What does 2021 have in store for the global economy? Rested after the festive break, our hosts Paul Diggle and Stephanie Kelly regroup for the first episode of 2021. Together they look forward to the year ahead and answer 7 questions shaping our economic and political outlook

• How big is the drag from renewed lockdowns?
• How quickly will vaccines be rolled out and gain macroeconomic traction?
• What does the Brexit deal actually mean?
• What will a Biden Presidency do?
• Is the global economy facing fiscal cliffs?
• Will monetary policy remain a support?
• Which way will inflation go?

In our final podcast of 2020, we're joined by Felicity Burch, Director of Innovation and Digital at the CBI and James McCann, Senior Economist at ASI. What does the future hold for business? How important is innovation and why does research matter for economists and investors alike?

In part 1, we consider why innovation matters for business, the "silver-lining" effect that Covid has had in incentivising firms to innovate, and the challenge companies face to keep up the momentum as the world returns to something closer to ‘normal’ in 2021.

In part 2, we discuss why innovation is a key factor for the macroeconomic outlook and how research can allow investors to identify the winners and losers of digital innovation.

Climate change. A force shaping our economy as well as our geography. Our experts in this week’s podcast bring the climate agenda into sharper focus. What risks does climate change pose for the markets and how can investors use climate scenarios to better inform their understanding of the risks and opportunities in the coming decades?

Part 1 highlighting the risks that climate change poses to life as we know it and then moves to the importance of climate scenarios for investors seeking to understand both physical and transition risks.

Part 2  highlights the growing demand for climate scenario analysis from clients, regulators and beyond. 

Inflation or deflation? It’s a question fuelling debate across the investment community. Our experts on this week’s episode discuss the impact of the Covid crisis on inflation and the likelihood of fiscal dominance.

Our host Paul Diggle is joined by two familiar faces from the Aberdeen Standard Research Institute, giving us a trio of economic expertise - Sree Kochugovindan, Senior Research Economist and Luke Bartholomew, Senior Monetary Economist. 

Part 1 focuses on the outlook for energy and food prices, the impact of tax cuts and wages support, and the practical difficulties of measuring inflation during a pandemic.

Part 2 compares the high inflation of the 1970s and the low inflation of the 2010s, applying the lessons of these distinct historical inflation regimes to the inflation outlook from here.

This week on Macro Matters we welcome the renowned professor and author, Barry Eichengreen to discuss polarised politics in the eye of a Covid storm. How has coronavirus fueled the populist narrative and what does this mean for investors?

Part 1 begins by touching on themes from Barry’s published works and explains the key drivers of populism and its impact on economic growth. Diving into the pandemic, the discussion turns to Covid’s unequal economic impact whilst also covering the US Election and the challenges being faced in Eastern Europe.

Part 2 follows Steph and Paul as they discuss examples of populism in action today, what it means for investors and what we can expect going forward.

This week we welcome Bloomberg’s Chief Economist, Tom Orlik, to discuss China and the widespread prediction that it's a bubble about to burst. Is the Chinese economy really on the cusp of collapse? Or have doom-mongers been getting it wrong?

Part 1 will cover the frequent oversimplification of the Chinese economy by outside observers, the long-term growth trajectory and how China performed during the Coronavirus outbreak.

Part 2 questions the impact of the US Election on US-China relations whilst also touching on its 2060 zero-carbon commitment.

This episode turns our attention to Europe. What does a Biden win mean for Brexit, and what is the future of Europe after Angela Merkel steps down next year?

Part 1 follows on from the US Election to discuss the result and its impact on EU-US relations.

Part 2 dives deeper into the EU agenda covering the pandemic, Europe post-Merkel, Brexit, and the longer term challenges facing the Eurozone.

As the dust begins to settle after a huge turn-out both on and before polling-day in the US, Senior Political Economist Stephanie Kelly and Senior Economist Paul Diggle invite Chief Economist, Jeremy Lawson, back on to the show to take stock of the standings as they unfold. What are the early indicators? What happens next? And how are the markets responding so far?

A note on timing: we recorded the podcast at 11.00 UK GMT and 06.00 Washington DC time on November 4th 2020.

As the US Election race enters its final week before the big day in November, there could only really be one topic of conversation: who is in the lead, and what do the different possible outcomes mean for the markets and for investors?

Our Senior Global Economist, James McCann, joins us from Boston, Mass. to discuss the state of the race with Senior Political Economist, Stephanie Kelly.  What would be the best outcome for growth forecasts?  What's the worst?  And in the heat of the high-profile tussle between the two Presidential runners, what should investors be focussing on?   

For part 2, Stephanie takes the hot seat and Senior Economist, Paul Diggle, picks up the questioning of polling accuracy.

What lessons can economists learn from how a virus spreads, and what pitfalls should they avoid? Our guest, the distinguished economist Paul Ormerod, suggests that the macro-modellers of the Covid-19 virus might have missed a trick; put simply, they didn’t properly take into account the fact that people faced with a situation – any situation – are highly likely to change their behaviour as a result. 

And if economics is all about human behaviour, should economists have been as closely involved as epidemiologists in modelling the approach to managing the virus back in March?