Insights Now

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Despite uncertainty at the onset, 2024 is shaping up to be yet another impressive year for the economy and markets. A resilient consumer has put the U.S. on pace for another year of above-trend growth, and the S&P 500 has rallied over 25% so far, breaching $6,000 for the first time in history. That said, with a new year comes new opportunities as well as challenges. As the cyclical imbalances exacerbated by the pandemic and tight monetary policy continue to improve, economic conditions should normalize further in 2025, although a new element of policy uncertainty introduced by the incoming Trump administration and Republican-controlled Congress threaten to cloud the outlook. While new policies might hurt prospects in some asset classes, they should benefit others, and investors have plenty to be excited about heading into the new year.

To dive deeper into our 2025 outlook, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gabriela Santos, Chief Strategist for the Americas here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

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Explore the full Investment Outlook here. 

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

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In this episode of Alternative Realities, we’re going to be exploring the current landscape of commercial real estate, highlighting opportunities beyond the office sector. We’ll talk about the ongoing housing shortage in the U.S., which has been made worse by past overbuilding, lack of workers and zoning issues. The industrial sector is thriving, driven by the rise in e-commerce and logistics, with a significant increase in delivery vehicles. Retail is evolving, with neighborhood strip centers and high-end luxury performing well, while middle-tier malls struggle. Real estate is a valuable component of investment portfolios, offering risk mitigation, inflation protection and consistent cash flow.

Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist is joined by Chad Tredway, Head of Real Estate Americas at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the opportunities he’s seeing on the market. Chad leads our investment management business in the United States for real estate and his team focuses on the $70 billion of real estate that we own.

Timestamps:

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For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing

Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

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As we usher in a new year, the investment landscape is almost certainly set to change. That’s why in our twelfth season of Insights Now titled, “Preparing for the path forward,” Dr. David Kelly will sit down with portfolio managers and strategists from across J.P. Morgan to discuss their key takeaways from 2024, and what they expect from the economy and markets in 2025. With the new year just around the corner, tune in to hear what opportunities we are most excited about, and what risks we are most mindful of, heading into the new year. With the U.S. election in the rear-view mirror and the Federal Reserve finally easing policy, the forces driving financial markets in 2025 could differ greatly from 2024. Policy uncertainty should step in for election uncertainty, and the monetary policy debate will center around how quickly the Fed will cut, not when it will begin cutting. Still, with the U.S. economy displaying impressive resilience and structural tailwinds supporting prospects abroad, there remains a wide menu of attractive opportunities for investors to consider across global stocks and bonds, and plenty of ways to diversify. That said, markets can move quickly. Investors striving for alpha should be active in portfolios and allocate to their highest conviction ideas instead of sitting passively on the sidelines. To share some of his highest conviction ideas for the year ahead, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Phil Camporeale, Portfolio Manager in our Multi Asset Solutions group here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

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Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

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In this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Ash Williams, Vice Chair of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Ash served as Chief Investment Officer and Executive Director of the Florida State Board of Administration, where he oversaw $250 billion in assets. He has extensive experience as an institutional investor in both public and private markets. Throughout their conversation, they cover a range of topics surrounding the importance of alternatives in a portfolio and the best approach to constructing a portfolio with alternatives.

Timestamps:

Resources:

For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing

Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube.

On previous episodes, we’ve discussed the muted return outlook for a traditional 60/40 portfolio, and the return enhancing potential of Private Equity and Venture Capital. As companies wait longer to IPO, investors are turning to private markets for access to the fastest growing part of a business’s lifecycle. In this episode, we’re going to explore the opportunities in private healthcare and biotechnology. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gaurav Gupta, Managing Partner of Life Science Private Capital within J.P. Morgan Private Capital. He is a neurosurgeon turned investor, and we’re so excited to have him here to discuss the trends he’s seeing in the market.

Timestamps:

• Typical healthcare investments (1:01)

Resources:

• For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing

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On previous episodes, we’ve discussed what’s called the “democratization of alternatives.” Put simply, alternatives have become more accessible to individuals as the investment vehicles have evolved to address pain points like high minimums and long lockup periods. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, is joined by Anastasia Amoroso, the Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital. The platform is designed to help clients navigate the world of alternative investments. We’ll hear from Anastasia about what iCapital does to help individuals feel confident investing in alternatives, as well as her perspective on the trends we’re seeing in the market.

Resources:

For more resources on the Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

The U.S election is just a few short weeks away, and many investors are picking through campaign-trail noise to decipher what policies each administration would pursue and their implications. With both Former President Trump’s and Vice President Harris’s campaigns promising hefty amounts of spending but few clues on how it will be funded, the longer-term trajectory for taxes, the deficit and federal debt is largely uncertain, but must be addressed. According to the Congressional Budget Office, U.S. debt held by the public as a percent of GDP is expected to increase from a likely 98% in fiscal 2024 to over 120% in 2034. This assumes that provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act sunset as scheduled and increase taxes by $4 trillion at the end of 2025. If these tax cuts are extended, however, debt held by the public could rise to 130% of GDP over the same period. Regardless, policies from either side of the aisle will impact the fiscal health of the United States, and as a result, the balance of risks and opportunities that investors must consider when building portfolios.

Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, is back with Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the different paths forward for fiscal policy.

Resources:

For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

Within our financial system, the idea that the Federal Reserve should operate as an independent entity is fundamental. Importantly, the Federal Reserve is a political institution that is accountable to Congress, but also to the public, and its independence ensures it can conduct monetary policy in a way that it perceives to be in support of its dual mandate without undue political pressures. However, some candidates on the campaign trail have expressed interest in giving other branches of government a say in the Fed’s decision-making process, meaning that this election could have major implications for the ways in which monetary policy is conducted, its efficacy and the public’s confidence in the central bank.

To explore the implications of any changes to the Federal Reserve’s independence, Gabriela Santos is excited to be back with Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Resources:

For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub

Listen to the audio version of the Insights Now podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on Youtube.

In this episode of Alternative Realities, we’re going to be exploring the alternatives landscape from the perspective of the individual investor. Historically, these asset classes have been the domain of institutional capital, but the structure of alternative investment vehicles is evolving in ways that make them more accessible. Not only do individual investors have more access to alternatives, they also may have a greater need as the traditional 60/40 portfolio faces challenges like elevated valuations, positive stock-bond correlation and a negative real yield. Additionally, as more companies are choosing to stay private for longer, alternatives allocations are becoming increasingly necessary to access these high-growth areas of the market.

Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist is joined by Kristin Kallergis, the Global Head of Alternatives for the J.P. Morgan Private Bank, to discuss all of these themes. Kristin’s team manages $180BN of private wealth across a wide array of alternatives solutions, giving her unique insight into the evolution of this market.

Timestamps: Introduction (00:00), Individuals vs. Institutions investing in alternatives (1:15), Liquidity needs within alternatives for individual investors (3:10), Selecting the right manager for alternatives (4:59), Popular asset classes within alternatives for individual investors (6:21), Niche asset classes (8:02), Private equity cash flow (10:12), Alternatives and secular themes (13:06)

Resources:

For more resources on the Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing

Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

Federal government regulatory policies have the potential to reshape both the economic landscape and the investment opportunity set and both candidates for president have expressed strong opinions on regulatory issues.  However, their attitudes on regulatory oversight appear to vary across industries and issues affecting the economy and society.  In addition, their power to implement regulatory change is limited both by political realities and the courts.  For investors, it is important to remember that it is policy, not politics, that matters most for markets and the economy. However, history suggests that regulatory policy may not always impact markets in the ways we’d expect.

To dive deeper into proposed regulatory policies and their potential impacts, Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, is joined by Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Resources:

For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify