into digital content (Peloton App).

GM and Ford reported huge (and growing) losses in Q4 2019, before the economic crisis began. Both companies have suspended 2020 guidance and have drawn down $15B+ on credit lines. Are we witnessing a slow motion implosion/bankruptcy for America's two largest automakers? It looks like it. Reuters reports, both companies are planning to make 320,000 EVs for North America in 2026 (combined!) ... that would be less than Tesla did in 2019. This is super disappointing, and makes their chance of a turnaround look even lower.

I've been adding to my Bitcoin position in the past week. The cryptocurrency currently trades at a network value of $120B, or just about 4.5% of the $2.7T it moves annually. This compares to fintech companies like Paypal, that trade at ~14% of annualized money moved. I think the long-term thesis for Bitcoin to become digital gold, and be worth several $T in network value is more intact than ever. Governmental policies reacting to this economic crisis will fuel more fiat currency printing, and potentially negative interest rates ... these macroeconomic conditions are making more more bullish on the need for Bitcoin than ever. The only way to get out of this crisis will be to print absurd amounts of capital (for both the US and Europe). What are your thoughts about Bitcoin's potential and valuation??

S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2020 are dropping rapidly, as analysts price in the impact of this unprecedented economic crisis. Estimates have fallen more than 4% in just the past month, and I think they will fall another 10% (at least) next month. Right now, my rough guesstimate for 2020 S&P 500 EBIT per share is $100 ... about 39% lower than they were in 2019 (~$163). What is your guess? Do you think markets will fall lower?

Today on Twitter Donald Trump gave the go ahead to Tesla, GM and Ford to begin manufacturing ventilators, to deal with a potential shortage. Tesla has significant experience building HVAC systems in house, since the days of its original roadster (2008), as well as 'BioWeapon Defense Mode' for the Model X. I think this is an awesome story, and is a reason I'm proud to own Tesla stock!

Tesla has released an official 'Operational Update' about dealing with the current economic crisis. The company is shutting down both its Fremont, CA and Buffalo, NY factories for an indefinite period of time (my guess is at least two weeks). Tesla says it has plenty of cash on hand to "successfully navigate an extended period of uncertainty." I think the silver lining to all of this Tesla news is Shanghai's Gigafactory. It appears to be up and running and producing vehicles at record levels. This should help offset losses from Fremont going forward. At this time, Gigafactory Nevada will remain open.

Zoom stock is up 82% in 2020, outperforming nearly every asset in the world. Can this recent video conference IPO live up to the hype of its $40B valuation? In this video, I analyze Zoom's financials, growth rate, and what the long-term potential will be if Eric Yuan's vision is realized. What are your thoughts on Zoom?

Elon Musk offered to help make medical supplies for US hospitals (like ventilators, masks, etc) and Mayor de Blasio is taking him up on the offer. After a long twitter exchange (prompted by Nate Silver), it appears as if Tesla/SpaceX are reaching out to the New York City government and may supply them with direly needed medical equipment. I think this is an awesome initiative by Elon, and could be a win/win. NYC gets help, and Tesla's factory employees have something to do.