Macro Waves

In an environment of extremely low interest rates, central banks' room for manoeuvre to boost growth in the event of a recession is limited. So what monetary policy should be pursued today? William De Vijlder discusses the question of changing the objective of targeting inflation in monetary policies. Interview conducted with François Doux.

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This second episode analyses the role of inflation targeting in the big disinflation of the 90s, the implications for growth, volatility of growth and inflation, real interest rates and inflation expectations. It also discusses the different perspectives on inflation targeting before and after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Interview conducted with François Doux.

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In this first episode, William De Vijlder discusses why low and stable inflation is important and how this led, about 30 years ago, in New Zealand, to introduce a monetary policy based on inflation targeting. He also discusses how this approach has been adopted by an increasing number of central banks. Interview conducted with François Doux.

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Climate change and inclusive growth are closely linked. Low income households will tend to suffer more from the negative economic consequences of global warming. Policy measures to reduce carbon emissions may also have a relatively speaking bigger impact on low income households. These topics are discussed by William De Vijlder in the final podcast of this series. Interview conducted with François Doux.

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Addressing inequalities is one of the core challenges for inclusive growth. This episode discusses why, within a given country, inclusive growth is key in tackling inequality and what can be done about it in terms of policy. Interview conducted with François Doux.

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In this new series, William De Vijlder promotes the idea that growth can only be sustainable if it is inclusive. Indeed, poverty reduction on a lasting basis requires inclusive growth that allows people to contribute to and benefit from economic growth. In this first episode, we find out that inclusive growth refers both to the pace and pattern of growth, which are significantly interlinked. Interview conducted with François Doux.

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The psychology of a recession, Episode 3 - The stylised facts of a recession (considerable drop in equity prices, widening of the spread between corporate and government bonds) imply that during a slowdown, investors will focus their attention on the likelihood of entering a recession. The sensitivity to bad news increases, the investment horizon shortens and volatility rises, with a detrimental impact on growth.

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The psychology of a recession, Episode 2 - Slower growth will raise the concern of households that unemployment will increase. Greater caution means less spending. Companies will scale back investments because they represent a long horizon commitment which moreover is irreversible. Banks will also become more cautious in extending credit, being concerned that the balance sheet quality of customer will suffer from a period of negative growth.

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The psychology of a recession, Episode 1 - A significant growth slowdown triggers anxiety that worse is to come. Households and companies hate uncertainty, confidence drops and a negative spiral develops. Although central banks may adopt a more dovish tone, the minds will still be dominated by a feeling that growth is missing.

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Third and last episode of the series dedicated to Globalization. In past episodes its limits were mentionned, but what's new for the future of globalization? William De Vijlder discusses three levels of globalization sustainability: inclusion, environment, financial stability – major challenges for economic policy. Interview conducted with François Doux.

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