Big day in gold today; gold broke over $1200 for the first time in almost over a year, in fact we hit a new 1-year high
I saw gold trading above 1260 at one point in the morning, that was up better than $60 on the ounce; It closed up 49.10, I believe at $124.90
Remember, I was on CNBC "Futures Now" earlier in the week and gold was around $1180-$1190 and they were trying to press me on where I thought it would go, and I said, it's going to go higher, I'm bullish in the short term, the medium and the long term
But I'll tell you one thing: when gold brakes through $1200, it's going to move to $1300 very quickly and people are going to be surprised
It's just been one day and we're halfway there
Gold stocks still reflect a lot of skepticism on this rally; Gold stocks were up about 7% on the day
Gold stocks have a long way to go to catch up
I mentioned on the last podcast, Dennis Gartman, who got bullish on gold, told people not to buy, he said wait for a pull back
Well the people who are waiting f or a pull back are still waiting and they missed this entire $50 move
The stock market was the mirror image of the gold market today; at one point, with less than an hour to go, the Dow was down 400 points again, the NASDAQ was maybe down about 60
Then all of a sudden there was a rumor floated that the United Arab Emirates was considering meeting with other OPEC nations about a production cut and all of a sudden the market rallied
The NASDAQ actually rallied positive; the Dow got to about -170 and then they rolled over on the close, Dow down 254, NASDAQ down 16.76 - horrible close
Of course the weakest stocks on the day continue to be the financials getting decimated to new lows
Goldman Sachs down about 4.5%, Morgan Stanley down 4.5%, Bank of America down 6.8% - many of these companies making new 52-week lows
But outside the financials, the debacle du jour, in the stock market is Boeing, which is a Dow component, was down 7% on the day, near a 3-year low; the lowest I saw inter-day was -12%
The news is that the SEC will investigate their accounting practices - that can't be good
Also they reported that they are going to be laying off workers in an effort to contain their costs
It's not just about bad oil loans, that's part of the story, that's just the tip of a huge iceberg
In fact, the market rallied because of the rumor of OPEC is making moves to support oil prices
We hear people saying that what the stock market needs is higher oil prices. No we don't!
Higher oil prices will help oil stocks, but they're not going to help the overall market market because some guy writes an algorithm that runs a program that says, "Buy stocks when oil goes up"
Steve Liesman said on CNBC recently that he never would have believed the market would be so dependent on oil prices
A lot of people make that mistake, assuming that oil is driving the stock market but the same factors are dominating both: fear of higher interest rates and weakness in the U.S. economy
But eventually, I think oil prices will go up, and the stock market will continue to go down
Many people are hopeful that Janet Yellen's second trip to Capitol Hill, this time talking to the Senate, might save the market; apparently that was not the case
Janet Yellen, this time, in the Q&A was closer to admitting that negative rates are coming
She actually said they would consider doing it if the economy needed it
All the discussion is going straight to negative rates and skipping over zero interest rates and QE
There was no discussion about reversing December's .25 rate hike
If Janet Yellen is thinking about negative rates, she has ready considered zero rates and QE
She obviously can't be as confident in the economy as she appears to be
Some people are asking "Is this an over-reaction to global market troubles and oil prices?"
No one considers that the U.S. Stock market is going down because there's a problem with the U.S.