I increasingly believe that to invest in today’s markets, one needs a macroeconomic framework. Pure momentum or valuation approaches are insufficient. I have been keen to talk with people who understand the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape we operate in and have mental models for using these dynamics to increase the likelihood of identifying risk asymmetries. 

Two of my guests this year from the world of global thematic investing, David Dredge and Marvin Barth, both cited Mark Farrington as someone they refer to for insight, particularly on developments in Asia. 

Mark Farrington writes about global thematic investing in his Watchtower series on Substack: The Global Watchtower, The Dollar Watchtower, and the BoJ Watchtower. Mark is as prolific as he is insightful. 

It was a great pleasure to catch up with Mark for a fascinating conversation about his experience and learnings from a long career following developments in Asia —from the rise of Japan in the 70s and 80s to its lost decade and the rise of China. 

In particular, I was keen to ask Mark whether Japan can normalise its monetary policy without collapsing the global financial system. Will China follow Japan into a lost decade of debt deflation? And how poorly understood Asian markets might impact our economies and financial markets in a new world order marked by the reassertion of economic nationalism. 

Mark delivered a masterclass of the how’s and why’s of global thematic investing, it is an episode that should have a long shelf life.  It is one of those episodes that I have learnt more from each time I have listened to it. 

But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; it's just for your information and entertainment. Please seek personal financial advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. 

With that, please enjoy my conversation with global thematic investor Mark Farrington.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

I increasingly believe that to invest in today’s markets, one needs a macroeconomic framework. Pure momentum or valuation approaches are insufficient. I have been keen to talk with people who understand the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape we operate in and have mental models for using these dynamics to increase the likelihood of identifying risk asymmetries. 

Two of my guests this year from the world of global thematic investing, David Dredge and Marvin Barth, both cited Mark Farrington as someone they refer to for insight, particularly on developments in Asia. 

Mark Farrington writes about global thematic investing in his Watchtower series on Substack: The Global Watchtower, The Dollar Watchtower, and the BoJ Watchtower. Mark is as prolific as he is insightful. 

It was a great pleasure to catch up with Mark for a fascinating conversation about his experience and learnings from a long career following developments in Asia —from the rise of Japan in the 70s and 80s to its lost decade and the rise of China. 

In particular, I was keen to ask Mark whether Japan can normalise its monetary policy without collapsing the global financial system. Will China follow Japan into a lost decade of debt deflation? And how poorly understood Asian markets might impact our economies and financial markets in a new world order marked by the reassertion of economic nationalism. 

Mark delivered a masterclass of the how’s and why’s of global thematic investing, it is an episode that should have a long shelf life.  It is one of those episodes that I have learnt more from each time I have listened to it. 

But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; it's just for your information and entertainment. Please seek personal financial advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. 

With that, please enjoy my conversation with global thematic investor Mark Farrington.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

As Keir Starmer and Ed Miliband return from COP30 in Brazil, I wanted to take a look at the UK’s energy policy amid a global backdrop suggesting the world is turning away from net-zero absolutism towards more human-centric policy options. 

The Overton window on energy policy is being pushed aside by the likes of Tony Blair, Bill Gates, and, significantly, by the lobbying interests of big technology, and resource nationalism is being reasserted. 

In the run-up to the next General Election, the UK’s energy policy will form a key battleground, and in particular, our sky-high energy prices and the future of our North Sea hydrocarbons industry will be critical factors in the debate.  

So, I was delighted to be joined, last week, by Kathryn Porter, Watt Logic energy consultant and Telegraph columnist, and Martin Copeland Chief Financial Officer of North Sea oil and gas operator, Serica Energy for a discussion about the UK’s energy policy and the future of the North Sea, for a hugely insightful conversation. 

While we covered a lot of ground, the key question is whether the UK is prepared to sacrifice its North Sea oil and gas industry to the god of net-zero.
 

While it has already been severely damaged, it is not too late for government policy to save the jobs and energy reserves at stake, but action is needed in the upcoming Budget. This significant event could mark a turning point for an industry on the brink of destruction from the irrational pursuit of territorial net-zero at all costs. 

As ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but hopefully you will find it both entertaining and informative. Please seek personal financial advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. 

And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Kathryn Porter and Martin Copeland.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

As COP delegates use a road cut through the Amazon to attend a gathering of people who tell us we need to make sacrifices to protect the planet, the wider world is pivoting away from climate alarmism toward more human-centric policy choices.

UK energy policy is becoming a critical political battleground ahead of the next election, and the North Sea hydrocarbon industry is a focal point.

As Professor Sir Dieter Helm said this week in the Times,

"Global climate change won’t be mitigated by halting licences in the UK’s sector of the North Sea and instead importing oil and gas from elsewhere (including the Norwegian sector). Replacing North Sea gas with American LNG is environmentally much worse than “home-grown” gas. It also just makes the balance of payments worse, alongside all the imported gas from Norway and the imported electricity from Europe."

I recently spoke to Watt Energy consultant Kathryn Porter and Serica Energy plc CFO Martin Copeland to discuss this very issue. How long do we have to save the North Sea from this ideologically riven madness? What steps do we need to take to fix our astronomically high energy costs? Is the UK prepared to sacrifice its hydrocarbon industry to the gods of net-zero?

Coming soon, In The Company of Mavericks, on all good podcast apps ...

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

What’s happening to gold? 

Is the so-called debasement trade over? Have we just seen another FOMO driven momentum bubble hit a blowout top?

Is that it for another decade? 

Of course, a bubble is a bull market that we are not involved in, and from the outside, the recent frenzy over gold is just another case of market hysteria, right? Conspiracy theories like the dollar debasement are just, well, conspiracy theories, right? 

This week I invited two long standing and respected sound money advocates to share their thoughts on gold, where it came from, where it might be heading and why. 

We had a great chat.  

Dominic Frisby has recently published his latest book, The Secret History of Gold: Myth, Money, Politics & Power and is also the man behind the excellent Flying Frisby Substack …

Wealth manager Tim Price of Price Value Partners is also the author of Investing Through the Looking Glass, a rational guide to irrational financial markets.  

We discussed why gold is valuable, why the gold price has recently been so strong and how investors should think about gold as an investment asset class in a world of government deficits, spiralling debt and uncertain geopolitics

But as ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; hopefully, it is informative and entertaining. Please take professional advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. 

And with that, please enjoy my conversation with Dominic Frisby and Tim Price   

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

Earlier this week, I chatted with Dominic Frisby of the Flying Frisby and Tim Price of Price Value Partners to talk about gold and related issues.

I asked them: Is the fiat debasement inevitable? Should we be buying the dip in precious metals prices? And much, much more ....

Don't miss it. Make sure you are subscribed, dropping soon on all good podcast apps. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

Two of my favourite Substackers, Doomberg and The Brawl Street Journal, have recently written about the future of Europe and its predicament in a rapidly changing world. And from their differing perspectives, they both agreed that it is not good.

So, earlier this week I brought them together to share their views, one from the perspective of an experienced trade dispute lawyer and former policymaker in Berlin, the other a straight talking energy analyst and green chicken from his coop in mid-western American flyover country.

We discussed the factors that have led Europe to its current position, its role in a multipolar world, and its struggles to adapt to these new, urgent realities. 

I must warn you that the consequences they draw are not positive for Europe or its institutions, and they pull no punches in their delivery. In short, they agree that the consequences of current established European policies will likely lead to a collapse of the EU; a consequence of the delusion, incompetence and intransigence of its established political class. 

But as always, nothing you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but solely for your information and hopefully entertainment.

I began by asking each of them about the origins of the EU and how Europe got itself into the position it finds itself today. 

Please enjoy my conversation with Doomberg and Brawlster.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

Doomberg and The Brawl Street Journal have published pieces recently about the economic, political and financial predicament of Europe and the EU in our rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. Both argue that it doesn't look good. 

So, earlier this week, I brought them together to share their views. We discussed how we got here, the main factors, and how Europe is positioned in the emerging multipolar world order. I must warn you, they don't hold any punches. 

Full episode coming soon, please subscribe. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.     

Have you ever wondered why some equities earn the special designation of quality compounder? It sounds easy when you read about Charlie Munger or Nick Sleep buying Costco and holding it forever. But everyone now knows the Costco story and how great it is. We can buy that great business, but we risk paying the wrong price.
 
 So, what enables such businesses to compound? How can we identify their critical characteristics to improve our odds of buying them at a fair or even low valuation?
 
I recently had the chance to speak with two high-calibre professional investors who are passionate about doing just this and who spend their time searching the UK market for precisely these situations. These two highly experienced UK equity specialists started their careers in the 1990s at what was Mercury Asset Management and is today BlackRock.
 
Simon Young, among other things, writes The Curious Compounder Substack, and Mark Wharrier has a varied portfolio, including co-hosting the excellent Business Case podcast and is a colleague of mine on the investment committee at Onward Opportunities Ltd.

In this episode, we discuss Wise and Goodwin as examples of how very different businesses can compound growth. They share key characteristics, such as high return on capital, growth capacity and duration. 

Very often, these businesses are founder-led or family-owned, allowing them to pivot when circumstances change and take a considered long-term view about investing. 

We also discuss acquisitional compound growth typified by UK-listed Halma and Diploma, or North American-listed Constellation Software. These companies derive their compounding from making serial acquisitions funded from internally generated cash flows. 

Finally, we discuss those companies that might earn the serial compounder tag in the years to come.

But of course, as always, none of what you are about to hear is any type of advice, but just for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing your money in these crazy markets. 

With that said, please enjoy my conversation with Mark Wharrier and Simon Young.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Ever wondered why some equities get that special tag of quality compounder? It sounds easy when you read about Charlie Munger or Nick Sleep buying Costco and holding it forever. But everyone knows the Costco story and how great it is. You risk buying a great business at the wrong price.

What enables such businesses to compound? How can you identify their critical characteristics so that you can increase the odds of buying them at a fair or low valuation?

I recently had the chance to speak with two high-calibre and professional investors who are passionate about doing just this and spending their time searching the UK market for exactly these situations. These two highly experienced UK equity fund managers both started their careers in the 1990s at what was Mercury Asset Management and is today BlackRock.

Simon Young, among other things, writes The Curious Compounder Substack, and Mark Wharrier has a varied current portfolio, including co-hosting the excellent Business Case podcast and is a colleague of mine on the investment committee at Onward Opportunities Ltd.

COMING SOON on all good podcast platforms ... subscribe to get more great episodes. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.