In this week's podcast, Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, comments on how markets have endured a great deal of uncertainty around the Middle East conflict without becoming overly reactive. “I think the really good news is that the markets have reacted in a very rational way,” he says, noting that interest-rate expectations are still shifting as a result. “Even if we see the Strait of Hormuz opening up, we expect the ECB will probably still hike rates on June 11."

The rate outlook is closely tied to inflation forecasts, for both central banks and consumers, he continues. “If you see higher prices at a fuel station or in a supermarket, then your inflation expectations go higher. And that's literally happening immediately." However, he adds, this has not yet fed into a long-term negative outlook.

In the week ahead, the US Jobs Report is likely to be of particular importance, as markets could be sensitive to evidence that the economy is running either too hot or too cold. “I think a boring number would be best from a market perspective,” Christian says, as it would sidestep both increased inflation risks and evidence of an economic downturn.

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