Keep or Kut

Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) respond to some Twitter listeners' questions about their Ottoneu and keeper league teams.

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Timestamps

6:15 - Jeff asks if he should seek a trade in order to acquire some pitching after all of the recent injuries to arms such as Justin Steele and Eduardo Rodriguez.

17:16 - Brian wants to know what stats Pete and Chad look at when they are dissecting potential prospect adds.

30:01 - Nicholas is wondering if he should move a $52 Ronald Acuña Jr. since he is a seller, or if this expensive Acuna is actually a piece he should be holding on to for his rebuild.

37:23 - Michael has no idea what to do with his $31 Sandy Alcantara.

46:58 - John wants to know if there is any situation in which it makes sense to move Shohei Ohtani in a daily categories keeper league.

57:09 - Pete and Chad ramble about their teams in the Keep or Kut Listener Ottoneu league.

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) introduce the Keep or Kut Breakout Meter! They look at a handful of players who were being picked outside the top-200 in drafts but are inside the top-50 on the ESPN Player Rater, rating each on a 1-10 scale based on how much they believe in the breakout.

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Timestamps

4:46 - Pete deals Corey Seager and Jorge Soler for Wander Franco and Alek Manoah

9:57 - Going a little deeper on Manoah

17:38 - Chad is figuring out how much cash is too much to give up in a possible Ottoneu trade

23:10 - What are we paying for Royce Lewis?

30:05 - Introducing the Keep or Kut Breakout Metter; starting with Josh Lowe

39:45 - Up next is Esteury Ruiz

51:13 - Is Mitch Keller legit?

59:10 - Yandy Diaz hasn't changed his launch angle quite as much as you think

1:09:27 - Finishing up with Josh Jung and a quick mention of Soler's fly ball rate

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) reach the 100 mark! To honor this monumental number, they bring up 100 players in this information-packed episode.

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Timestamps

1:55 - Julio Urías and Dustin May to the IL. Gavin Stone up! Bobby Miller up!

8:44 - Jorge Polanco back to IL, Edouard Julien called up. Short stint or here to stay? Royce Lewis is killing it.

12:45 - Tyler Glasnow will have one more rehab start, could return vs LAD this week

15:52 - Eloy Jiménez ahead of schedule, could return late this week. Sell?

19:21 - Nolan Gorman's May has been out of this world

30:14 - Christopher Morel is, uh, hitting quite well

33:24 - Manny Machado lands on the IL. Target Jake Burger?

41:36 - Gary Sánchez is up with the Mets. How will this impact Francisco Álvarez?

43:40 - James Paxton is back! … and averaging over 96mph on the FB and looking good…!?

49:20 - Jazz Chisholm Jr. (turf toe) to the IL, thinks he can beat his timeline of 4-6 weeks.

51:57 - Adam Duvall started baseball activities, is he worth stashing and how will his return impact the Red Sox lineup. Jarren Duran is going no where!

1:00:53 - Triston McKenzie is almost back, how will this impact Cleveland's rotation?

1:09:13 - Bo Naylor debut!

1:11:34 - Is this a Mickey Moniak breakout?

1:14:27 - What to do with Joe Musgrove and his disastrous 2023 to this point

1:17:24 - Anthony Volpe is the 9th SS in ESPN 5X5. True or False: he finishes as a top 10 SS.

1:18:19 - Mitch Keller is the 3rd SP in ESPN 5X5. True or False: he finishes as a top 10 SP.

1:20:17 - The #1 (!!!) RP is not a closer or a SPRP in ESPN 5X5... it is Yennier Cano. True or False: he is Baltimore's closer by the end of the season.

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) wanted to look at potential buy lows, but it isn't enough these days to identify pitchers with a poor ERA but great peripherals, or hitters with bad results and a great xwOBA. So we go a level deeper and find pitchers whose ERA and FIP and hitters whose wOBA and xwOBA are ugly. And then we figure out who we might want to keep around.

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Timestamps

2:29 - Hitters who are struggling by wOBA and xwOBA

5:55 - Nolan Arenado is already bouncing back

14:33 - Manny Machado is in a dip, but that’s all

19:38 - Myles Straw is still running, but is that enough?

21:37 - There are some young players having issues and Ezequiel Tovar stands out

27:52 - George Springer just missed the cut but needs some attention too

34:55 - Maybe we need to reset expectations on Andres Giménez

38:08 - Switching to pitchers who are struggling by ERA and FIP

39:30 - Three rookies not living up to the hype - Ken Waldichuk, Ryne Nelson, Hayden Wesneski

49:00 - And three vets, as well - Lance Lynn, Michael Kopech, Taijuan Walker

1:04:48 - Final thoughts on players including Royce Lewis, Jazz Chisholm, and Brayan Bello

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) talk trades in their Ottoneu and keeper leagues as well as take questions from listeners, sharing their thoughts.

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Timestamps

2:03 - Eloy Jiménez had an appendectomy

6:48 - Alex Kirilloff is back, Oscar Gonzalez is down. Should one replace the other on your teams?

10:40 - Chad traded Jeff McNeil for Royce Lewis, Jonathan Aranda, and Evan Carter in FG 4x4

15:51 - Pete is considering trading his José Ramírez for someone else's Jackson Chourio and George Kirby in FG 4x4

22:14 - In a 5x5 H2H keeper league, Chad traded his Zack Wheeler for Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen

27:47 - In Chad's awesome food league, a member is wondering if it is too late for him to salvage the ERA category.

37:46 - Should Chad call up Brett Baty and Masataka Yoshida, or wait until the off-season to maximize profit?

45:01 - Huge trade in one of Pete's keeper leagues: Max Fried, Clay Holmes, Masataka Yoshida, and Anthony Volpe for Trea Turner, Dustin May, Will Smith (reliever), and Nick Castellanos.

56:54 - What do we do with Jacob deGrom when he gets healthy?

1:00:10 - If you are selling in an Ottoneu league, how much should the selling manager value the loans they give out?

1:03:36 - What do you do with average-priced stars in Ottoneu - cut or trade for flexibility with the possibility of getting them back, or keep?

1:05:27 - How do you value proximity vs perceived skill level as it relates to prospects in Ottoneu?

1:08:07 - Which side do we prefer: Josiah Gray or Josh Naylor?

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) Pull up pre-season projections and current rest-of-season projections to do a little compare and contrast and find who has moved the most. Plus a quick review of news and notes around the game.

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Timestamps

2:54 - Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee debut for the Guardians and we look at how they fit in with the rest of the rotation the rest of the way

18:09 - Joey Ortiz gets the call in Baltimore and we talk about him and the rest of the O's infield

24:11 - Are we moving on from Logan O’Hoppe? Cutting Robbie Ray? Buying in on Michael Busch? Plus, Degrom might be out, Harper might be back, Verlander is back, and a couple of NL Central extensions

30:42 - Some notes on how we did this projection comparison

32:11 - The ten hitters who have gained the most wOBA in their projections

35:33 - Pete is interested in Brandon Marsh and Jarred Kelenic, while Chad is fascinated by Jorge Mateo, plus looking at a recent auction for Brent Rooker.

47:67 - Ten hitters with the biggest drop in wOBA projections

49:14 - It's time to move on from a couple exciting young MI who just aren't getting it done

57:28 - We're still waiting on one of Eloy Jimenez and Jose Abreu, but not both.

1:07:01 - Relievers with improved FIP projections, featuring Chad admitting he was very, very wrong on Aroldis Chapman

1:12:30 - SP with improved FIP projections, focused on Matt Strahm and Mackenzie Gore

1:20:00 - Pitchers who have seen their FIP projections turn ugly, including a couple A's and a would-be ace we were both high on a month ago.

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) break down the recent news around the league and identify the ten biggest improvers in terms of K% from 2022 to 2023 so far in the young season.

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Timestamps

1:30 - By far the most important news - Liam Hendriks is cancer free!

5:33 - Max Scherzer is suspended.

9:16 - Garrett Mitchell is having shoulder surgery, his season is probably over. Add Jarren Duran?

13:05 - Logan Allen is up! What should we expect from one of Chad's Guardians?

19:38 - Trevor Rogers goes down with a shoulder injury. Could Madison Bumgarner end up a Miami Marlin?

27:28 - With Bumgarner DFA'd, when will we finally see Brandon Pfaadt?

32:44 - Kris Bubic is having Tommy John Surgery.

33:56 - Fernando Tatis Jr. has returned! ... and went 0-5.

41:48 - After explaining what this segment is about, Pete details why he does not care that Victor Robles has made a massive strikeout rate improvement.

44:55 - Xander Bogaerts has improved his strikeout rate by 8.8% so far and Chad is enticed.

47:38 - Pete is buying what Cody Bellinger is selling and thinks he might be breaking out again.

59:00 - Ke'Bryan Hayes has made the biggest improvement in K% from 2022 to 2023, which is great, but Chad wants to see some pull-side power before he buys back in.

1:03:40 - Nolan Gorman is breaking out, according to Pete.

1:07:42 - Shea Langeliers has been more patient and making more contact.

1:13:53 - Josh Jung has cut down on his exorbitant 2022 strikeout rate.

1:15:45 - William Contreras is another strikeout rate improver, but his HR/FB% is due for some movement in the right direction.

1:21:03 - Jarred Kelenic is another player that Pete thinks is breaking out, particularly due to his SwStr%.

1:24:23 - Chad's love of J.D. Davis rolls on as Davis finds himself to be one of the ten biggest improvers in K% so far.

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) break down the recent news around the league and how that will impact your keeper and Ottoneu teams. They then dive into six stats that stick out to them so far this season and what they mean going forward.

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Timestamps

1:31 - A listener asks about a $50 Trea Turner, $7 Jake McCarthy, and $2 Jackson Chourio for $46 Shane McClanahan, $10 Jake Cronenworth in a FanGraphs Points League

8:36 - Should you promote Taj Bradley if you have him on a minor league keeper roster?

16:29 - What about Brett Baty?

23:41 - Jeffrey Springs is having Tommy John Surgery... Nooooo!

28:20 - Enmanuel Valdez is up!

29:07 - Brandon Woodruff is having shoulder issues. What do you do with him in your keeper and Ottoneu leagues? Free up money or wait it out?

39:39 - WOOF WOOF! Carlos Rodón's back is "barking." Would you trade him for Joe Ryan? What about Cristian Javier?

56:04 - Pete is excited about Josh Lowe but is keeping an eye on his exit velocities

01:01:43 - Chad double dips as both Byron Buxton and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are posting league-worst strikeout rates and Chad has his concerns

1:07:32 - Graham Ashcraft is good! But, he probably isn't sub-1.50 ERA good! Not a hot take, but Pete breaks down his thoughts on Ashcraft

1:11:30 - Miguel Vargas' chase rate is not only impressive, it is one of the best in baseball. Chad wants to see Vargas start hitting for more power in the zone

1:16:10 - Pete thinks Matt Chapman is a buy-high because of his swinging strike rate

1:19:26 - Joe Ryan's K-BB% has Chad thinking that Ryan is an ace

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) go through the recent injuries, some happenings around the league, respond to some "true or false" statements, and eventually hone in on players they are targeting right now as potential cheap keeper options for 2024.

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Timestamps

1:31 - Josh Donaldson injury, Willie Calhoun promotion

3:35 - Darick Hall thumb surgery, will Dave Dombrowski make a move?

6:22 - Michael Harris II has a back strain, Chad is not concerned

9:46 - Eloy Jiménez is already hurt, sell when he returns?

13:48 - Max Fried hurt his hamstring and doesn't seem likely to return soon

16:05 - The debut of Grayson Rodriguez!

17:40 - The league ERA so far this season compared to the league ERA last season is significantly higher. Pete and Chad try to figure out why that is.

26:10 - True or False: Bryan Reynolds is a top 10 OF the rest of the season.

29:19 - True or False: Corbin Burnes is not a top 10 SP the rest of the season.

32:29 - True or False: Gleyber Torres is going to steal 25 bases this season.

34:26 - True or False: Adam Duvall will hit 40 home runs this season.

37:03 - True or False: Wander Franco will be a 1st round pick in 2024 drafts.

40:29 - Chad is intrigued by what Luke Raley has done so far and could see him being a deep-league, free keeper for next season

46:48 - Pete gets his "off the wall" random pick out of the way, and that is Connor Norby

52:18 - Elehuris Montero is being targeted by Chad, but he has work to do in the plate discipline department

56:36 - Pete likes Jose Siri for 2024 as Siri works through some approach adjustments this season

1:00:48 - If on your free agency market, target Rhys Hoskins and, to a lesser degree of importance, Gavin Lux if you are looking for useful 2024 keepers on the cheap

1:01:25 - Kyle Muller was... an Opening Day starter?! Yes! And he is also a target of Chad's.

1:04:10 - Hip surgery may lead him to a light work load this season, but Pete is in on Garrett Whitlock going forward and views him as a strikeout pitcher.

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Keep or Kut - With teams finishing up 3-4 games before we recorded, Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) look at some very small samples to determine who they are worried about and who they aren't. For each player, Chad makes a bold statement and Pete agrees or (more often) pushes back.

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7:43 - Jesse Winker is back in a big way.

18:14 - In 2023, we are getting the Bad Blake Snell.

25:05 - Jack Flaherty is healthy, but that might not be enough.

30:46 - Joe Ryan is the same Joe Ryan.

37:53 - Robbie Ray is a cut.

43:50 - A quick break to react to breaking news on Anthony Rendon.

49:00 - Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber show worrying trends.

1:00:00 - Jeffrey Springs is a Cy Young contender

1:06:45 - We wrap up with mentions of Anthony Volpe, DJ LeMahieu, Chris Sale, and some in-season Ottoneu content on FanGraphs including Jacob deGrom

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