Over a year and a half after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and with both sides incurring significant losses, is the conflict coming to a standstill?

In February 2022, Moscow aimed to seize Ukraine quickly. But 20 months later, the war grinds on inconclusively, with untold human suffering.

Both sides are looking to restock, rearm and mobilise new troops. Ukraine is now coming up against serious constraints on what more can be provided from Western stocks, and there is growing political unease in Europe and the US about the implications of a long-term commitment to Kyiv.

Is the conflict heading for deadlock, and if so, what are the implications for the region? What is the risk of a protracted war? And how can Russia best be managed and deterred in the medium and long term?

Host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Mark Galeotti, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI and Principal Executive Director of Mayak Intelligence, as well as Honorary Professor at University College London’s School of Slavonic and East European Studies, to discuss some of these questions.