WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

JSE delisting; can we spot them in advance and profit? (#597)


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Jerome Powell's Statement:

  • Rates left unchanged in the US.
  • Possible rate cuts on the table for September.
  • US MPC meeting on 19 September.
  • Data needed: improving inflation and higher unemployment.
Oil and Gold Market Update:
  • Brent Crude:
    • Under pressure, signaling weak global demand.
    • Lower highs trend since June 2022.
    • Support at $72.50 and resistance around $88.
  • Brent Oil | 01 August 2024
  •  Gold:
    • Trading near all-time highs.
    • Strong central bank buying.
    • Uncertain targets, but bullish sentiment persists.

Gold | 01 August 2024

Potential JSE Delistings:
  • Criteria: Dividend yield > 0, market cap < 5 billion ZAR, NAV price > 100, P/E < 10, and profitable.
  • Initial search yielded 53 stocks, refined criteria (dividend yield > 5%) narrowed it down to 25.
  • Top candidates: African Media Entertainment, Argent, Combined Motor Holdings*, eMedia, Frontier Transport, Home Choice, Mustek, PrimeServe, Transpaco.
Shoprite*:
  • Trading at all-time highs.
  • 12% revenue increase, 6.3% like-for-like growth, 5.8% inflation.
  • Successful new store formats (PetScience, Checkers Outdoor, UNIQ Clothing, Little Me).
Woolies:
  • Disappointing trading statement.
  • Comparable store sales up 6.9%, inflation at 7%, volume decline.
  • Heps down 14-19%, market expectation miss.
RSA Retail Bonds Update:
  • New Rates: Two-year at 8.75%, three-year at 9%, five-year at 10.25%.
  • Rates have been declining since June.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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