Our latest analysis projects Kamala Harris as the probable winner of the 2024 election, with a likely path to 292 electoral votes. Election expert Carl Allen's independent forecast supports this projection, rating Harris as the more likely winner. His models even show a possible more decisive outcome, in which Democrats could sweep all swing states.

Probable Path to Victory:

The most likely scenario shows Harris securing traditional blue-wall states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) while adding North Carolina, creating multiple viable paths to victory even if she loses one blue-wall state. This probable path puts Harris at 292 electoral votes compared to Trums’s forecast, showing potential for an even stronger Democratic performance.

Michigan

Michigan appears the most volatile of the blue wall states, with both campaigns wrestling over significant voter shifts. Despite Republicans registering more new voters than expected and potential losses of 50,000-150,000 traditionally Democratic voters over Gaza, Allen's polling average still shows Harris maintaining a likely lead at 48.5% to Trump's 48%. The GOP's strategic pivot to early voting could prove decisive. While they celebrate narrower Democratic early voting margins, Allen warns they may be "cannibalizing" their crucial Election Day turnout

Wisconsin. In Allen's analysis, Wisconsin emerges as the most vulnerable blue-wall state, with a lower concentration of urban Democratic voters than Pennsylvania and Michigan. While Harris currently leads in Wisconsin, Allen rates it as the most likely blue-wall state to flip red—a scenario that would cost Democrats 10 electoral votes but likely wouldn't be fatal to Harris's chances if she secures other swing states.

North Carolina

North Carolina has become the Democrats' probable safety net, consistently showing Harris at 49% to Trump's 47% across multiple polls. The state's shifting media landscape and the toxic effect of Republican gubernatorial candidate Robinson's scandals have created likely Democratic strength. Trump's hasty addition of an unplanned North Carolina rally signals Republican anxiety about a state that could provide Harris with probable electoral insurance if any blue wall state falters.

Likely GOP Vulnerability

Republicans' strategic shift to early voting will probably backfire by reducing their traditional Election Day advantage. With 19 million votes already cast and Democrats building strong early voting margins, the GOP faces a changed electoral landscape that likely complicates their path to victory. Despite prediction markets favoring Trump, Allen sees no data supporting him as even a probable favorite, suggesting market manipulation may be at play.