Did the illicit fentanyl trade experience a supply shock?

Science

In the United States overdose deaths (ODDs) from synthetic opioids peaked in mid-2023 and then began a sharp decline decreasing by over one third by the end of 2024. One possible explanation is a decrease in fentanyl supply. The purity of fentanyl powder rose in 2022, cresting at 25% in early 2023, but by the end of 2024 purity had fallen to 11%. From 2019 to 2024 the rate of ODDs correlated with the purity of fentanyl in both powder and pills. Drug seizures also peaked in early 2023 and then decreased by 37% in 2024. Analysis of Reddit posts by drug users found increased mentions of “drought” in 2023 that remained high at the end of 2024. All these indicators suggest a reduction in fentanyl supply beginning in 2023. In 2023 China took aggressive action against suppliers of synthetic opioid precursor chemicals, likely a result of meetings between Presidents Biden and Xi. This suggests international cooperation can help reduce ODDs. 

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