Tom and Don tackle the impossible task of spotting market bubbles in real time, leaning on insights from Jason Zweigand Eugene Fama to argue that if bubbles were truly predictable, they wouldn’t exist. They discuss soaring semiconductor and AI-related stocks, speculative manias from tulips to SPACs to Bitcoin, and why diversification and disciplined rebalancing beat emotional market timing every time. Listener questions cover tax-loss harvesting and wash sales involving VT, VTI, and VXUS ETFs, family conversations about money, Roth conversion strategy for a wealthy near-retiree, and Dimensional’s refusal to chase hot IPOs despite the S&P 500’s changing rules. Along the way, there’s plenty of classic TRM banter about giant brains, vacation boredom, and the dangers of trying to outsmart markets that are probably smarter than all of us combined.

0:05 Bubble noises, market mania, and why everyone thinks they can spot bubbles

1:11 Jason Zweig on semiconductor stocks soaring nearly 40% in a month

2:23 Emerging markets, small value, and global stocks compared to AI-driven speculation

3:39 Eugene Fama explains why bubbles are impossible to identify in real time

4:26 Dot-coms, Bitcoin, SPACs, and the legendary tulip bulb bubble

5:03 Why “doing nothing” often beats reacting emotionally to market fears

5:51 Jason Zweig’s sign of a bubble: when critics get attacked instead of debated

7:15 Rebalancing, diversification, and why the S&P 500 alone isn’t enough

9:41 Listener question on tax-loss harvesting, wash sales, and replacing VT with VTI and VXUS

14:05 Why families should talk openly about money instead of outsourcing financial education to TikTok

17:44 Near-retiree with $7.3 million asks about Roth conversions and paying taxes from IRAs

20:36 Dimensional responds to S&P rule changes allowing earlier IPO inclusion

21:15 Why Dimensional avoids IPOs during their first year after going public

22:39 Allbirds’ collapse from a $2.2 billion IPO to a $39 million sale

24:47 Why waiting before buying IPOs may reduce risk

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