This week marks the rather grim milestone of a year since the World Health Organisation declared the COVID-19 spread a global pandemic. But with vaccines being rolled out and lockdown easing, we might be glimpsing the light at the end of the tunnel. The big question remains: what will the world look like when lockdown is over?

For investors and for policymakers, this is especially thorny because it partly depends on individual behaviour. What will reopening mean for the large savings balances that wealthier individuals have amassed? Will people flash the cash on meals out and foreign travel as soon as economies start to re-open? And what will all of that mean for growth, inflation and the market environment? 

Stephanie Kelly discusses the tricky question of post-pandemic economic forecasting with James McCann, with some hints from our mini-survey of the Macro Bytes team and what they're personally most looking forward to in life after lockdown.  

In this episode we are discussing the themes and debates shaping the global macro-economic and market environment. 

Ahead of International Women’s Day on March 8th, this week’s episode of Macro Bytes focuses on gender equality. Sharing the findings from the newly published research ‘A Woman’s Place’ , the episode explores why boosting female participation in the labour force is key to unlocking long-term economic growth and what policies really work. It turns out, men are a crucial piece of the puzzle.

Find out more about A Woman's Place 

We'll be publishing further editions of the research throughout the year so stay up to date by visiting our Research Hub where you'll find related articles, upcoming events and links to download the full working research paper.

If there’s one thing that’s certain about the pandemic, it’s uncertainty. So how do economists and investors make forecasts in this environment? Our latest episode explains why drifting into epidemiology has become an occupational hazard when it comes to forecasting the macro-economy and markets.

Our hosts Stephanie Kelly and Paul Diggle are joined once again by Jeremy Lawson, Chief Economist and head of the ASI Research Institute. Together they discuss the complex process of economic forecasting, and explain the additional uncertainties introduced by Covid-19 that mean vaccine rollout and lockdown  stringency are important economic considerations.
 
Part 1 focuses on how the pandemic has changed the way economists do their forecasts, and describes a framework for integrating vaccine rollout and lockdown stringency into the outlook for economies and markets. 
 
Part 2 considers the outlook for vaccine rollout and expectations for re-opening, as well as the longer term impacts of the crisis.

Biden’s bold fiscal stimulus proposal has sparked a wider debate in the investment community about the limits of fiscal policy. Should we worry about governments running large deficits and building up huge debt loads? Or are the costs of doing too little greater than doing too much?

In this episode, our host Paul Diggle is joined by fellow economists from the Aberdeen Standard Investments Research Institute, James McCann and Luke Bartholomew. Together they discuss the role of fiscal policy in the pandemic recovery, and whether economies risk having ‘too much of a good thing’.

Part 1 addresses why a country is not like a household in its debt carrying capacity, what that means for austerity versus fiscal stimulus, and whether debt-to-GDP limits are much larger than people think.

Part 2 turns our attention to the current debate over the size of fiscal stimulus in the US, the role of fiscal policy when central banks are so constrained, and what such huge stimulus measures mean for the inflation outlook.

How are EU institutions handling the Covid challenge and what are the prospects for EU recovery? With Draghi trying to form a new government in Italy, upcoming elections in Germany to decide who replaces Merkel, and a difficult vaccine rollout being a potential source of euroscepticism, it's safe to say that 2021 has change in store for European politics.

This week on Macro Matters, our hosts Stephanie Kelly and Paul Diggle return our attention back to Europe and bring us up to speed on the recent economic and political developments impacting the EU.

Part 1 focuses on Europe’s handling of the covid crisis, covering vaccine roll out, fiscal policy and the role of the European Central Bank.

Part 2 covers both Germany and Italy, discussing the implications of Germany’s next chancellor and the task ahead for the Draghi government.

Science meets politics in this week’s episode of Macro Matters. As the race continues to roll out a coronavirus vaccine, what should be a positive step towards normality has turned into a political debate over supply. Are we seeing the emergence of vaccine nationalism, and what does this mean for Covid diplomacy?

This week on Macro Matters, our hosts Stephanie Kelly and Paul Diggle are joined once again by Robert Gilhooly, our in-house Senior Emerging Markets Research Economist. Together they discuss the political implications of the Covid vaccine rollout and what this means for foreign policy, UK-EU relations, and emerging markets.

Part 1 focuses on vaccine nationalism covering Brexit, Euroscepticism and border controls.

Part 2 ends with vaccine diplomacy and covers vaccine donations, emerging market vaccine supply and Covax.

As America’s new president is sworn in and the Biden administration officially begins, our host Stephanie Kelly explores what to look out for in Biden’s first 100 days. What changes are in store for fiscal policy and what does this mean for investors?

This week we're joined by Clayton Allen, director of Eurasia Group, who brings a wealth of knowledge having worked in both the Senate and the White House. Joining Clayton is James McCann, our own in-house expert and Senior Global Economist.

Part 1 begins with Clayton answering key questions concerning party politics today. How unified is the democratic party? Who are the key people to watch? And why is Joe Manchin so important?

Part 2 sees James cover the implications of the Biden administration on our growth forecasts and the markets outlook.

Today we are joined by the economist Bridget Rosewell to talk about the post-pandemic future of cities. Bridget is a leading expert in the economics of cities, transport, economic infrastructure, and she was Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to the Greater London Authority for a decade in the 2000s. 

The pandemic has wide-ranging implications for the future of cities. Lock-down measures have reduced the use of office space, halted the hospitality sector and changed how we use transport systems. But is city-flight a temporary phenomenon? Or are cities more resilient than we think?

In this episode our host Paul Diggle discusses the post-pandemic future of cities with the esteemed British economist Bridget Rosewell. Once the Chief Economist for the Greater London Authority and now Non-Executive Director of Network Rail, Bridget shares her leading expertise on the economics of cities and transport.