The Flip Side

Around the globe, developed economies' government bond yields are climbing. In response, debt managers are reshaping how they borrow, shortening issuance and buying back longer-dated debt in an effort to reduce the duration investors must absorb. But can government debt managers truly influence long-term yields, or do markets ultimately have the final say?

In this episode of the Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research at Barclays, and Anshul Pradhan, Head of US Rates Research, debate whether bond supply is becoming a more powerful driver of markets as private investors absorb an ever-growing share of government debt.

Together they examine shifting supply, the changing long bond investor base and the growing issuance for long-duration capital from non-government sources. As debt managers rethink how they finance large deficits, the debate explores whether they can influence the price of duration, even if growth, inflation and policy expectations ultimately determine the direction of yields.

Listeners can learn more about this topic:

• Barclays Brief #48 - US Rates: Higher for longer

• The Flip Side #85: If the Fed goes quiet, do markets make more noise?

• Barclays Brief #44 - Japan: Why the world is watching

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read our latest reports by logging in to Barclays Live:

• The Treasury is watching

• On the brink

• The rise of price-sensitive investors

Important Content Disclosures

Post-crisis bank regulations were designed to create a safer financial system. Nearly two decades later, US regulators are revisiting the implementation of some of those rules, with the potential to create more capacity for growing financial markets - and perhaps affect the future of financial stability

On this month's Flip Side, Brad Rogoff welcomes Jeff Meli, former host of The Flip Side and current Clinical Professor of Finance at NYU Stern School of Business, to debate the implications of changes to the US implementation of the international banking capital framework. Supporters argue the changes could improve Treasury market liquidity, expand intermediation capacity and support bank profitability. Others question the motivation for the changes, and caution that further revisions could eventually force policymakers to make harder choices between financial stability and market capacity.

Together, they examine the trade-off between stability and capacity, and whether higher bank profitability translates into more market capacity, or simply greater shareholder returns at a time when investor capital is increasingly being drawn toward AI-related opportunities.

Listeners can learn more about this topic:

• Flip Side #75: US bank regulatory reform: Capital relief or systemic risk?
• Flip Side #73: Do the risks of NBFI lending outweigh the opportunities?
• Barclays Brief #32: Decoding the bond sell-off

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read our latest reports by logging in to Barclays Live:

• Banks Research: Capital Call

For over three decades, the US Federal Reserve has moved towards greater transparency, introducing new ways of communicating its outlook to markets. Weeks into his tenure, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is reversing that trend. He scrapped forward guidance and opted out of the dot plot, arguing that markets have become overly focused on interpreting Fed signals. ​

In this episode of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research, debate whether markets have become too reliant on central bank communication and what may happen without it. They explore the evolution of Fed transparency, the risk of market volatility if the Fed goes quiet, and whether investors may ultimately benefit from being forced to focus more closely on economic fundamentals.​

The discussion also considers the current macro backdrop and whether a period of inflation uncertainty, oil shocks and market repricing is the right moment for the Fed to take a different approach.​

Listeners can learn more about this topic:​

• Flip Side ep. 80: Is US equities exceptionalism finally cracking?​
• Barclays Brief ep.34: The Fed’s next move​

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read our latest reports by logging in to Barclays Live:​

• United States: Interest Rates: Returning to the old normal​
• Macrocast - US in Focus: Warshspeak​

Important Content Disclosures​

There are two sides to every story, including in markets. On The Flip Side podcast, two Barclays Research analysts offer perspectives from different angles as they debate the economic and market themes that matter most to investors and business leaders.

Each month this award-winning podcast will inform your view through contrasting positions, revealing the nuances that emerge when ideas are tested, challenged and pushed further.

Through this debate, our analysts surface the dynamics that may be missed in headline‑driven narratives. The result? A clearer, more rounded understanding of what’s really moving markets that helps you make more informed decisions.

Find out more

Important Content Disclosures

Artificial intelligence is moving off the screen and into the real economy. For investors, that shifts the focus from software productivity to how labour, capital and markets themselves could be repriced.

With machines, such as humanoid robots, increasingly taking on physical tasks, from driving and cleaning to providing healthcare, the question isn’t just how much productivity improves. It’s who benefits, how quickly economies adjust, and what gets disrupted along the way.

In Episode 84 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and Head of FX & EM Macro Strategy Themos Fiotakis dig into that tension. On the one hand, history suggests that major technological shifts ultimately create wealth, expand output and spawn new industries. On the other, those transitions can be slow, uneven, and politically and economically destabilising, especially if labour displacement outpaces the ability of economies to adjust.

The conversation moves from theory to markets. What does stronger productivity mean for equity returns? Could capital-intensive AI investment push up yields and debt issuance? And if adoption is uneven, which currencies benefit first?

What emerges is a familiar “flip side” dynamic: the long-term story may be compelling, but the path to get there could be far more volatile than expected.

Clients of the Investment Bank can read further analysis of these themes in ‘Embodied AI: Wealth creation or economic displacement?’ on Barclays Live.

Gasoline prices in the United States have risen to over $4 per gallon since the Iran war began in February. When combined with higher car prices, higher interest rates and rising auto loan delinquencies – not to mention other affordability concerns consumers face – might consumers change their car buying preferences?​

In this episode of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Dan Levy, US Autos and Mobility Equity Research Analyst, debate whether higher fuel costs are the straw that breaks the camel's back, or if strong vehicle preferences and a more concentrated set of affluent buyers are enough to hold current dynamics. ​

They also discuss whether fuel costs could be a catalyst for electric vehicle (EV) adoption, and if technology improvements could make autonomous ride hailing a credible alternative to car ownership in the future. ​

Listeners can learn more about this topic:​

• Flip Side ep.79: Will the US consumer hold up in 2026? ​
• Barclays Brief ep.12: Robotaxis: The future of mobility​

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read our latest reports by logging in to Barclays Live:​

• Gauging the impact on autos from higher oil prices - questions on mix, inflation ​
• EV Report Card: A closer look at the Chinese EV mix shift

Since 2022, AI capital investment has skyrocketed. But can AI capex reach $1 trillion by 2028, as our Equity Research analysts forecast? Labs are reporting rapid growth, and signs show AI demand spreading beyond the hyperscalers to sovereigns and non-tech enterprises. Yet practical barriers such as power supply, infrastructure timelines and the need for clear ROI could but the brakes on capex.

In episode 82 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Tom O'Malley, Equity Research Analyst for US Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment, debate whether today’s rapid AI adoption is enough to justify that level of capex or if real-world constraints will force expectations lower.

Listeners can learn more about this topic:

• Barclays Brief Ep 25: The cusp of a capex super cycle
• AI gets physical: Innovation meets opportunity

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read our latest reports by logging in to Barclays Live:

• Framework for Modeling AI Demand & Supply – Capex 'Peak' Likely in 2028
• Powering AI: Gas Turbines Could Make or Break AI Ambitions

Important Content Disclosures

Private credit has been a powerful growth engine for alternative asset managers, with business development corporations (BDCs) playing a central role. As AI adoption accelerates and software business models come under pressure, investors are concerned with how exposed these managers are to software and other tech-enabled business models that could be disrupted. In recent weeks, investors have sold down their positions, sending some alternative asset managers’ stock prices down roughly 25%. But is that selloff rational or not?

In episode 81 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, our Global Head of Research, is joined by Ben Budish, our Equity Research Analyst who covers US Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges, to debate whether the recent selloff was justified. They discuss why AI disruption has become a focal point for markets, how valuation frameworks for alternative managers amplify volatility, and where risks may be overstated versus structurally real. The conversation also explores what this means for future growth across private credit, private equity and insurance channels, and where differentiation may emerge after an indiscriminate selloff.

Listeners can hear more on this topic on our sister podcast, Barclays Brief:

1. Software: In the AI storm

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on our view on equities with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including:

1. Barclays HY Software Agentic AI Disruption Risk in Focus
2. Software Is Not Dead, Just Changing
3. Widespread Exposure to Software Creates Uncertainty

Important Content Disclosures

After more than a decade of US equity dominance, international markets made a rare comeback in 2025. Europe, Japan, Emerging Markets and the UK outperformed, the majority of global equity flows went outside the US, and investors began to revisit long‑standing assumptions around US equities exceptionalism.

Was this simply a cyclical reset after years of US outperformance, or the start of a more durable shift in global equity allocation?

In this episode of The Flip Side, our Global Head of Research, Brad Rogoff, is joined by our Head of European Equity Strategy, Emmanuel Cau, to debate what drove last year’s rotation, whether it has further room to run, and how investors should think about diversification in 2026.

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on our view on equities with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including:

1. Chaotic, but resilient – February Chart Pack
2. Buy/Sell American

Important content disclosures

The US consumer showed notable resilience over the holiday period, with retail sales and e-commerce activity remaining robust. Yet, beneath the surface, sentiment surveys signal caution, as consumer confidence hovers near multi-year lows. Against this backdrop, the primary question is whether strong spending can persist as households navigate inflation fatigue, policy changes, and widening economic bifurcation.

In Episode 79 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and US Cosmetics, Household, Personal Care & Beverages Research Analyst Lauren Lieberman debate the split between hard spending data and soft sentiment indicators. They explore the rise of value-focused shopping, the expansion of Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) into essentials, and the outsized role of upper-income cohorts in driving aggregate demand.

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on US consumer strategy with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including:

1. 26 'What Ifs' for 2026
2. 2026 Outlook: Riding the Waves, but Still Far from Shore