Brent crude has slipped below $83 a barrel after Donald Trump announced another ceasefire, echoing last week’s brief market relief before fighting resumed. This episode examines the binary outlook for oil: progress in talks or renewed hostilities.

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Brent topped $100/b last week, driven by escalating US-Iran tensions and Houthi attacks threatening Saudi crude exports through the Red Sea. Prices have since retreated to around $90/b after the US paused action and Iran-Oman talks showed tentative progress.

Please note: this podcast is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell financial instruments. This podcast does not constitute a personal recommendation and is not investment advice. Investec

Brent crude has risen above $90 a barrel as escalating US-Iran tensions revive fears of prolonged energy disruption. Attacks on military, energy and water infrastructure, alongside the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed oil, diesel, jet fuel and gas prices higher.

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Brent traded near $70/b last week, reflecting confidence that oil will keep moving out of the Persian Gulf despite continuing risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Some operators are using shuttle runs to maintain crude flows.

Please note: this podcast is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell financial instruments. This podcast does not constitute a personal recommendation and is not investment advice. Investec

Oil markets enter the week looking calm despite renewed US-Iran tensions. Brent fell near $71 a barrel last Friday as hopes of normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz improved, before a drone strike on a container ship.

Please note: this podcast is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell financial instruments. This podcast does not constitute a personal recommendation and is not investment advice. Investec

Brent fell below $76/b last week after the U.S. and Iran reached an initial agreement, easing some of the war-related risk premium. However, uncertainty remains over the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict in Lebanon, and whether energy flows can return to normal, leaving markets caught between short-term supply risks and a longer-term oversupply outlook.

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Oil markets eased sharply after the US and Iran agreed the outline of an interim deal, although the agreement has not yet been formally signed and key details remain unpublished. President Trump announced the removal of the US naval blockade and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Pakistan confirmed a ceasefire between the parties.

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Brent crude briefly approached $98/bbl after renewed military exchanges between Iran and Israel heightened concerns over Middle East supply risks. Iran launched rockets following Israeli strikes in Beirut, while Israel subsequently targeted Iranian military sites despite reported US efforts to restrain escalation.

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Brent crude has recovered to around $93.50/bbl after falling below $90 last week on optimism that a US-Iran ceasefire agreement could ease tensions in the Gulf. However, reports of further negotiations, renewed military action around the Strait of Hormuz, and concerns over mine clearance have tempered expectations of a swift resolution.

Please note: this podcast is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell financial instruments. This podcast does not constitute a personal recommendation and is not investment advice. Investec

Brent crude fell sharply this week after reports suggested the US and Iran are close to agreeing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and potentially ease sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Prices dropped from around $105/bbl to $96/bbl before recovering towards $98/bbl following limited US and Israeli strikes near the Strait.

Please note: this podcast is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell financial instruments. This podcast does not constitute a personal recommendation and is not investment advice. Investec