Knowledge at Wharton

This year’s convening of The World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland brought together approximately 2 400 corporate executives heads of government and leaders of organizations like the World Bank and Human Rights Watch to debate issues ranging from global warming to the rise of the Internet and the future of the Middle East. Michael Useem director of Wharton’s Center for Leadership and Change Management attended the five-day event. He offers his report on what he calls Davos’ ”culture of transcendent leadership ” which he defines as ”a willingness by those with company or country responsibilities to make decisions that benefit those far beyond the decision maker’s own organization or nation.”

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Every week one financial services firm or another releases findings of its latest retirement study: Americans aren’t saving enough. Americans are saving too much. The savings rate is abysmal. People are borrowing against their homes to pay for luxuries and so forth. Who’s right? It turns out not surprisingly that the future is hard to predict and that many calculators designed to make those predictions are flawed in their basic assumptions. Wharton experts try to help navigate the challenges of planning for retirement.

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Microsoft’s Vista operating system should give the company a revenue stream that will run for years but experts at Wharton say the January 30 launch of the consumer versions of Microsoft’s flagship software may be among the last of its kind -- a product sold for a flat fee in a shrink-wrapped box. Indeed many wonder if the software business model that has made Microsoft so dominant may begin to fade as new software business models -- from open source to advertising supported -- gain increasing traction.

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When Mike McCue founded Tellme in 1999 its initial product was a voice-driven information service what might be termed a ”voice portal.” Today the company’s voice-recognition systems power directory assistance services from AT&T Verizon and Cingular along with automated 800-number customer help lines at companies like Merrill Lynch and Federal Express. But McCue still harbors dreams of a broader voice-driven web one which will provide consumers with new ways of using the phone to interact with the universe of information. He discussed this vision and others during a recent interview with Knowledge at Wharton in Tellme’s Mountain View Calif. offices.

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On February 2 a long-awaited report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was released citing ”unequivocal” proof of global warming. Meanwhile some of the biggest corporations in the world including Wal-Mart Ford General Electric and BP have adopted highly visible ”green” strategies. But what does ”going green” mean for the bottom line? Whether motivated by desire to do what is right or to polish their public image and fend off government regulation companies can profit from environmental initiatives according to Wharton faculty and analysts.

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According to some industry estimates fantasy sports is now a $4 billion industry and growing quickly. What is fantasy sports who provides fantasy sports platforms what are the most popular fantasy sports and -- coming off the Indianapolis Colts’ recent Super Bowl win -- can we assume there will be a Super Bowl for fantasy football or for baseball basketball or hockey? Knowledge at Wharton asked Kent Smetters professor of insurance and risk management to bring us up to speed on the future of this industry.

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Last May Knowledge at Wharton spoke with John Paul MacDuffie a management professor at Wharton and co-director of the International Motor Vehicle Program about the state of the auto industry. It seems that not much has changed since then except maybe for the worse. 2006 was the first year since 1991 that Detroit’s Big Three were all in the red. Ford’s situation seems direr than ever; Chrysler which was profitable until mid 2006 is now preparing a restructuring plan to roll out this month; and Toyota has claimed the number-two spot in the U.S. auto market just behind GM. Knowledge at Wharton asked MacDuffie whether he expects any surprises or new strategies in 2007.

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2006 set a record for mergers and acquisitions worldwide. Deals totaled $3.79 trillion 38% higher than in 2005 and 55 of the transactions were valued at more than $10 billion each according to data from Thomson Financial. Private equity firms were major movers in this trend responsible for 20% of global M&A activity and 27% of activity in the U.S. according to Thomson. How long will this M&A binge continue and when it does come to an end what will be the factors behind the retreat? Knowledge at Wharton asked management professor Harbir Singh an expert on corporate acquisitions and restructuring to offer his views on the M&A landscape.

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The U.S. economy may be getting stronger but that doesn’t mean interest rates will go up when the Federal Reserve meets next week on January 31. According to Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel interest rates should hold firm at their current level for quite a while. In an interview with Knowledge at Wharton Siegel discusses the current balance ”between strength and moderate inflation ” where the housing market is headed and why investors should be cautious about emerging markets like China which ”looks like a bubble.”

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Apple’s name change from Apple Computer to Apple on January 9 highlights the company’s new reality: CEO Steve Jobs’ strategy today revolves around converged consumer devices much more than around personal computers. How successful will this new strategy be in the face of competition from Microsoft Sony Motorola Samsung Nokia and others who are looking to dominate the digital convergence domain?

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