The Private Bank’s Chief Investment Office just held its quarterly “CIO Day” gathering to set its 12-month forecasts, and it included some interesting shifts to its outlook, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “The key takeaway is that the worst of the trade war is behind us as we enter 2026,” Deepak says, adding that recent market volatility has not changed its views on AI: “We still believe the AI dominance will continue and have a very positive tailwind from the earnings side for 2026. So we upgraded our S&P target.”

Central banks were naturally part of the discussion, and Deepak pointed to sharp divisions at the Federal Reserve over the course of monetary policy in the coming months. “We now expect three rate cuts from now till the year end of 2026,” Deepak said, while the European Central Bank is not expected to cut at all, and the Bank of Japan is forecast to raise rates twice.

For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.com.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.

The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2025 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Scepticism in the market can be a healthy sign, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer – and that’s currently in evidence in the mood around lofty tech valuations. “There's a bit of discussion in the market about AI. Is it a bubble or not?”, Christian said. “And from that perspective, I think it's quite healthy if we also see the market not always going up in a straight line.”

And importantly, analysts will soon have access to data that was unavailable to markets during the US government shutdown. US labour market data and inflation figures will be of particular interest, Christian said, as they will have clear implications for Federal Reserve policy in the months ahead.

For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.com.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.

The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2025 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

For a while it seemed like all the earnings growth was coming from a short list of major tech firms, but now that has begun to change, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. "The lead in terms of earnings growth by these mega caps is actually narrowing somewhat ", Dirk says. “This is a positive and healthy sign for the stock market in our view.”

But that is not a reason to be excessively exuberant, Dirk says. “It's important not to get carried away by these very solid numbers,” though he acknowledges that results so far have been “a huge win for corporate America.” And while the reporting season continues, Dirk says he’ll be paying attention to results from some European firms this week for further clues about how they are coping with tariffs and shifting trading patterns.

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.

The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2025 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Stock markets are soaring amid AI enthusiasm, but that does not necessarily mean we are in bubble territory, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank’s head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “The difference now is the foundation. Equities are showing strong earnings, robust cash flows and disciplined balance sheets. That's not typical bubble behaviour,” Markus says, though he also points to the need for careful risk management. “Overinvestment is a risk. Global data centre spending surged.”

This tension is on display in the current U.S. earnings season, Markus says. “Fundamentals are strong, but the pace of investment and market concentration require respect. The top 10 US companies now represent over 20% of the global equity market value. And tech alone is about 35% of US market cap. With that concentration, risk management is essential.”

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.

The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2025 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

In a central bank triple-header, we’ll see announcements from the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan in the week ahead. And while the banks share similar aims, Markus Müller, Chief Investment Officer Sustainability & Global Head of the Chief Investment Office for Deutsche Bank’s Private Bank, describes the different situations facing central bankers as being like "three captains steering ships through different waters – some choppy, some calm, some foggy”.

Switching to sustainability and COP30 in Belem, Brazil, next month, Markus expects a more reflective mood at what is being called the 'nature COP'. Fragile global economic alliances and the lack of strong US commitment will likely limit practical outcomes, he says. "It’s a chance to reframe the narrative, but not necessarily to rewrite the results."

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.

The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2025 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

US earnings season got started with some strong results from big banks, but markets have also been focused on emerging risks for some regional banks, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “There have been two big delinquencies in recent days in the US”, Deepak says, noting that they “have had some exposure to the regional banking sector.”

Bond markets meanwhile have been coming under some stress in the high-yield space, Deepak says. “The default rate is really important to see, especially for those companies that are really on the fringe of what I would call junk.” And on the data front, Deepak says markets will be watching for US inflation figures that are expected at the end of the week.

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.

The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2025 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Just as people should get routine screenings from their doctors, the upcoming earnings season will provide a valuable “health check for the market,” says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. Analysts have recently cut their earnings forecasts, and Christian says markets aren’t necessarily expecting particularly strong results – but that means “the companies really do need to deliver.”

And even with gold trading near historic highs, Christian says that any dips in the price might be regarded as buying opportunities. “Although the dollar has been strengthening recently, we still see investors including central banks buying gold, just to diversify. And we think this trend will continue.”

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.

The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2025 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

The US government shutdown meant that the usual monthly Jobs Report did not arrive, but markets took it in stride, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “Government shutdowns are usually considered non-events for financial markets, primarily because they tend not to change the underlying macro backdrop,” Deepak says. “We would caution investors not to make dramatic moves within their long-term portfolios based on what's happening day-to-day in D.C.”

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting are due, and “the focus is really going to be what was the debate like”, Deepak says. “As I look today, there's almost a 100% chance of another 25-basis-point rate cut in the October 29th meeting, and then another 25-basis-point rate cut in the December meeting.”

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.

The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2025 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

US legislators are nearing a deadline on a budget agreement, and a government shutdown is possible this week, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. But he also says that any negative movements in markets would likely be both minor and temporary, should that come to pass. "That would rather be a buying opportunity in the market," Christian said.

Meanwhile, recent inflation data in the US showed that price rises remain above the Federal Reserve’s target. “It just confirms our view: Inflation stays higher for quite some time,” Christian said. “It limits a bit the ability for the Fed to massively cut [interest rates]. Although if you look at the labour market, I think there is room for the Fed to further cut.”

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.

The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2025 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates last week was really “a risk management tool” in the face of softer economic data, including a weaker job market, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “But it was not all about the Fed last week”, Deepak says, pointing to policy decisions in the U.K., Japan, and Canada. “A lot to digest from the global central banks last week.”

Looking ahead, a shutdown of the US government remains a possibility, while lawmakers remain divided on a budget that could pass a Senate filibuster. But Deepak says that markets may not react strongly even if that happens. “The interesting thing is that the markets tend to look beyond the shutdown”, Deepak says, noting that one occurred during the first Trump administration without rattling stocks. “Even though it took a lot of space in regard to the news, the markets actually had a pretty impressive rally.”

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.

The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2025 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121