Semiconductor chips are in short supply and high demand at the moment. These chips are technologically hard to make and production is highly concentrated in Taiwan and Korea. With semiconductors present in an ever-increasing share of the goods that global consumers buy, a global shortage can be seen as akin to a modern-day oil shock - with widespread consequences for economic activity, inflation, and even geopolitics.

In this episode, our host Paul Diggle is joined by Sree Kochugovindan, Senior Research Economist and Robert Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Research Economist from abrdn Research Institute. Together they discuss the reasons behind the global semiconductor shortage and what this means for markets.

Part 1 explores the supply and demand factors behind the current shortage their consequences and how long they may last.

Part 2 focuses on the implications for inflation, chip production, geo-strategic competition and reliance on global supply chains. 


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The Scottish National Party (SNP) won a fourth term in power in the recent Scottish election. Despite falling one seat short of absolute majority, with the backing of the Greens, they will be able to form a pro-independence coalition. What does this mean for the Scottish independence referendum and how will it impact investors and the economy?

Our host Stephanie Kelly is joined by Luke Bartholomew, Senior Monetary Economist at abrdn. With the results of the recent Scottish elections,  eyes turn to the question of independence and its impact on the UK economy.

Part 1 begins by discussing the pre-election political context in the UK and the key takeaways from Scottish and local English elections.

Part 2 discusses the path and barriers to a Scottish independence referendum and explore what Scottish independence would mean for monetary policy, currency and the Scottish economy.

After the Great War and Spanish Flu, the 1920s saw a rejuvenation of the economy with a golden age of booming consumerism, innovation and culture. Now economists are questioning whether history is set to repeat itself. Will we see the 2020s roar? Or is secular stagnation here to stay?

In this episode our host Paul Diggle is joined by special guest Dominic White, Head of Economics at Absolute Strategy Research. Having published a recent note ‘Signs of a shift out of Secular Stagnation’, Dominic comes with some interesting views on how we can compare the 1920s economic boom with the 2020s in relation to the economic aftermath of the Covid pandemic.

Part 1 begins by characterising the Roaring Twenties decade, drawing parallels between 1920 and 2020 and explaining secular stagnation.

Part 2 discusses why the Roaring 2020s analogy falls short and focuses on why investors and markets should remain optimistic.

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Biden vowed to ‘reset’ the approach to foreign policy and rekindle international relationships. But how has he fared? Join Stephanie Kelly and special guest Jeffrey Wright as they discuss repairing allyship in Europe, the US China relationship and what this means for the macro environment.    

Jeffrey Wright, analyst at Eurasia Group's North America practice, shares his expertise in US fiscal, foreign, trade, and regulatory policy, as well as presidential politics.

Part 1 begins by summarising Biden’s approach to foreign policy compared to his predecessor. In particular, the discussion is around the US position in global politics and how allies are reacting to a more friendly US partnership.

Part 2 The focus then shifts to the climate agenda, the US China stand-off and impacts on countries caught in the cross hairs. 

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This week on Macro Bytes we welcome Dr Grégory Claeys to discuss the European Central Bank (ECB) strategic review. Can monetary policy be used in the fight against climate change and what does this mean for the ECB?

In this episode our host Paul Diggle is joined by special guest, Dr Grégory Claeys. Senior Fellow at the European think tank Bruegel and Associate Professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers in Paris. Grégory talks to us from Brussels to share his expertise in macroeconomics, central banking and European governance.

Also joining Paul is the familiar voice of Luke Bartholomew, our in-house Monetary Economist. Together they discuss the impending ECB strategic review and how climate change can be incorporated into monetary policy.

Part 1 gives the background on the ECB strategic review, and explains how the inflation target and the tools of monetary policy may change.

Part 2 focuses in on climate change in relation to monetary policy, the tools a central bank has to fight climate change, and how it fits in with the ECB’s mandate.

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The Covid Crisis has thrown the sustainability of the European Union’s fiscal rules into question. This episode of Macro Bytes discusses the main reform proposals on the table and debates whether a new European fiscal architecture is needed for the post-pandemic world.

Welcome to another week of Macro Bytes. In this episode our co-hosts Stephanie Kelly and Paul Diggle address the motivations for, and problems with, the European Union’s longstanding fiscal rules.

Part 1 outlines what the EU fiscal rules are, why they were needed in the first place, and why they have recently been so heavily criticized.

Part 2 covers the various reform proposals that have been put forward, before discussing the key political players across Germany and Italy that investors should look out for.

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As Biden unveils a $2 trillion dollar infrastructure package for the US, it’s clear that his administration are committed to strengthening the post-pandemic economy. This episode of Macro Matters discusses the key challenges of the proposal and what it means for politics, climate change and beyond.

Joining our host Stephanie Kelly for another US politics special is the familiar voice of Luke Bartholomew , our Senior Monetary Economist and regular guest on the podcast. Together they open up the conversation around Biden’s bold infrastructure plan and its macro and political impacts.

Part 1 sets the scene for the US in terms of the Covid crisis before explaining what the infrastructure package includes and how it's funded

Part 2 covers what this new proposal actually means in relation to politics, the macro environment and climate change.

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Are higher bond yields a headwind to the economic recovery and financial markets, or justified by the improvement in economic prospects as countries recover from the pandemic? This week on Macro Matters, we look at government bond markets to understand the impact of higher yields on the economic recovery and investors.

 Our host Paul Diggle is joined by the familiar voice of Luke Bartholomew, our in-house monetary policy expert, as well as Ross Hutchison, Investment Director at abrdn who works at the coal-face of government bond markets. Together they discuss the causes of the rise in bond yields, the implications for the economy and markets, and what central banks are saying and doing about it all.
 
 

How have emerging economies weathered the Covid storm? This week on Macro Matters, we look across Latin America, Russia and Asia to understand the different challenges facing emerging markets along the road to recovery.

In this episode our host Stephanie Kelly is joined by two of our Emerging Market Economists from the ASI Research Institute, Robert Gilhooly and Edward Glossop. Together, they discuss the Covid crisis from the perspective of emerging markets and the implications of the crisis on future growth prospects.

Part 1 begins by explaining the EM experience of the pandemic versus DMs before focusing on Latin America to discuss the political implications of the crisis.

Part 2 gives an update on Chinese and Russian vaccine diplomacy and the impact of the Biden administration on Latin America and China.

As the pandemic continues to accelerate the long-term shift away from cash transactions, central banks around the world are seriously considering digital currencies as a way to keep up with digitalisation. But what would a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) look like? How could it change the way we all save and spend money, and what does this mean for the future of commercial banking?

Welcome to another episode of Macro Matters. This week our host Paul Diggle is joined by special guest David Oxley, Senior Economist from Capital Economics. Together with Luke Bartholomew, our in-house Monetary Economist, they discuss whether central banks should issue digital currencies.

Part 1 brings us up to speed on what CBDCs are, how they differ from cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, and what it would mean in practice for us all to have a bank account with the central bank.

Part 2 discusses the potential costs and benefits of CBDCs, focussing on the consumer and business innovations that could be possible, how CBDCs might change monetary policy, and the future of commercial banks in this brave new world.