ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker examines how rising oil prices are complicating the Federal Reserve’s next move and what it means for businesses trying to plan in an uncertain environment.

As energy costs climb, companies face margin pressure while consumers feel the strain at the pump. But does this inflationary shock justify higher interest rates, or could it slow growth enough to force rate cuts?

Lauren also breaks down the latest retail sales data, revealing why strong headlines may be masking underlying weakness in consumer demand and what that signals for the months ahead.

If you are navigating pricing pressure, demand uncertainty, or planning for the second half of 2026, this episode highlights the key signals you need to watch.

Will rising costs force a shift in Fed policy, or will the economy absorb the shock?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the surge in AI investment, now exceeding $560 billion, and what it really means for businesses navigating rising labor costs and workforce shortages. While some industries are rapidly adopting AI, others are falling behind. What does this gap mean for your strategy?

Discover where AI is gaining traction, why smaller firms are lagging, and why AI may not be the solution many expect for labor challenges in key sectors.

Check out Brian and Connor's webinar presentation → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/profitless-prosperity

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Brian Beaulieu examines why rising producer prices and ongoing global uncertainty may keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in 2026.

With inflation pressures tied to oil and commodities still building, many businesses are struggling to separate headlines from reality. Brian breaks down what the data actually shows, why the Fed may stay cautious, and how shifting expectations could impact your planning strategy.

He also shares insight into bond market stress, employment trends, and what companies should be doing now to protect margins before inflation accelerates again.

If you are trying to make informed decisions in an uncertain environment, this episode will help you focus on what truly matters and avoid reacting to misleading signals.

Are you planning based on headlines, or on the data that actually drives your business?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain breaks down encouraging signs in manufacturing and capital expenditure growth, offering a much-needed positive outlook after a prolonged downturn. But with economic uncertainty beginning to rise again, how confident should businesses be in their 2026 plans?

Learn what the latest data is signaling, where growth is coming from, and what risks could impact your strategy moving forward.

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down why the Fed held rates steady and what shifting market expectations signal for the year ahead.

With rate cuts now pushed further into the future, many business leaders are asking: are we prepared for higher-for-longer interest rates? Lauren explores the growing possibility that the Fed’s next move may not be a cut at all.

She also unpacks rising oil prices, inflation risks, and why today’s energy costs may not hit the economy as hard as in the past. Plus, insight into internal Fed debates and what leadership uncertainty could mean for policy direction.

Are markets underestimating the risk of sustained or even rising rates?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the recent surge in oil prices following escalating tensions in the Middle East and what it means for businesses and consumers. With oil briefly pushing above $100 per barrel, many leaders are asking whether this spike signals sustained inflation and economic pressure.

Taylor shares ITR Economics’ updated oil price forecast and explains why history suggests these price spikes may not last as long as headlines imply. He also explores how higher energy prices could affect consumer spending, retail sales, and business margins in the months ahead.

Join ITR Economics Chief Economist Brian Beaulieu and Senior Forecaster Connor Lokar in our Executive Webinar on March 20 → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/profitless-prosperity

Want to Learn about having "you're own" ITR Economist on your team?→ https://promotions.itreconomics.com/en-us/insights-from-itr-economics

Don't miss our Executive Webinar on March 20th→ https://itrondemand.com/store/product/profitless-prosperity

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest inflation data and what it means for the Federal Reserve’s next move. With CPI and Core CPI still running above the Fed’s target, inflation remains stubbornly persistent, raising new questions for businesses and consumers alike.

Lauren also examines how rising geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions in global oil supply could influence energy prices and consumer budgets. While the impact may be temporary, the combination of higher energy costs and growing electricity demand from AI and data centers could complicate the Fed’s path toward rate cuts.

What does this mean for inflation trends, business planning, and the likelihood of interest rate relief this year?

Watch the full episode to understand the forces shaping the economic outlook and what to watch next.

00:02 – Inflation remains sticky: CPI and Core CPI update

00:42 – Middle East tensions and risks to global oil supply

02:12 – How higher energy prices impact consumers

03:25 – Why energy costs matter less than they used to

04:05 – AI, data centers, and rising electricity demand

04:45 – What sticky inflation means for Fed rate cuts

05:30 – Other economic data: GDP, housing, and labor market

💬 Do you think the Fed will still be able to cut rates this year if inflation remains sticky?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain shares an update on the commercial construction outlook and why the industry may have already passed its cyclical low. While the data still shows contraction, key leading indicators suggest momentum is building for growth later this year. What signals should contractors and construction suppliers be watching right now?

Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker unpacks February’s surprising jobs report and explains why one weak headline number doesn’t necessarily signal trouble for the economy. With job losses making headlines and uncertainty lingering, many leaders are asking the same question: Is the labor market starting to crack?

Lauren breaks down what’s really behind the data, from temporary healthcare job losses to ongoing labor shortages in key industries like manufacturing and construction. She also explores why wages are still rising and what that means for inflation, interest rates, and the Federal Reserve’s next move.

For business leaders navigating slower growth and persistent inflation, the bigger risk may be something ITR calls “profitless prosperity.” What does that mean for your strategy in 2026?

Are you making decisions based on headlines, or on what the data is actually telling us?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain examines the rapid growth in electricity infrastructure and what it means for your business strategy through 2030. With data center construction in 2025 and record highs in electric power transmission and distribution production, demand for energy is reshaping industrial markets.

Rising electricity costs are adding pressure to margins and contributing to inflation in the second half of the decade. How should you position your business to capitalize on electrification growth while protecting profitability? Tune in for the data, the risks, and the long term opportunity.