Keep or Kut

Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) dissect all of the off-season moves to this point and their fantasy impacts. They also break down their top 10 catcher rankings for keeper leagues.

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Timestamps

4:43 - Breaking down all of the players who have been on the move so far

5:10 - Tyler Anderson to the Angels

8:32 - Gio Urshela to the Angels

14:24 - Hunter Renfroe to the Angels

16:15 - Jesse Winker to the Brewers

18:33 - Kolten Wong to the Mariners

21:51 - Jacob deGrom to the Rangers

22:36 - Chris Martin to the Red Sox

24:40 - José Abreu to the Astros

28:18 - Anthony Rizzo back to the Yankees

28:44 - Carlos Santana to the Pirates

28:55 - Teoscar Hernández to the Mariners

30:11 - Zach Eflin to the Rays

32:10 - Kyle Gibson to the Orioles

32:42 - Mike Clevinger to the White Sox

35:41 - Catcher Rankings

37:11 - Does Adley Rutschman deserve to be the #1 ranked catcher in keeper leagues?

40:24 - Daulton Varsho and his power+speed combo

45:00 - William Contreras vs Willson Contreras

49:12 - Chad's done with Salvador Perez

52:47 - Pete likes Sean Murphy at his current ADP

55:01 - Chad is flabbergasted by Francisco Álvarez's current ADP

57:35 - Chad is seriously done with Salvador Perez

59:29 - Pete has concerns about Danny Jansen's ADP

1:03:10 - Chad likes a few catcher prospects including Gabriel Moreno, Logan O'Hoppe, and Bo Naylor

1:08:34 - Any reason to be excited about Shea Langeliers?

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) pulled up the initial Steamer projections and found some numbers that surprised them. They also look at some of the first trades in the Keep or Kut listenener Ottoneu league.

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Timestamps:

0:37 - Non-tenders and trades in MLB

3:57 - Starting Steamer surprises with an unexpected name popping up in the top 10 for PA, plus the importance of playing time projections

8:28 - The conservative nature of projections

10:05 - A surprising name has the 11th highest wOBA projection from Steamer - is Vinnie Pasquantino that good?

19:55 - Jake McCarthy a top 5 SB threat?

27:23 - And Trea Turner a career LOW in SB??

34:20 - Are we ready to assume greatness from Fernando Tatis, Jr. again?

41:55 - Oneil Cruz to rein in the Ks but is that enough to make him a keeper?

46:57 - Of course Jacob deGrom is tops, are we ready to put Spencer Strider next?

51:12 - Camilo Doval second in saves?

54:57 - Trades that went down in the listener league

56:28 - $21 Freddy Peralta vs. $27 Seiya Suzuki

1:02:16 - $13 DJ LeMahieu for $15 Emmauel Clase

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) examine the results of the Pitcher List mock draft to figure out which players might be massive keeper values this season. Click here for full draft board.

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Timestamps:

0:00 - Houston Astros have won the World Series!

5:50 - Chad breaks down what this episode is all about.

8:10 - Gunnar Henderson is going early in drafts. Pete doesn't think it is just because of his talent, but also because of the 3B landscape.

13:46 - Chad wants to see how the shortstop situation in Atlanta shakes out before he completely buys in on 2023 Vaughn Grissom.

20:45 - Will Alexis Díaz be the Reds closer come April?

25:55 - Pete could see himself keeping Evan Phillips if he actually ends up as the Dodgers' closer.

30:08 BREAK

30:45 - Tony Gonsolin, Cristian Javier, and Nestor Cortes made massive jumps when comparing the PL Mock and NFBC ADP results to last year's NFBC ADP.

36:35 - Andrés Giménez, Nathaniel Lowe, and Anthony Santander have all seen big boosts in ADP.

42:25 - Adley Rutschman and Julio Rodríguez have experienced an obvious and substantial ADP rise. Pete and Chad talk 2023 expectations.

46:45 - Six players who were already being drafted in the top 120 in 2022 drafts have jumped at least four rounds so far in 2023 drafts.

51:21 - Is Bobby Witt Jr.'s ADP getting out of hand?

59:24 - Chad is unsure if he is keeping Willy Adames at a 9th or 10th round pick.

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Keep or Kut - With Ottoneu Arbitration underway, Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) talk about what arbitration is, why it exists, and how you should manage it. They even go through each other's teams in the Keep or Kut Listener League, with Pete assigning arbitration to Chad's team and Chad assigning it to Pete's.

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Timestamps:

2:23 - A little playoff baseball chatter

8:27 - What is arbitration and how does it work?

17:57 - Don’t target players to make them a cut; look to eat up value and place allocations that will stick long-term

32:29 - We get into some listener questions!

33:15 - When should you do your arbitration? Do you want to wait until the end?

38:33 - Does it make sense to allocate dollars to prospects?

47:30 - Chad and Pete look at each other's team in league 1372, starting with Pete allocating to the St. Ann Steamers.

52:45 - Chad returns the favor, allocating to the aptly named Pete's Team

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) share some names of guys who weren't elite fantasy producers in 2022 but could be in 2023.

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Timestamps:

1:54 - How we use Player Raters

4:06 - The parameters for our discussion and the top 25 on this year's Razzball player rater

7:19 - The case for DJ LeMaheiu

15:07 - Chad still isn't done with Trent Grisham

24:55 - Reasons to believe in Trey Mancini

32:12 - Nick Lodolo is ready for prime time

43:16 - Don't forget about Sean Manaea

51:36 - Oneil Cruz just needs playing time.

1:01:05 - Some other names who might - or might not - fit the conversation: Fernando Tatis, Jr., Jazz Chisholm, Jr., David Bednar, Seiya Suzuki, Jesus Luzardo, Luis Severino, Adley Rutschman, Wander Franco, Frankie Montas, Hunter Greene, Freddy Peralta, Roansy Contreras, Isaac Paredes, Vinnie Pasquantino, Triston Casas

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) continue down a list of players who they think will be hard to value going into 2023 drafts. This time around there are no pitchers, but quite a lot of outfielders. From the seemingly zapped power of Ronald Acuña Jr. to the extremely up-and-down season of Seiya Suzuki, Chad and Pete touch 'em all.

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Timestamps:

1:27 - Seiya Suzuki has had a roller coaster of a debut season. Regardless, Chad thinks that the final result is most likely reflective of what we should expect next season. Pete is holding out hope it could get better, but wants to see some improvement in that lineup.

12:03 - Tyler O'Neill was a major let down for folks this season. Chad found something odd about pitches in the heart of the plate, and Pete thinks the ban of the shift could help O'Neill after looking at his wOBA vs the shift in comparison to his wOBA with no shift.

28:40 - What happened to Ronald Acuña Jr.'s power? Him or Aaron Judge for 2023?

39:28 - Jesse Winker is turning 30, still can't hit lefties, and might be in a crowded outfield, so Pete thinks he is out on him. After doing some reading by author Michael Ajeto, Chad thinks Winker's issue could be mechanical.

46:53 - Pete is blaming any of his losses on Ketel Marte (completely unfairly, but man was he high on Marte!). Chad acknowledges the long period of time where Marte posted an elite wRC+, so maybe there is hope, but also wonders if the balls negatively impacted Marte.

54:35 - Chad and Pete want Joey Gallo to go some place that will be low-pressure and result in everyday at-bats.

1:02:03 - Taylor Ward's wRC+'s by month are crazy. Could his shoulder have prevented him from a monster season, making him a great buy in 2023 drafts?

1:05:45 - Is Oneil Cruz solving his strikeout issues, or are they still too shaky and the position too deep?

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) discuss players whose seasons just aren't that easy to interpret and who are therefore tough to value for the future. With keeper decisions around the corner, plus draft season coming, these are the guys we expect to keep us up at night.

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Timestamps:

2:02 - Plan to discuss players whose value is hard to lock down for next year.

2:55 - Kris Bryant, the Coors Field power outage, and 181 surprisingly good PA.

11:43 - The Trevor Story Roller Coaster.

17:37 - Is Jack Flaherty still living off 2019?

27:31 - Lucas Giolito's awful season.

38:48 - Are we worried about Juan Soto?

44:47 - Nick Castellanos misses home.

52:51 - Maybe Frankie Montas does, too.

59:18 - Paul Goldschmidt re-enters the 1B top 5.

1:02:50 - Is Nate Lowe far behind?

1:05:07 - Alex Bregman isn't in the top five, but who is ahead of him? Bobby Witt Jr.? Gunnar Henderson?

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) take a look at players who might be available in your leagues - whether in free agency or through an off-season trade - that may be worth targeting as you prep for the 2023 season in your long-term leagues.

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Timestamps:

6:50 - Pete is enamored with Nathaniel Lowe's elite second-half.

16:40 - David Villar is only 12.6% rostered on Ottoneu, but that isn't stopping Chad from targeting him in his leagues.

23:28 - How do we view Oneil Cruz while on one hand, his Brl% is over 15%! But, on the other, his K% is up near 38%.

30:27 - Nick Gordon has been swinging a hot bat and providing a lot of fantasy value despite an unspectacular success rate on the bases.

37:28 - The humidor in Oakland has Pete getting a little more interested in Seth Brown.

42:54 - Chad likes both Lane Thomas and Gavin Sheets, especially the former given that Tony La Russa might finally be out of town.

53:00 - Simply put: the hosts can't quit Blake Snell.

58:54 - Chad likes what he is seeing from young Arizona arms Drey Jameson and Ryne Nelson.

1:01:45 - Despite probably never becoming the closer, Pete still likes Alex Vesia.

1:03:34 - Pierce Johnson has returned and looked good.

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Keep or Kut - The new rules don't go into effect until 2023, but for your keeper leagues, they start impacting player values now. Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) look at the shift ban, pitch clock, larger bases and limits on pick-offs, discussing and debating the fantasy impact, plus their thoughts on whether the rules are good for the game.

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Timestamps

1:18 - A quick look at where Pete and Chad stand in their leagues as we enter the final month

6:29 - The shift rule and its impact on hitters who pull the a lot of grounders

20:14 - No shifts means a premium is placed on defense, particularly at 2B, which will impact the player pool

24:20 - Will the shift ban be good for the game of baseball?

26:41 - Comparing the new pitch clock to existing tempo data and wondering how this will impact SP, especially veterans

33:53 - Looking at the fastest and slowest working pitchers today

40:56 - Will the pitch clock be good for the game of baseball?

46:24 - The bigger bases and limits on pick-offs will increase stolen bases, particularly for guys who already steal a lot

55:07 - Will the pitch clock be good for the game of baseball?

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Keep or Kut - Chad (@chadyoung) is joined by Justin Vibber (@justinvibber), creator of the Ottoneu Surplus Calculator, which you can find at his Patreon (https://www.patreon.com/vibbot). Chad and Justin talk about surplus, trade deadline deals, and a couple of case studies to help think through trade decisions.

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Timestamps

2:08 - What is the Surplus Calculator, why does it matter, and how does the concept of surplus matter in fantasy baseball?

8:33 - Justin answers our regular question: what are the unique rules you use in your keeper leagues?

16:20 - Surplus is associated with the off-season, but how does it impact your thinking this time of year?

19:31 - Case Study #1 - Looking at Chad's situation in Ottoneu league 32

24:22 - Is surplus the only consideration for you as a seller?

28:18 - Thinking about H2H trades vs. season-long points or roto

32:05 - Reliever strategy in h2h vs. best ball

37:14 - The importance of SP depth in H2H

41:02 - Trading George Kirby for two SP?

45:28 - How league context drives trade decisions

49:15 - Case Study #2 - A big trade for Jacob Degrom, the importance of leverage in trades and targeting unique players you can't replace.

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