Macro Waves

In this series of three podcasts "Focus on Labour Productivity in Spain" Hélène Baudchon, Deputy Chief Economist and Head of the OECD team, BNP Paribas Economics Department and Guillaume Derrien, Senior Economist in the same team, discuss productivity as an endemic weakness of the Spanish model. This first episode reviews the main trends in the evolution of productivity in Spain compared to its European neighbours over the last 25 years.

Economic Research Website

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In this new AudioBrief, Guillaume Derrien, economist within the OECD team, discusses the close relationship between global growth and the evolution of international trade.

Economic Research's website, BNP Paribas

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Is stagflation back? In this series of podcasts, William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist of BNP Paribas, discusses the issue of stagflation, a term that has been increasingly used in the media in recent months. Stagflation, a multi-year phenomenon combining rising unemployment and high inflation, brings us back to the dark days of the 1970s and 1980s, when inflation levels were unprecedented and mass unemployment began.

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The convergence of several factors of tension – the health crisis, the war in Ukraine, the tensions in supply chains – is leading us to speak more and more of stagflation. The term is a contraction of "stag" for stagnation in economic activity and "flation" for inflation. William De Vijlder, Chief economist of BNP Paribas, offers a two-part podcasts series on this worrying phenomenon.

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In this final episode, William De Vijlder analyses the responses of European governments to
the crisis generated by the pandemic. How to stimulate and maintain economic growth
whilst at the same time developing an environmental policy that meets the challenges of
climate change? The “Next Generation EU” plan recently launched by the European
Commission is discussed from this viewpoint.

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In the second episode, François Doux and William De Vijlder discuss the profound social
changes that the pandemic has brought about. The virus has put health at the centre of
people’s worlds, and stimulated new interest in environmental issues. William De Vijlder
explains why these changes in behaviour and mindset could prove to be long-lasting.

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In the first episode of this series of podcasts, William De Vijlder and François Doux will look
at the concept of externalities to consider how lockdowns, by limiting human and economic
activity considerably, have affected the environment. They also examine the notion of
“green swan” risks; climate-related risks that could threaten the economy.

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In the final episode, William De Vijlder turns to the psychological factors in play when it comes to inflation. We will see that inflation, perceived inflation and expected inflation are three very different notions. William also looks at relative prices and absolute prices and discusses how the Covid-19 pandemic has affected prices and the nature of demand. Lastly, he will look at the possible impact of the pandemic on the strategy of central banks in terms of monetary policy over the coming years.

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In this second episode, William De Vijlder turns to the real economy and examines the factors that could produce inflation. He draws the distinction between headline inflation and core inflation. Could core inflation, which is affected by tensions in the labour market and the markets for goods and services but also by inflation expectations, see an acceleration under current circumstances? William De Vijlder also looks at the supply side shock and the disruption of global value chains as a result of the pandemic. We will see how changes to these value chains could produce inflation.

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In the first episode, William De Vijlder emphasizes that the risk of an increase in inflation is high on the list of frequently asked questions by clients. To tackle the negative effects of the pandemic on the economy, central banks have relaxed their monetary policies and increased the size of their balance sheets by making massive injections of liquidity into the system. For Monetarists (followers of the Chicago School, founded by Milton Friedman), this increase in money supply is the root cause of inflation. Will this theory be borne out in the current economic context?

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