Insights Now

Despite lagging the broader index, industrial stocks performed well in 2024, gaining over 17% on a total return basis. Sector fundamentals, however, have been more challenged. After an impressive post-COVID recovery supported double-digit earnings growth in 2022, industrial earnings have been in the doldrums alongside U.S. manufacturing activity. In fact, on a year-over-year basis, the sector is on pace to see earnings contract for the last three quarters of 2024. That said, prospects ahead look brighter. With AI and policy tailwinds, increased focus on domestic infrastructure investment and the Fed now easing policy, earnings growth is expected to accelerate in 2025, providing investors with a broad menu of investment options to choose from within the sector.

On this episode, Gabriela Santos, is joined by Rob Maloney, an equity research analyst covering industrials and a co-portfolio manager here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

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When people think of the financial sector, they typically think of boring businesses like banks or insurance companies. But the ongoing global shift to electronic payments has created a new, growthier industry of financial technology companies. These businesses tend to feature recurring revenues, high free cash flow, and low capital expenditures. The financial services sector, which houses Visa and Mastercard, returned 28% last year, while the consumer finances sector, home to credit card companies like American Express and Capital One, returned 55%, outperforming the Magnificent 7. Continued growth in consumer spending, a steeper yield curve, and prospects for deregulation could support further upside, though there are risks if regulatory relief isn’t as significant as markets expect. Nonetheless, for investors looking for high-quality growth opportunities outside of mega-cap tech, fintech could certainly be a good place to start.

On this episode of Insights Now, my new co-host, Gabriela Santos, will be joined by David Chan, an equity research analyst covering payment and business services companies here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss what David is seeing across this space.

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Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

In this episode of Alternative Realities, we delve into the evolving landscape of alternative investments and their growing role in institutional portfolios. As the world of alternative investing becomes more accessible, we’ll explore how institutions have historically leveraged these assets for diversification and enhanced returns. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, is joined by Kathryn Pasqualone, Client Advisor within our North America Institutional business, to discuss key themes such as vintage year diversification, liquidity considerations, and the importance of strategic and tactical asset allocation.

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U.S. equities have been on a tear in recent years. After climbing 26% in 2023, the S&P 500 finished up 25% on a total return basis in 2024, marking the best two-year stretch for the index since the late 90s. That said, with a select few companies driving the bulk of this rally, markets have become unbalanced, and concentration risk remains a significant issue heading into 2025. In times like these, active management is as important as ever. Our thirteenth season of Insights Now, titled “The Analyst’s Edge: A day in the life of equity research analysts,” will be all about the research backing our portfolio managers’ investment decisions. We will sit down with best-in-class buy-side equity research analysts from across J.P. Morgan, exploring a range of sectors and diving deeper into the most exciting trends driving markets today. With a new administration taking the White House, 2025 is likely to be another exciting yet volatile year for equity investors, so stay tuned to learn more about the opportunities we are following most closely.

At the heart of the recent equity market rally sits the semiconductor industry. Home to companies like Nvidia, Broadcom and other key beneficiaries of the AI frenzy, semiconductor stocks gained over 75% in 2024, far outpacing the broader market. That said, semiconductor applications extend far beyond just artificial intelligence. Companies serving traditional end-markets, like automotive, consumers, aerospace or defense, have lagged behind. While artificial intelligence will remain a key source of demand for the industry, improving demand from these other end-users could drive the next leg of the rally.

To share the latest on the semiconductor industry, Gabriela Santos, the new co-host, will be joined by Eric Ghernati, a technology-focused equity research analyst here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

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Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

As the U.S. economy continues its robust growth into 2025, this episode of Alternate Realities delves into the complexities of investing amidst challenges like inflation, interest rate volatility and market concentration. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, is joined by Oksana Aronov, Head of Market Strategy and Alternative Fixed Income, and Hamilton Reiner, Portfolio Manager and Head of U.S. Equity Derivatives. They discuss the importance of diversification and strategic hedging in both fixed income and equity markets, emphasizing the need for absolute return strategies. The conversation also highlights the potential for unlocking value beyond the "magic seven" stocks, offering valuable insights into navigating today's evolving financial landscape.

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Despite last year's excellent returns in public markets, alternative assets are garnering increased attention due to their income diversification benefits, high equity valuations and the potential for above-trend inflation. As alternative investments become more accessible to the public, allocations to these assets are expected to rise in the coming years. This trend underscores the importance of general education and thought leadership in the field of alternative investments. This is precisely the mission of the Guide to Alternatives and the Alternative Realities podcast. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Aaron Mulvihill, the newest Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, who will be focusing specifically on alternative assets.

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The end of the year is near, and that means everyone is comparing their Spotify Wrapped and Apple Music Replays, making the case for why their most-listened-to song is the best. We wanted to do something similar for Insights Now. That is why, for our final episode of season 12, we will reflect on some of the most important takeaways from the 23 episodes we recorded this year. From exploring the fastest-growing themes in alternatives to navigating the complexities of the U.S. election, we’ve covered a lot of ground, so stay tuned as we recap our “greatest hits” of 2024.

This episode explores the main themes and insights from the past year. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gabriela Santos, the Chief Strategist for the Americas at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and new co-host for the Insights Now podcast.

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Explore the full Investment Outlook here. 

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

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In this episode of Alternative Realities, we’re going to explore the transportation sector's resilience amid geopolitical and market disruptions. we'll talk about how transport assets, like ships and planes, have shown stability during events such as the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. The discussion highlights the sector's critical role in global trade, the impact of regulations like the Jones Act and the evolving landscape influenced by tariffs and China's economic activity.

Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist is joined by Anurag Agarwal, Head Portfolio Manager for our Global Transportation Group, to discuss the distinction between opportunistic and core investment strategies in the transport sector, emphasizing the stability and income potential of leasing critical transport assets.

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In recent years, the notion of “correct” portfolio construction has been challenged and diversification has become unpopular. Stocks and bonds have shown an increased propensity to move together, calling into question the efficacy of the classic “60/40” portfolio. Moreover, sustained outperformance in select segments of global financial markets has caused portfolios to drift away from target allocations and left many investors with little motivation to allocate elsewhere. However, with a new year comes new forces driving markets, and the winners of the past may not be the winners of the future. To prepare portfolios for any unforeseen risks that may arise in 2025, diversification remains the best option, although the ways in which investors can diversify may look different than before.

To share his thoughts on diversification in the year ahead, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

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Explore the full Investment Outlook here. 

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

The pandemic, geopolitical tension and climate change have revived industrial policy around the globe. In the U.S., the IIJA, IRA, and CHIPs act collectively represent the largest investment in infrastructure since the Cold War. In particular, there are significant opportunities in modernizing and expanding the electrical grid as decarbonization and data centers drive up demand. In addition to these secular tailwinds, core infrastructure’s steady, uncorrelated cash flows make it a valuable portfolio diversifier. Today, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Chris Simard, an Investment Specialist in the J.P. Morgan Infrastructure and Investment Group, to parse through all of this and more.

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