Keep or Kut

Keep or Kut - Chad (@chadyoung) is joined by two guests to talk inflation in keeper leagues. Justin Vibber, creator of the Ottoneu Surplus Calculator, and Adam Scharf, who recently wrote a paper on inflation in Ottoneu, go from 101 (what is inflation and how does it impact leagues) to some more nuanced discussion of how thinking on inflation needs to evolve so we can be smarter fantasy players.

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Timestamps

8:10 - What is inflation and how does it impact both auctions and drafts in keeper leagues?

14:57 - Inflation can change who you think about as a keeper.

27:12 - The benefits and risks of trying to predict what your leaguemates will do.

37:13 - The risk of over- vs underestimating inflation.

44:29 - Adam recaps his paper and discusses the implications if we are under-calculating inflation.

58:19 - Is there an inflation curve across the value spectrum?

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Keep or Kut / On The Corner

Nick Pollack reviews Chad Young's 2024 Mock Draft. Chad picked from the 12th spot in this draft

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Full Draft Board

"League" info:
Standard Yahoo H2H Category 5x5 scoring format
12-teamer, 23 rounds
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, 2 UTIL, 9 P, 4 Bench
One-Way Ohtani (two separate players for DH and SP)

Chad's picks:
1 - Shohei Ohtani (Hitter)
2 - Spencer Strider
3 - Bo Bichette
4 - Zac Gallen
5 - Matt McLain
6 - Jordan Walker
7 - Eury Perez
8 - Emmanuel Clase
9 - Josh Naylor
10 - Riley Greene
11 - Jorge Soler
12 - Alexis Diaz
13 - Shane Bieber
14 - Wyatt Langford
15 - Isaac Paredes
16 - Kyle Harrison
17 - Braxton Garrett
18 - Kenley Jansen
19 - Trevor Rogers
20 - Ricky Tiedemann
21 - Justin Turner
22 - Esteury Ruiz
23 - Francisco Alvarez

Hosts: Nick Pollack | Chad Green
Producer: Adam Howe
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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) dive into Ottoneu arbitration. They go through the three leagues they compete against each other and look at who has received arbitration allocations that they wouldn't have expected. From prospects being hit too early in their careers to pitchers and the additional risk they carry, there are some good lessons about how to allocate your arbitration, as well.

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Timestamps

6:25 - Starting with the Podcasters League (1443), we are looking at Cole Ragans

15:15 - CJ Abrams had a bigger breakout than Chad realized.

20:09 - Are we ready to push up the salary on Elly de la Cruz?

31:45 - Moving to the Keep or Kut listeners league (1372) and feeling good about Triston Casas.

35:43 - But not as good about Jackson Holliday getting $6.

48:10 - Finishing up with the FanGraphs Staff League (13) which had fewer surprises but did feature some pitchers - Pablo López, George Kirby, Kyle Bradish - getting pushed

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) break down the PitcherList mock that they are in the middle of, viewing it from a keeper league perspective despite it being drafted as a re-draft league. Interested in playing in this league? Let one of the hosts know! We have a few spots open for next season.

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Timestamps

11:55 - After discussing how their respective fantasy seasons ended up, Chad and Pete start discussing the PL Mock 2024. Click here to see the Draft Board.

15:01 - Pete breaks down his start to the draft after taking Matt Olson 10th overall and José Ramírez 15th. Does the top of drafts in 2024 look deeper than ever before?

19:00 - Chad selected the 12th pick to lock up two of the top 13 players. He went with Shohei Ohtani (hitter) and Spencer Strider.

22:53 - Chad took Zac Gallen over Zack Wheeler, Luis Castillo, and Corbin Burnes. Was that the right move? Drafting pitching for 2024 looks to be a bit of a headache.

32:58 - Where are we at with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after his... fine (?) 2023?

38:33 - Who would you prefer to have a better price on in a keeper league: Jordan Walker or Matt McLain?

56:30 - Is Spencer Torkelson that different from Christian Walker? How does he stack up against Guerrero Jr., Walker, and Paul Goldschmidt?

1:16:15 - Is attacking ace starting pitching early in drafts the right move for 2024?

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) tentatively pick their keepers in the Keep or Kut Ottoneu listener league. The league is FanGraphs 4x4.

Interested in playing in this league? Let one of the hosts know! We have a few spots open for next season.

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Timestamps

7:24 - Pete declares some of his intentions as it comes to his keepers. It was a tough year building a rotation around Triston McKenzie, Max Scherzer, Cristian Javier, Robbie Ray, and Tony Gonsolin. So, he is excited to keep cheap Tyler Glasnow, Tanner Bibee, and a few others.

32:08 - As for his outfield... is a $23 Christian Yelich worth keeping? What about a $4 Sal Frelick?

38:04 - The breakdown of Chad's keeper situation begins. Like Pete, Chad plans to (most likely) clean house with his bullpen. His starting pitching is mostly being kept, but what do we do with a $5 Josiah Gray?

51:37 - Chad has a great problem at catcher: $14 Willson Contreras, $2 Ethan Salas, $3 Logan O'Hoppe, and a $1 Bo Naylor. Later on they discuss Rhys Hoskins and his potential worth, as well as whether or not they feel comfortable going into 2024 with Jordan Lawlar as their starting shortstop.

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) are starting to look at off-season decisions, including their keeper choices in their Keep or Kut listener leagues. They go over some of their toughest choices, analyzing players who will force difficult decisions in the coming months.

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Timestamps

1:02 - Before looking at the off-season, a quick look at the stretch run and fantasy playoff matchups, where Chad has to pick two of Hyun-jin Ryu, Nick Pivetta, and Gavin Williams to start.

12:30 - Time to turn our attention to keepers.

14:12 - Starting with Chad’s League 1 Roster, and his four most obvious keepers: Tyler Glasnow, Michael Harris II, Tanner Bibee, and Spencer Steer.

19:26 - At one point, Luis Robert Jr. was one of those obvious keepers, even for a 2nd rounder, but is he now?

22:42 - Masataka Yoshida is causing the same kind of issue later in the draft.

28:51 - Pete’s obvious league 1 keepers are George Kirby for 26th, Devin Williams for 15th, Francisco Alvarez for 14th, and that leads us to the saga of Chas McCormick.

35:32 - Piling up last-round keepers forces some interesting decisions.

38:24 - Is the talent enough to justify keeping Mason Miller?

42:42 - How cheap is cheap enough for Kris Bryant? Plus Pete has some fun rookies and another interesting closer in Kyle Harrison, Evan Carter, and Camilo Doval.

48:30 - In League 2, Chad is already thinking about what pick he wants, as it impacts the value on keeping Mookie Betts in the first.

54:44 - And that impacts some other tough calls at MI in Ezequiel Tovar, Andres Gimenez, Thairo Estrada, Xander Bogaerts, Justin Turner, and Zach Neto

1:01:40 - Meanwhile, Chad's minor leaguers are a debacle

1:09:47 - Pete’s team starting has Oneil Cruz (as does his team in league 1), but what is a good keeper cost for Cruz?

1:13:27 - Grayson Rodriguez is one of Pete's favorite keepers

1:21:53 - Pete’s insane pitching upside might force a trade for offense

1:24:23 - Pete’s minor league decisions on Gavin Williams, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Termarr Johnson, Kyle Manzardo, and Robert Hassel III, plus a really tough call on Anthony Volpe.

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) are back together... again! For Episode 115 they break down six interesting players who are interesting not only for September but certainly heading into the 2024 draft season as well.

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Timestamps

11:31 - Chad and Pete ponder over whether or not Nolan Schanuel will have enough power to be worth holding onto for 2024.

24:17 - is Davis Schneider legit? He is lighting the baseball world on fire!

33:23 - Juan Soto is still awesome. No one is going to debate that point. But, is he still worth a 1st round pick in 2024?

47:32 - Is Jose Altuve the #2 2B for 2024 behind only Mookie Betts?

54:41 - Carlos Rodón is a disaster right now. Is he worth keeping at $23? .... $21?... what about $19?!

1:02:09 - Cole Ragans has been unbelievable with his increased velocity and newfound slider. Is it new stuff, schedule, both, or what?

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Keep or Kut - Chad (@chadyoung) is joined by Niv Shah (@ottoneu), the creator of Ottoneu and Chad's co-manager in Ottoneu league 13. They have some tough choices to make this September and discuss those decisions, along with a handful of under-rostered players who might be a fit for your roster.

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Timestamps

Ep 114

1:32 - For episode 114, we discuss jersey number 14 and for Chad, that means it’s a prime opportunity to discuss the consistently underappreciated Larry Doby

7:07 - Outlining where Niv and Chad are in league 13 today, and their issues at MI, stemming from a weak auction and a miss on Vaughn Grissom

15:34 - Going into next week’s matchup, they have a gap at MI on Thursday and FA wire at MI is barren

20:20 - Thinking about how you use 40 roster spots and the relatively low value of small upgrades

24:53 - Do you go get a marginal improvement in your MI bench or a long-term potential star like Dylan Crews? Plus the advantage of having lots of cap space in the playoffs.

33:39 - Finding exciting prospects that are still available, including Adael Amador and Chase DeLauter

45:00 - Lower rostered players who are interesting for now or the future, starting with the boring but useful Nick Pivetta

51:23 - Jordan Wicks and Tejay Antone are both intriguing now and for the future

58:09 - Javier Assad is suddenly looking great

1:02:15 - Looking at bats and opening with Amed Rosario, lefty killer

1:06:18 - Brandon Belt and other oldie but goodies

1:11:49 - A few more dart throws

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) are back together and catching up on all the news Chad missed while he was out of the country. Plus, a series of listener questions as the Ottoneu trade deadline approaches.

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Timestamps

5:18 - What do you do with Shohei Ohtani

26:00 - Do you keep $57 Mookie Betts, $11 Isaac Paredes, or $6 Justin Turner?

36:16 - Wander Franco can be cut, right?

44:38 - Is keeping elite SP just a bad idea given how volatile elite SP was this year?

52:21 - A listener traded Max Scherzer, Spencer Torkelson, and Justin Topa for Zack Gelof, James Wood, and Bailey Ober, and wants to know what we think of his return.

57:32 - Is Seiya Suzuki fixed?

1:04:50 - Is Felix Bautista just done for a year?

1:09:03 - Is Carlos Rodon back?

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