Professional managers of farmland are indicating that cash rents will rise in 2022. Typically periods of higher returns lead to higher cash rents. However, increasing cash rents now has risks to farmers. Higher returns in recent years have occurred because of trend or higher yields, relatively high prices, and Federal payments through ad hoc programs such as the Market Facilitation Program and Coronavirus Food Assistance Program. A return to average commodity prices from 2014 to 2019 would lead to very low and likely negative farmer returns.