Artificial intelligence is moving off the screen and into the real economy. For investors, that shifts the focus from software productivity to how labour, capital and markets themselves could be repriced.

With machines, such as humanoid robots, increasingly taking on physical tasks, from driving and cleaning to providing healthcare, the question isn’t just how much productivity improves. It’s who benefits, how quickly economies adjust, and what gets disrupted along the way.

In Episode 84 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and Head of FX & EM Macro Strategy Themos Fiotakis dig into that tension. On the one hand, history suggests that major technological shifts ultimately create wealth, expand output and spawn new industries. On the other, those transitions can be slow, uneven, and politically and economically destabilising, especially if labour displacement outpaces the ability of economies to adjust.

The conversation moves from theory to markets. What does stronger productivity mean for equity returns? Could capital-intensive AI investment push up yields and debt issuance? And if adoption is uneven, which currencies benefit first?

What emerges is a familiar “flip side” dynamic: the long-term story may be compelling, but the path to get there could be far more volatile than expected.

Clients of the Investment Bank can read further analysis of these themes in ‘Embodied AI: Wealth creation or economic displacement?’ on Barclays Live.

Gasoline prices in the United States have risen to over $4 per gallon since the Iran war began in February. When combined with higher car prices, higher interest rates and rising auto loan delinquencies – not to mention other affordability concerns consumers face – might consumers change their car buying preferences?​

In this episode of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Dan Levy, US Autos and Mobility Equity Research Analyst, debate whether higher fuel costs are the straw that breaks the camel's back, or if strong vehicle preferences and a more concentrated set of affluent buyers are enough to hold current dynamics. ​

They also discuss whether fuel costs could be a catalyst for electric vehicle (EV) adoption, and if technology improvements could make autonomous ride hailing a credible alternative to car ownership in the future. ​

Listeners can learn more about this topic:​

• Flip Side ep.79: Will the US consumer hold up in 2026? ​
• Barclays Brief ep.12: Robotaxis: The future of mobility​

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read our latest reports by logging in to Barclays Live:​

• Gauging the impact on autos from higher oil prices - questions on mix, inflation ​
• EV Report Card: A closer look at the Chinese EV mix shift

Since 2022, AI capital investment has skyrocketed. But can AI capex reach $1 trillion by 2028, as our Equity Research analysts forecast? Labs are reporting rapid growth, and signs show AI demand spreading beyond the hyperscalers to sovereigns and non-tech enterprises. Yet practical barriers such as power supply, infrastructure timelines and the need for clear ROI could but the brakes on capex.

In episode 82 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Tom O'Malley, Equity Research Analyst for US Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment, debate whether today’s rapid AI adoption is enough to justify that level of capex or if real-world constraints will force expectations lower.

Listeners can learn more about this topic:

• Barclays Brief Ep 25: The cusp of a capex super cycle
• AI gets physical: Innovation meets opportunity

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read our latest reports by logging in to Barclays Live:

• Framework for Modeling AI Demand & Supply – Capex 'Peak' Likely in 2028
• Powering AI: Gas Turbines Could Make or Break AI Ambitions

Important Content Disclosures

Private credit has been a powerful growth engine for alternative asset managers, with business development corporations (BDCs) playing a central role. As AI adoption accelerates and software business models come under pressure, investors are concerned with how exposed these managers are to software and other tech-enabled business models that could be disrupted. In recent weeks, investors have sold down their positions, sending some alternative asset managers’ stock prices down roughly 25%. But is that selloff rational or not?

In episode 81 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, our Global Head of Research, is joined by Ben Budish, our Equity Research Analyst who covers US Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges, to debate whether the recent selloff was justified. They discuss why AI disruption has become a focal point for markets, how valuation frameworks for alternative managers amplify volatility, and where risks may be overstated versus structurally real. The conversation also explores what this means for future growth across private credit, private equity and insurance channels, and where differentiation may emerge after an indiscriminate selloff.

Listeners can hear more on this topic on our sister podcast, Barclays Brief:

1. Software: In the AI storm

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on our view on equities with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including:

1. Barclays HY Software Agentic AI Disruption Risk in Focus
2. Software Is Not Dead, Just Changing
3. Widespread Exposure to Software Creates Uncertainty

Important Content Disclosures

After more than a decade of US equity dominance, international markets made a rare comeback in 2025. Europe, Japan, Emerging Markets and the UK outperformed, the majority of global equity flows went outside the US, and investors began to revisit long‑standing assumptions around US equities exceptionalism.

Was this simply a cyclical reset after years of US outperformance, or the start of a more durable shift in global equity allocation?

In this episode of The Flip Side, our Global Head of Research, Brad Rogoff, is joined by our Head of European Equity Strategy, Emmanuel Cau, to debate what drove last year’s rotation, whether it has further room to run, and how investors should think about diversification in 2026.

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on our view on equities with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including:

1. Chaotic, but resilient – February Chart Pack
2. Buy/Sell American

Important content disclosures

The US consumer showed notable resilience over the holiday period, with retail sales and e-commerce activity remaining robust. Yet, beneath the surface, sentiment surveys signal caution, as consumer confidence hovers near multi-year lows. Against this backdrop, the primary question is whether strong spending can persist as households navigate inflation fatigue, policy changes, and widening economic bifurcation.

In Episode 79 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and US Cosmetics, Household, Personal Care & Beverages Research Analyst Lauren Lieberman debate the split between hard spending data and soft sentiment indicators. They explore the rise of value-focused shopping, the expansion of Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) into essentials, and the outsized role of upper-income cohorts in driving aggregate demand.

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on US consumer strategy with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including:

1. 26 'What Ifs' for 2026
2. 2026 Outlook: Riding the Waves, but Still Far from Shore

The UK’s fiscal policy faced a pivotal moment as Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her second Autumn Budget, confronting market and political pressures. The budget builds fiscal headroom mainly through tax rises deferred until 2028, sparking debate over its credibility.

Markets responded favourably, with gilt yields steady and the FTSE 250 gaining ground since. Yet sentiment remains fragile amid ongoing political uncertainty.

In Episode 78 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and UK Chief Economist Jack Meaning debate the implications for markets, inflation and the UK’s economic future.

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on UK macro strategy with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including:

• Autumn Budget: Consolidate, but not yet
• The signal from the noise

Japan’s economic policy stands at a crossroads as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi takes office, with the legacy of Abenomics challenged by shifting market and political realities.

The yen has halved against the dollar since 2012, superlong Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields are at record highs, and demographic changes have reshaped demand for government bonds, setting the stage for a global debate on whether Japan’s new leadership can adapt its economic strategy to meet current challenges without causing instability at home or abroad.

In Episode 77 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and Head of Japan FX & Rates Strategy Shinichiro Kadota analyse the credibility of Japan’s fiscal ambitions, the fragility of JGB supply-demand, and consider the impact of persistent inflation on the Bank of Japan’s rate path.

Artificial intelligence has become the defining investment theme of the current market cycle, with capital expenditure on AI infrastructure reaching unprecedented levels. Hyperscalers have announced nearly $400 billion in capex for this year alone, and forecasts suggest annual increases of 30% in the years ahead. As investors weigh the promise of this transformative technology against the risks of overbuilding, the debate intensifies: will markets continue to run efficiently or are we repeating the excesses of past tech booms that led to busts?

In Episode 76 of The Flip Side podcast, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Venu Krishna, Head of US Equity Strategy, examine the forces behind the AI investment surge and consider the bull and bear cases that surge presents. They explore whether current spending is justified by demand, how power and infrastructure constraints could shape the outlook, and what lessons can be drawn from previous cycles of rapid tech expansion.

With AI capex now central to both equity valuations and broader economic growth, this episode unpacks the critical questions facing portfolio managers as they navigate one of the most consequential debates in today’s markets.

For deeper insight, clients can access related Barclays Research on Barclays Live:

Equity Strategy: Lost My Chain-of-Thought: Could the AI narrative stumble?

Food for Thought: Generative AI vs. cash generation

Episode 69 'Is there too much hype for AI and the hyperscalers?'

Important Content Disclosures

In June, US banking regulators, led by the Federal Reserve, proposed changes to the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR), a regulatory measure used to ensure financial stability by limiting excessive leverage.

Despite expectations that easing the SLR rules will unlock lending and liquidity in the US economy, concerns remain over potential risks to financial stability. While large US banks tend to maintain capital buffers well above regulatory minimums, critics believe the Fed’s proposal could shift capital away from the intended outcomes and toward shareholders or proprietary trading.

In Episode 75 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and US Large-Cap Bank Analyst Jason Goldberg debate whether the SLR changes will strengthen or strain the US banking system.

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on bank capital in several recent publications:

• Large-Cap Bank Capital Outlook: SCB improvement near-term, more meaningful changes looking out
• Fed issues proposal to reduce SLR minimum, the first of several capital changes expected
• SLR relief - Why we think it helps