HyperChange

The coronavirus originating in Wuhan China has infected 24,000+ people in 24 countries. If it keeps spreading, this could be a near-term headwind for the macro growth environment. Is this a threat to global financial markets? Will this significantly delay the growth of Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory?

Analysis of Tesla's Q4 2019 financials, shareholder letter and conference call. Revenue hit a record high of $$7.4B, EBIT was $359M and Free Cash Flow came in at $1B. Model Y deliveries start in Q1, Demand for the Cybertruck and Made in China Model 3's is overwhelming. Battery investor day will likely be in April, and will have some huge announcements about scaling battery production and Tesla's next generation Plaid powertrain

Netflix reported record revenue ($20B) and record earnings ($2.6B) in 2019 ... but also record negative operating cashflow of $2.9B. The company claims cashflow will improve from here as subscriber growth and revenue outpace original content spending. Will this be possible in the wake of massive competition from Disney, Comcast and others ... ?

Tesla will report its earnings after the bell on Wednesday. I'm estimating revenue of ~$7B, and EBIT of ~$400M, with exceptionally strong free cash flow ($700M!?). Additionally, I'll be looking for an update on Model Y deliveries, Gigafactory Shanghai production ramp and 2020 delivery guidance. What are your expectations for Tesla's report later this week??

An interview with Matt Joyce about Elon Musk's VTOL Electric Jet idea & how it could revolutionize the flying experience. Assuming ~5% annual improvements in battery energy density, this technology could be ready as soon as 2028.

At the Model 3 delivery event in Shanghai, Elon Musk hinted at Tesla's future plans in China. The company will set up a new design and engineering center, where they are planning to design a new EV from scratch, for "worldwide consumption." Does this imply Tesla is working on a smaller car/new EV form factor that they will build in China and export around the world? It sounds like it!

Apple changed the way we think about phones, and Tesla is going to change the way we think about cars. Software is eating the world, and the automotive market is no exception. Tesla's software-first approach to building EVs & the collection of billions of miles of Autopilot data, is ushering in the future of the transportation industry. This isn't a car company, it's a computer on wheels on company :)

Tomorrow (December 30th), Tesla will deliver its first 15 'Made In China' Model 3s! This marks a huge milestone for Gigafactory 3 Shanghai, which began construction in 2019, and has vehicles rolling off the line just 11 months later ... This may be the fastest a factory has been built in the history of the automotive industry. Now the question is how fast will these sales ramp? I'm estimating Tesla will deliver ~80,000 Model 3's in China in 2020, and end the year at a ~150,000 cars/yr production rate.

Is your Model 3 a $40,000 electric vehicle, or a $40,000 video game console? Both!! In the past year Tesla has began to launch video games you can play in your car. I think this is a sneak preview of entertainment in a self-driving/autonomous future & an amazing example of the possibilities that over the air software updates enable. In the long-term, Tesla's active user/driver/rider-base will be in the Ms (~800K today)  and offer a compelling opportunity for 3rd party app & game developers ... I think video games alone could be a $1B+ business for the company in the long-run ... Am I crazy?

Tesla stock hits all-time highs as the market begins to look towards 2020, and the company's growth potential with Gigafactory 3 Shanghai and the Model Y. Per my estimates, Tesla could deliver 615,000 cars in 2020, produce $36B in revenue and be significantly profitable. What are your projections for next year??