Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe is a Coward, Rain in Northern Illinois


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0:00 Non-Drought and Illinois Rain
6:36 USDA Preview
14:50 Export Sales
17:42 CONAB
20:21 USDA Secretary Mackenzie
24:07 Flash Sale

🌾 USDA Report Today
USDA will release its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report at 11:00am CST.
📉 July rarely brings yield changes, so traders will focus on demand.
Corn export pace could lead to higher old-crop exports—but lower feed demand might offset it.
🌍 Global balance sheet adjustments also likely. 

🌧️ Drought Monitor Update
Rain helped drought in western Missouri, southwest Iowa & northern Minnesota.
🌾 But conditions worsened in central/northern Illinois & Michigan.
⚠️ New drought concerns in western Ohio, southern Indiana & northern Kentucky.
High Plains: Nebraska improved, but drought deepened in northeast North Dakota, central South Dakota, & western Kansas. US areas in drought:
🌽 Corn 12% | 🌱 Soybeans 9% | 🌾 Winter Wheat 26% | 🌱 Spring Wheat 35% | 🐄 Cattle 16%  

📈 Export Sales Strong
Corn sales surged to 1.3mmt (50mil bu), 70% above the 4-week average—Mexico led buying.
Soybeans at 503,000mt (18mil bu), up 9% w/w; unknown destinations were top buyers.
Wheat at 567,800mt (21mil bu), slightly down w/w but 37% above the 4-week average; South Korea led demand.

🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Crop Record
Conab forecasts corn at 132mmt—up 2.9% from last month & 14.3% higher than last season.
🌽 Boost driven by a strong second crop (+16%).
Corn exports raised to 36mmt (+6%).
Slight cut to soybean forecast: now 169.5mmt, still up 14.7% vs last season.  

🐄 Feeder Cattle Imports Halted
USDA suspended Mexican feeder cattle imports after a new screwworm case, just 370 miles south of the border.
🇲🇽 Mexican President Sheinbaum called it an overreaction.
Imports had resumed only Monday at an Arizona port after a May closure.
YTD imports through April were 193,000 head, down ~60% from last year.  

🚢 Flash Corn Sale
US exporters sold 110,000mt of corn to unknown destinations for 2025/26.
🌽 New crop corn sales are off to a strong start—the third best since 2020/21.

...more
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Grain Markets and Other StuffBy Joe Vaclavik

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