Narativ with Zev Shalev (Video)

What began as a day marked by Russian interference - from FBI warnings about Russian-originated bomb threats at polling stations to debunked deep-fake videos - ended with an electoral outcome that seemed to follow a Russian-crafted narrative.

Our show began confidently at 9:30 PM ET, with Dean Blundell and Spencer “Spenny” Rice joining me to witness what we expected to be a historic victory for Kamala Harris. The mood was light, even celebratory. "Dancing in the streets by 11:30," we predicted.

But as the night progressed, the numbers shifted dramatically. One by one, the critical swing states fell: Michigan (+90,820 for Trump), Wisconsin (a razor-thin +29,797), Pennsylvania (+153,204), and Georgia (+117,384).

By the time foreign policy expert Rick Petrie joined our panel, what had started as a celebration had transformed into growing concern about the integrity of what we were witnessing. 

By morning, what seemed impossible at 9:30 PM had become reality - Donald Trump had secured victory in nearly every battleground state, with margins that defied both polling and campaign internal numbers.

This week, Elon Musk confirmed his support for implementing $2 trillion in federal budget cuts, which he describes as necessary "shock therapy" for the U.S. economy. Musk laid out his vision at Donald Trump's Madison Square Garden rally, stating, "Your money is being wasted. We'll get the government off your back and out of your pocketbook".

When asked directly about the economic impact of these cuts, Musk responded, "Sounds about right," to the prediction of severe market disruption and economic contraction. The proposed $2 trillion reduction represents nearly one-third of the current $6.13 trillion federal budget.

Trump has indicated that he would appoint Musk to lead the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to implement these cuts. The Wall Street Journal reported that throughout this period, Musk maintained regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his first deputy, Sergei Kerienko, since late 2022.

The economic model for these cuts appears to mirror the "shock therapy" policies implemented in Argentina under Javier Milei, which has led to:

- Inflation at 230%

- Unemployment rising from 12% to 18%

- Poverty increasing from 42% to 53%

Musk has become Trump's most prominent financial backer through his America PAC, contributing $118 million of his own money. This level of financial support, combined with his proposed role overseeing budget cuts, would give him unprecedented influence over both fiscal policy and public discourse through his ownership of X/Twitter.

The proposed cuts would require significant reductions to core government services, including Medicare and Social Security, and eliminating multiple federal agencies. While critics argue this would cause severe economic disruption, Musk maintains these measures are necessary for long-term prosperity.

Dean Blundell joins Zev Shalev for the third installment of Narativ Canada. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has a list of members of Parliament who are either actively engaged with or at high risk of foreign interference, putting Parliament Hill in crisis. The bombshell disclosure came at Canada's Foreign Interference Inquiry, during which Trudeau expressed frustration at Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre's continued refusal to receive top-secret security briefings about the threat.

I have the names of a number of parliamentarians, former parliamentarians, and/or candidates in the Conservative Party of Canada, who are engaged or at high risk of, or for whom there is clear intelligence around foreign interference," 

PM Justin Trudeau under oath.

The Prime Minister emphasized that his government has directed CSIS to inform the Conservative Party leader about these security risks, but Poilievre's refusal to receive classified briefings means "nobody in his party, nobody in a position of power knows the names of these individuals and can take appropriate action."

The revelations come amid mounting evidence of Indian government interference in Canadian politics. The RCMP has uncovered evidence linking Indian government agents to a campaign of violence, including homicides, coercion, and extortion on Canadian soil.

In a dramatic development, Trudeau confirmed he confronted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi about these allegations during what he described as a "very uncomfortable" conversation at the G20 summit. The Prime Minister disclosed that Indian diplomats and consular officials in Canada had allegedly leveraged their positions to engage in clandestine intelligence-gathering activities.

Adding to the growing scandal, recent reports indicate that Arpan Khanna, who served as Pierre Poilievre's Ontario co-chair during his successful leadership campaign, is under investigation by CSIS for potentially receiving support from the Indian government. 

Khanna's nomination in the Oxford riding has come under particular scrutiny. Two senior riding officials resigned in protest, claiming the party leadership "hijacked" the process to favor Khanna.

Dean Blundell, a legendary figure in Canadian broadcasting who hosted the boundary-pushing morning show on Toronto's 102.1 The Edge (2001-2014) and later Fan 590, has transformed from self-described "shock jock" to one of Canada's most important investigative voices through his Dean Blundell Show podcast and Crier Media empire. Under the Crier Media banner, which operates dozens of podcasts and works with a collective of reporters, journalists, and lawyers while maintaining complete independence by refusing government funding, Blundell has emerged as a leading investigator of foreign interference in Canadian politics, breaking significant stories about threats to democracy that mainstream media outlets often hesitate to cover, including early reporting on Pierre Poilievre's refusal to obtain national security clearance and exposing connections between Canadian conservative movements and international actors.

Our latest analysis projects Kamala Harris as the probable winner of the 2024 election, with a likely path to 292 electoral votes. Election expert Carl Allen's independent forecast supports this projection, rating Harris as the more likely winner. His models even show a possible more decisive outcome, in which Democrats could sweep all swing states.

Probable Path to Victory:

The most likely scenario shows Harris securing traditional blue-wall states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) while adding North Carolina, creating multiple viable paths to victory even if she loses one blue-wall state. This probable path puts Harris at 292 electoral votes compared to Trums’s forecast, showing potential for an even stronger Democratic performance.

Michigan

Michigan appears the most volatile of the blue wall states, with both campaigns wrestling over significant voter shifts. Despite Republicans registering more new voters than expected and potential losses of 50,000-150,000 traditionally Democratic voters over Gaza, Allen's polling average still shows Harris maintaining a likely lead at 48.5% to Trump's 48%. The GOP's strategic pivot to early voting could prove decisive. While they celebrate narrower Democratic early voting margins, Allen warns they may be "cannibalizing" their crucial Election Day turnout

Wisconsin. In Allen's analysis, Wisconsin emerges as the most vulnerable blue-wall state, with a lower concentration of urban Democratic voters than Pennsylvania and Michigan. While Harris currently leads in Wisconsin, Allen rates it as the most likely blue-wall state to flip red—a scenario that would cost Democrats 10 electoral votes but likely wouldn't be fatal to Harris's chances if she secures other swing states.

North Carolina

North Carolina has become the Democrats' probable safety net, consistently showing Harris at 49% to Trump's 47% across multiple polls. The state's shifting media landscape and the toxic effect of Republican gubernatorial candidate Robinson's scandals have created likely Democratic strength. Trump's hasty addition of an unplanned North Carolina rally signals Republican anxiety about a state that could provide Harris with probable electoral insurance if any blue wall state falters.

Likely GOP Vulnerability

Republicans' strategic shift to early voting will probably backfire by reducing their traditional Election Day advantage. With 19 million votes already cast and Democrats building strong early voting margins, the GOP faces a changed electoral landscape that likely complicates their path to victory. Despite prediction markets favoring Trump, Allen sees no data supporting him as even a probable favorite, suggesting market manipulation may be at play.

The secretive Catholic organization Opus Dei has emerged as a powerful force in American conservative politics, wielding outsized influence on key issues like abortion, the Supreme Court, and threats to democracy. In a revealing interview, investigative journalist Gareth Gore, author of the new book "Opus: The Cult of Dark Money, Human Trafficking, and Right-Wing Conspiracy inside the Catholic Church," exposes Opus Dei's hidden networks and agenda.

Key revelations:

Opus Dei operates as a shadowy intelligence network within the Catholic Church, gathering information on members and strategically placing allies in positions of power.

The group has deep ties to conservative politics in the U.S., with close connections to figures like Leonard Leo, Bill Barr, JD Vance and others shaping the Supreme Court and Republican policy.

Opus Dei recruits aggressively, often targeting minors as young as 12-13 years old using cult-like tactics.

A Spanish bank hijacked by Opus Dei funneled billions of dollars into the organization's global expansion, including major initiatives in Washington D.C.

The group is currently facing human trafficking charges in Argentina for exploiting young women as unpaid domestic servants.

Gore argues Opus Dei represents a serious threat to democracy, pushing an authoritarian agenda cloaked in religious language. As America approaches a pivotal election, understanding Opus Dei's influence and tactics is crucial for voters concerned about the future of democratic institutions.

This eye-opening conversation sheds light on one of the most secretive and influential organizations operating in American politics today. Gore's meticulously researched book "Opus" is essential reading for anyone seeking to understand the hidden forces shaping our political landscape.

The parallels between 2024 and 2016 are striking and impossible to ignore:

• Trump as the Candidate: Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, and that entails unprecedented support from Russia. 

I asked Carl Allen, author of "The Polls Weren't Wrong," how he viewed the two elections on last night’s show. Allen says his 2024 forecast is not as close as other analysts’, putting Kamala Harris in a far more advantageous polling position than Hillary Clinton was in 2016.

Here are some of the "green shoots" that Carl sees in the data.

1. Closer to 50%: Allen points out that Harris is polling closer to the crucial 50% mark in critical states, which he argues is more important than lead size.

Allen emphasizes that Harris's chances are better than a toss-up, albeit just barely. He puts her probability of winning at about 66%, adding, "A 34 or one in three chance that Trump wins doesn't let me sleep well at night." 

He also calls 2016 an outlier election that shouldn’t be viewed as very predictive. While this offers some cautious optimism, it reminds me that everything about this election, like 2016, is abnormal.

Trump's strategy in 2024, like 2016 “is asymmetrical. Instead of running an on-message campaign, he's running an absolute onslaught of disinformation."

His alliance with X’s Elon Musk is an unprecedented national security crisis connecting the GOP nominee to a known Russian disinformation agent who has the most prominent news app in the world at his disposal to spread disinformation. 

There are legitimate concerns about foreign actors like Bibi Netanyahu, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin attempting to sway the election by inventing or heightening international crises. 

The Specter of Violence: The implicit threat of violence if Trump doesn’t win echoes the 2020 election. 

The gravity of the disinformation threat was underscored today by President Biden himself. In response to false claims about hurricane relief efforts, Biden condemned what he called "a reckless, irresponsible, relentless promotion of disinformation and outright lies."

Biden explicitly named Trump, stating he "has led the onslaught of lies." echoing the "onslaught of disinformation" referred to in yesterday's show.

Carl Allen’s book “The Polls Weren’t Wrong” brings an exciting new perspective to our understanding of polls and helps us be more precise about forecasting results, especially during unprecedented unpredictability. 

What do you think about the parallels and differences between 2016 and 2024? Please reply in the comments below.

In this eye-opening episode, Zev Shalev exposes how Donald Trump's campaign is unleashing a familiar torrent of disinformation, eerily reminiscent of 2016. Shalev meticulously dissects the current state of the 2024 U.S. presidential race, revealing how Trump's strategy of flooding social media with falsehoods is once again tightening the polls in crucial swing states.

At the core of Shalev's analysis is Trump's unconventional campaign approach, which prioritizes a relentless stream of disinformation over traditional political messaging. The recent Butler, Pennsylvania rally serves as a stark example, with Shalev highlighting how Twitter, under Elon Musk's ownership, has become the primary conduit for this information deluge.

Shalev doesn't just outline the problem; he offers a roadmap for countering it. He scrutinizes the Harris campaign's response to Trump's tactics, drawing parallels to the Clinton campaign's struggles in 2016. His breakdown of Trump's "3% theory" provides crucial insight into why this flood of disinformation could be devastatingly effective, even if the majority recognizes it as false.

As the clock ticks down to election day, Shalev poses a critical question: Are we prepared to stem this tide of disinformation, or are we heading for another shocking upset? His urgent recommendations for combating this onslaught in the final weeks of the campaign are both practical and necessary.

"We're witnessing a repeat of 2016's disinformation playbook, but on steroids," Shalev warns. "Every tweet, every rally, every online interaction is part of this strategy. We have mere weeks to change the narrative." Tune in to hear Shalev's full analysis and his thoughts on whether we can avoid falling into the same traps that caught us off guard eight years ago.

Don't miss our upcoming episode where we'll dive deeper into the mechanics of this disinformation campaign and explore cutting-edge strategies to counter it. In the age of AI and evolving social media landscapes, Zev Shalev's insights are more crucial than ever.

In the latest episode of Narativ, host Zev Shalev and guest Dean Blundell deliver a chilling wake-up call to Canadians about the dire state of their democracy. The conversation paints a disturbing picture of a nation teetering on the edge of autocracy, with foreign interference and media corruption threatening to unravel the very fabric of Canadian society.

Blundell doesn't mince words as he exposes the rot at the core of Canada's media landscape. He reveals how outlets like Rebel News operate as little more than paid advocacy groups, pushing propaganda that aligns with Russian interests and far-right ideologies. The recent Supreme Court ruling confirming Rebel News produces less than 1% of actual news content is just the tip of the iceberg.

But the threat goes beyond biased media. The episode uncovers the alarming influence of foreign actors, particularly Russia, in Canadian politics. From co-opting influential individuals to running sophisticated disinformation campaigns, these efforts aim to polarize public opinion and undermine trust in democratic institutions. Even more shocking is the revelation that Canadian taxpayer money has been used to fund Russian propaganda films.

The urgency of the situation becomes clear as Shalev and Blundell discuss the upcoming election. They warn that Canadians face a stark choice between character and corruption, with the very soul of the nation hanging in the balance. The potential for a Pierre Poilievre-led government, coupled with the possibility of a Trump presidency in the US, paints a grim picture for North American democracy.

Time is running out for Canadians to wake up to these threats. This episode of Narativ serves as a crucial call to action, urging citizens to engage critically with the information they consume and to fight for the preservation of their democratic values. The future of Canada hangs in the balance, and every voice matters in this battle against creeping authoritarianism.

In this critical episode, geopolitical expert Rick Petree helps us unpack the escalating Middle East crisis and its potential to spark a wider conflict.

Key points:

Israel's ground offensive into Lebanon marks a significant escalation, with tanks crossing the border and airstrikes hitting Beirut's suburbs.

The humanitarian toll is staggering: nearly a million Lebanese displaced and rising casualties. Syrian refugees are even returning to their war-torn homeland, deeming it safer than Lebanon.

Israel's recent intelligence coup - assassinating Hassan Nasrallah and eliminating Hezbollah's top brass - has reshaped the battlefield but risks severe retaliation.

Netanyahu's domestic support surges, but at what cost to democracy?

Iran issues threats but hesitates to engage directly. Reports of Ayatollah Khamenei's relocation underscore the regime's vulnerability.

Shifting regional alliances: Saudi Arabia and Jordan's evolving stances hint at a new geopolitical landscape.

The Palestinian question is being reimagined, with new visions for Gaza's future emerging.

Petree's key insight: "Events move fast in this part of the world," and "Israel has really scored a coup here."

As the Middle East teeters on the brink, stay tuned for our ongoing coverage of this rapidly evolving crisis. 

Narativ has obtained exclusive details of President Volodymyr Zelensky's "Victory Plan" for Ukraine—a bold strategy to defeat Russia within months. This plan, targeting the war's end before 2025, could reshape Eastern Europe's geopolitical landscape.

To unpack the plan's implications, we spoke with Ambassador Kurt Volker, former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations and current Distinguished Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). With over 35 years of foreign policy experience, Volker offers unique insights into this critical development.

In our exclusive interview, Volker broke down the plan's four-pronged strategy: military, diplomatic, political, and economic. He explained how this comprehensive approach could force a Russian retreat by making defeat seem inevitable to Putin's regime.

Notably, Volker discussed the plan's more controversial aspects, including potential long-range strikes inside Russia. This move would significantly shift the conflict's nature and could impact international support for Ukraine's war effort.

According to Volker, the timing is crucial. With winter approaching and the U.S. presidential election on the horizon, Ukraine sees a narrow window to decisively change the war's course.

This Narativ exclusive offers more than breaking news—it provides insight into potentially history-making decisions unfolding in real-time.