ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Locar breaks down January’s hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index report and what it means for interest rates as we head into March. With inflation data coming in warm and money supply growth accelerating at the fastest pace in nearly four years, the likelihood of a near-term rate cut appears to be fading.

At the same time, bond yields are dipping below 4 percent, raising new questions about growth expectations and market sentiment. Add in the latest 10 percent tariff action under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, and businesses are once again facing pricing uncertainty.

If you are trying to plan capital spending, manage borrowing costs, or protect margins in an environment of persistent inflation pressure, this episode will help you frame what matters most right now. Are markets signaling confidence, or concern?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the latest labor market data and what it means for your workforce strategy in 2026. While employment growth is slowing, wage inflation remains elevated above historical norms, creating ongoing margin pressure for businesses.

We examine industry specific wage trends, regional disparities, and why a role by role and state by state approach is critical in today’s environment. As the economy positions for growth in 2026 and 2027, is now the time to act on hiring and compensation strategy?

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a major Supreme Court decision striking down the administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, and what that means for inflation, business costs, and economic uncertainty ahead.

With fourth quarter GDP coming in at 1.4% and core PCE inflation rising to 3%, headlines are painting a mixed picture. Is growth really faltering? Are inflation pressures reaccelerating? And how should business leaders interpret the latest data amid shifting trade policy?

Lauren unpacks what is signal versus noise, why government shutdown effects matter, and why inflation may not fade as quickly as some hope. Most importantly, she explains why the tariff ruling does not automatically mean lower prices for businesses and consumers.

If you are navigating margin pressure, pricing strategy decisions, or concerns about profitless prosperity, this episode offers critical context.

What does this ruling really mean for your cost structure in 2026?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the downgrade to the 2026 US Single-Unit Housing Starts forecast. Despite lower mortgage rates and moderating home prices, affordability challenges remain a major headwind for builders, buyers, and industry suppliers.

Why are most states still facing income deficits when it comes to buying a home? When will meaningful recovery begin? And which regions are positioned to outperform even in a down cycle?

Tune in for the data-driven outlook and strategic insights to help you plan for 2026 and beyond. How is your region preparing for continued housing market pressure?

Stronger Jobs Report, Fed Pause Likely, and Global Concerns Rise | Fed Watch by ITR Economics

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the key economic benchmarks shaping business conditions in 2026. Industrial production, employment, capital investment, and consumer spending are all showing improvement, but growth comes with new challenges. As demand returns and competition for labor intensifies, businesses must stay disciplined on margins to win in this cycle. Are you prepared for what the second half of 2026 may bring?

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar steps in to unpack how markets are responding to the Fed Chair announcement and what the latest data means for rates, inflation, and demand. With bond yields holding steady and PMI surging to a multi-year high, a key business pain point remains front and center: meaningful rate relief still looks elusive. Connor explains why stable yields do not signal coming cuts, how rising new orders point to renewed demand pressure, and why the housing market faces a longer recovery timeline than many expect.

What do these signals mean for your planning as we move deeper into 2026?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the European economic outlook for 2026, highlighting where growth is returning and where businesses still face pressure. Western Europe is moving through recovery, Eastern Europe is poised to outperform, and business confidence is finally improving across most markets. But inflation dynamics and margin management remain key challenges leaders cannot ignore. What does this mean for companies planning international growth in the year ahead?

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a busy week for the Federal Reserve, from the FOMC’s decision to hold interest rates to the surprise announcement of Kevin Warsh as President Trump’s pick for Fed Chair. With markets already uneasy about inflation and the timing of the next rate move, leadership changes at the Fed raise important questions for businesses planning around borrowing costs, capital investment, and economic uncertainty. Get insight into what Warsh’s policy stance could signal for rate cuts, Fed credibility, and the path forward. What should decision-makers be watching most closely right now?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the latest automotive industry outlook, including why North American light vehicle production is expected to return to growth in 2026 after a difficult 2025. While production and retail sales show improvement, cost pressures and rising auto loan delinquencies present real challenges for industry leaders. How should automotive firms prepare for a slower, more disciplined growth cycle ahead?