Intelligence Matters

This week on Intelligence Matters, Michael Morell speaks with former senior CIA officer and Moscow station chief Rolf Mowatt-Larssen about his strategic analysis of the Russia-Ukraine war. He maps out the Russian objectives in the war and the lack of clear Western goals as the war continues. Mowatt-Larssen predicts that Putin will launch an offensive in 2023 but not until he has mobilized a sufficient number of troops, something he failed to do in the past year. Mowatt-Larssen discusses Putin's "scorched earth" approach and how it has led to the weaponization of energy. 

This week on Intelligence Matters, Michael Morell offers an in-depth analysis of the top national security challenges facing the world in 2023. Morell describes how the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war is in the hands of West and that without Western assistance, Russia could win the war. Morell defines the U.S. China relationship as a "cold war," but despite that tension Morell does not predict that China will invade Taiwan in 2023. Where Morell foresees the greatest probability of war in 2023 is between Iran and Israel as a hardline Israeli government takes the helm.

This week on Intelligence Matters, Michael Morell speaks with Wall Street Journal reporters Liza Lin and Josh Chin about their new book Surveillance State: Inside China's Quest to Launch a New Era of Social Control. Their new reporting examines how China's data collection goes beyond that of other countries as China seeks to create a model to export as an alternative to democratic governance. Lin and Chin detail Silicon Valley's involvement in the buildup of China's surveillance state and how the technology is used to surveil Uyghurs in Xinjiang. 

In this Best of episode of Intelligence Matters, host Michael Morell spoke with Hal Brands, Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and author of the new book, Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, about China's economic, political and demographic trajectory and the percolating risk of conflict with Beijing in the coming years. Brands explains why he believes China, rather than being on the rise, is peaking as a global power and as a result may engage in more destabilizing behavior. Brands and Morell explore how certain external tailwinds - which once propelled China's rise - have become headwinds, and may be driving President Xi Jinping's tightening grip on political power. They also discuss the effect of Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taipei, different scenarios and timelines for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, as well as how the conflict in Ukraine may - or may not - affect Xi's calculus. This episode was originally released in August 2022.

In this "Best Of" episode of Intelligence Matters, host Michael Morell speaks with Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development Elbridge Colby about his new book The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict and whether the U.S. military is ready for a new era of great power competition. Colby discusses doubts amongst analysts in the U.S. ability to win a war against the Chinese military. He notes that there is substantial bipartisan agreement that China is the biggest threat against the U.S. This episode was originally released in September 2022.

This week on Intelligence Matters, Michael Morell speaks with former CIA Chief Operating Officer Andrew Makridis on his 37-year career at the CIA. Makridis reflects on his front row seat to history as a Presidential briefer to President George H.W. Bush. He provides his analysis on how the CIA has changed and improved since the Iraq WMD intelligence failure and Wikileaks breach. 

This week on Intelligence Matters, Michael Morell speaks with Andrew Weiss, former White House Russia Expert and vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about his new book Accidental Czar: The Life and Lies of Vladimir Putin. Weiss discusses what motivates Putin and what misconceptions the U.S. has about his strategy in Ukraine. 

This week on Intelligence Matters, Michael Morell speaks with John Sipher and Jerry O'Shea, former CIA officers and co-founders of Spycraft Entertainment, about what Hollywood gets right and wrong about its depictions of the CIA. Sipher and O'Shea review movies, TV series, and books on how realistic their portrayals are of life in the agency. 

This week on Intelligence Matters, Michael Morell, in partnership with the Michael V. Hayden Center for Intelligence, Policy, and International Security, speaks with Dave Marlowe, CIA Director of Operations, and Linda Weissgold, CIA Director of Analysis about their careers at CIA and global hotspots. Marlowe and Weissgold discuss what skills and attributes CIA looks for when hiring officers while sharing their own career trajectories at CIA. They examine key issues for the agency including Ukraine, Iran, and China.

This week on Intelligence Matters, Michael Morell speaks with Professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and national security analyst Graham Allison as he re-examines his interviews on China with Former Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew. Allison inspects how their analysis and predictions on China hold up ten years later. Allison discusses Xi's plan for China, the negative consequences of bellicose rhetoric, and how Taiwan could potentially trigger a war between the U.S. and China.