Macro Waves

This latest issue of MacroWaves is devoted to the repercussions of the energy shock and the rise of AI in emerging economies. The spring of 2026 saw by mounting risks: war in Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and soaring energy prices. Yet, against all expectations, emerging economies withstood the shock remarkably well.

Lucas Plé and Hélène Drouot, both economists in the Emerging Economies team, help us understand this resilience. Why did the energy crisis not cause the economy to derail? Can the rise of artificial intelligence offset the negative impact of rising energy prices? What are the identified risks of this increased dependence on technology?

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EcoPerspectives - Emerging Economies | 3rd quarter of 2026, as of July 13, 2026– Economic Research – BNP Paribas

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Since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East on 28 February, energy markets have experienced increased volatility, with a marked rise in oil and gas prices. However, our analysis indicates that the impact on advanced economies is likely to be moderate, provided that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not drag on. What mechanisms are at work and what risks have been identified?

In this new episode, Lucie Barette and Marianne Mueller analyse the consequences of the current energy shock triggered by the conflict in the Middle East on advanced economies

BNP Paribas Economic Research website

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Welcome to this new episode of MacroWaves, the podcast from BNP Paribas’s Economic Research department. In this episode, we’re joined by Pascal Devaux to discuss a crucial issue for Europe: its energy dependence. Reliance on imports highlights the European Union’s lack of energy sovereignty. This applies to both the primary energy mix and the infrastructure needed for its low-carbon transition.

The EU is making progress, however, albeit very slowly.

To what extent is the European Union dependent? What approaches could enable it to reverse the trend, or at least make progress? That is what we will explore in this episode.

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In this new episode of MacroWaves, we examine how artificial intelligence is reshaping growth in emerging economies. We hear from three economists at BNP Paribas Economic Research: Lucas Plé, Christine Peltier, and Hélène Drouot.
While Asia dominates semiconductor production, other countries, such as those in Latin America and Africa, are either exploiting their mineral resources or falling behind.
What challenges will they face? The answers lie in moving upmarket, securing energy supplies and avoiding increased geopolitical dependence in order to transform this opportunity into sustainable productivity gains.

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Between rising interest rates, an ageing population and massive rearmament needs, the budgetary equation for advanced economies is becoming increasingly complex. Why is debt continuing to grow in the United States and France, while it is falling in Spain and Italy? How does Germany intend to finance its infrastructure and defence without jeopardising its budgetary stability?
In this new episode of En Eco dans le texte, Stéphane Colliac, Marianne Mueller and Benjamin Puiseux explain the inner workings of public debt. They also explore reasons for optimism: from the impact of artificial intelligence on productivity to reforms in the employment rate of senior citizens.
These are certainly significant constraints, but are they really insurmountable? Delve into the issues that will shape global economies between now and the end of the decade.

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Hello, everyone, and welcome to another episode of Macro Waves, the BNP Paribas Economic Research podcast. Today, we're looking at household consumption, which remains the main driver of growth in both the Eurozone and the United States. As we all know, household consumption suffered a major negative shock during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, growth has remained very moderate in the Eurozone, while it has accelerated sharply in the United States. After the pandemic, the inflationary crisis and contrasting economic policies of recent years, where do we stand on either side of the Atlantic?

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In today’s discussion, we delve into the public finances of emerging economies in 2025, based on an exclusive analysis of our most recent EcoPerspectives issue focused on these economies. With robust but slowing growth, rising public debt and limited fiscal flexibility, what challenges and opportunities lie ahead for these countries?

That's what we're going to explore with Hélène Drouot, an expert on Latin America and Lucas Plé, who specialises in sub-Saharan Africa

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Since Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2025, the United States has massively increased its tariffs. As a result, trade flows to the US have been disrupted, but has this affected the dynamics of global trade? And above all, are we heading towards a major restructuring of global trade?

Fins out more here: EcoPerspectives — Advanced Economies | 3rd Quarter 2025– Economic Research – BNP Paribas

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As we enter the second half of the year, and after a first half marked in particular on the economic front by the tariff war initiated by the United States, we suggest that we pause and look back for a moment. This will allow us to understand the dynamics that have shaped our economies over the last six months. It will also help us to identify to what extent and in what way they will impact the economic outlook for the second half of the year. What scenario should we expect?

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To highlight the publication of the second quarter issue of EcoPerspectives Emerging Economies, three members of the Emerging Economies team speak in ‘MacroWaves’: Christine Peltier, Cynthia Kalasopatan Antoine and Lucas Plé. This is an opportunity to take stock of the specific challenges facing countries.

In this podcast, our economists review the consequences of US tariff increases on global growth, the dynamics of international trade reconfiguration, and the reorganisation of value chains. We will analyse the effects of these upheavals on emerging countries.

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