Market Maker

After a week off the desk, it's great to be back with co-founder and head of trading Piers Curran to discuss what's been happening in markets this week.

We take a deep-dive into the latest news on Russia, where ongoing fighting has resulted in the biggest weekly increase in commodity prices since the 1973 oil crisis.

The impact has been severe. The Dow Jones Russia GDR Index, which tracks London-traded Russian companies, has plunged 98% in just two weeks and overnight the Russian sovereign rating was cut to 'junk' by Moody's and Fitch. We explain what this means and how it impacts different types of fund managers.

The buzz word right now is 'stagflation'. We look at what is the probability of a recession given the surge in oil prices and the latest comments from Fed Chair Powell who said the central bank will “proceed carefully,” emphasising the “need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook.”

Final word is reversed for social media app TikTok after eight US states, including California and Massachusetts, announced that they had launched a bipartisan, nationwide probe, focusing on whether the app causes physical or mental health harm to young people. Are they acting in good faith or is this purely political optics ahead of the US midterms?

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In this episode, I speak to Bilal Hafeez who is the founder and CEO of Macro Hive. Before starting his own research firm in 2019, Bilal was the Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank.

Although Bilal has had phenomenal success in his career to date there have been many experiences and challenges that have shaped that journey. Coming from a working-class background in Oxford and not having any friends or family working in the professional world, it was not always clear on which direction to go in.

During his time at university, he was rejected in all his accounting and consultancy applications but was successful in banking where he landed his first role at J.P. Morgan. However, after a short stint in the investment banking division he then rotated into global markets - the rest is history!

In this conversation, Bilal explains the difference between working on both sides of the bank and gives an (often hard to find!) insight into his role in research. He explains why his mentor was so influential on his career, how his role changed as he became more senior, and gives invaluable advice on how to consume information and develop your personal skills by maintaining a constant curiosity about all that you do.

Bilal talks openly and honestly about life inside a bank but also the challenges it brings to your personal life. 

This is a must listen to episode for any student considering a role in banking.

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In this week’s episode, I am joined for the first time ever by Amplify Co-Founder Will de Lucy to talk about this week’s global market volatility as well as some insights into how to become a successful founder.

We chat about:

How it is possible for the NASDAQ to rally 5% into the US close yesterday despite Russia invading Ukraine.

Reasons behind why Oil rallied 7.5% and then reversed the entire move. Why Gold spike to a multiyear high and then reversed back to below levels trading before the invasion.

How to manage risk in such extreme market volatility.

Trump’s launch of his new TRUTH – Media and Tech group and SEC open an investigation on Elon Musk and whether his brother has been insider trading.

Finally, our experiences of being founders and trying to grow a business with examples of the hard lessons we learnt along the way.

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The career insight series is back and this time I am joined by Ayman Rahman, the CEO & founder of energy tech trading firm DARE.

Our connection with Ayman goes back over 10 years when as a student at UCL he spent time training with Amplify learning the ropes in our prop trading division. Upon graduation, Ayman obtained a trading analyst position at a commodity derivatives trading firm and within less than two years his performance saw him quickly rise through the ranks to become the head of fuel oil trading.

Fast forward to the summer of 2016, Ayman decided to break out on his own and founded DARE, an energy tech company using the power of data science, analytics, and trading expertise to help the world reach a renewable future, faster. Today his company and mission continue to go from strength to strength.

In this conversation, recorded in the summer of 2020, Ayman shares his top five tips for success for any student looking to break into finance and obtain a role in trading. From demonstrating passion, networking, and having stamina, to learning how to admit what you don't know and the importance of going somewhere you can have an impact.

I hope you enjoy the conversation, but more importantly, be left feeling inspired and motivated to make the future your own.

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In this week's episode, I am joined by Eddie Donmez to talk about all the trending topics in markets this week.

We discuss the YTD performance for US stocks and look at what the sector performance in the S&P 500 tells us about current economic conditions and the market's confidence in the Fed being able to manage the pressure of surging inflation. 

An update on the latest news concerning Russia-Ukraine as the US President speaks with transatlantic leaders about the Russian troop buildup. 

Joe Biden has remained stern in his belief of an imminent attack all week despite increased signs of Russian diplomacy. We discuss why the US administration is taking this stance and ask the question of what really is the probability of Russia invading Ukraine?

Also discussed in the episode is news J.P. Morgan has become the first bank to enter the metaverse having opened a lounge in blockchain-based Decentraland. We look at the stats to break down the hype vs reality.

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Really exciting news to announce this week, as US investment bank Morgan Stanley is now the official global sponsor of our AmplifyME Finance Accelerator.

It's been amazing to see the impact the initiative has had since launching in September and with the help of Morgan Stanley, we can now reach more individuals than ever.

I encourage anyone who has not yet taken part in the simulation to give it a go. It's open to all students from college to post-grad and you don't have to come from an economics background. The registration link can be found below.

In this episode, the main debate is on the timing of US rate hikes after US inflation hit 7.5% in January, the highest reading since 1982. Is the market right to expect a 50bps hike in March or is this just irrational exuberance.

We also touch on news that Peloton CEO John Foley is to be replaced, what next for SoftBank following the collapse of their $66bn sale of UK-based chip business Arm to Nvidia, and discuss whether Facebook's lowest ever P/E ratio means anything for investors who may be looking to buy on the cheap.

The final talking point goes to Joe Biden. The US President has upped the ante on Russia and China but why? and what does this mean for his relationship with Europe? We look at the rationale and the implications.

Register for the next Finance Accelerator at https://bit.ly/3rKyVoO

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In this episode, Piers and I delve into some of the important new stories this week from mega-cap tech earnings to central bank decisions and even a quick word on the incredible Rafael Nadal!

First up for debate is Meta (Facebook) whose shares collapsed following their latest earnings report. The reaction was compounded by a number of factors, not just the top-line figures. We discuss user figures, platform, regulatory threats, expenses, increasing competition, and what the future holds for the once-dominant social network company.

Alphabet (Google) and Amazon also released their latest numbers this week which were met with a much more favourable reaction on Wall Street. We explain the mechanics and rationale behind Google's 20-for-1 stock split and question whether Amazon's initial positive reaction is the correct one.

Finally, we talk about the Bank of England, which executed its first back-to-back increase in interest rates since 2004. More importantly, we examine the breakdown of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) where four members actually opted for a more aggressive 50bps increase to the base rate. What were they thinking, why are they worried and what does this mean for the UK consumer and the broader marketplace.

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The Masterclass speaker series is back by popular demand, aiming to help students get the real truth behind different careers in finance. 

To mark the occasion I hosted an incredible guest, Alfonso Peccatiello.

Alf is the author of The Macro Compass and was previously the Head of Investment Portfolio for the Treasury department of ING Germany. There, he was in charge of the active management of a $20bn multi-asset portfolio.

In the session, Alf talks about how he first got interested in finance, how what he learned at university was useful in shaping his view on markets, and the realities of working as a portfolio manager in a large financial institution.

More than this, Alf gives a personal and honest account of his greatest strengths and weaknesses and offers practical advice on how to communicate better, remain humble, and always strive to move forward by being passionate about what you do.

Alf's book recommendations:

Central Banking 101: https://amzn.to/3u2iHc7

Pragmatic Capitalism: https://amzn.to/34a5mU7

Balance Sheet Recession: https://amzn.to/3IHjcw7

The Holy Grail Of Macro Economics: https://amzn.to/3IC2oGS

The New Economics: https://amzn.to/33WMYyn

Sign up to Alf's Macro Compass newsletter https://themacrocompass.substack.com/

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In this episode, I talk to co-founder Piers Curran about the latest FOMC meeting where Fed Chair Jerome Powell backed a March liftoff and said would not rule out a hike at every meeting.

Markets are now pricing in the probability of 5 rate hikes this year and even the prospect of a rate 50bps move at the March meeting, but is this expectation right, or will the Fed change tactics once more?

We also look at the latest earnings from the likes of Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple, while also discussing the performance of Deutsche Bank which has just closed out its most profitable year in a decade. How did they achieve this and why is the German bank an important financial institution in a global context.

Finally, we talk about the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine after weeks of intense diplomacy over a buildup of more than 100,000 Russian troops on Ukraine’s border. What are the geopolitical risks and find out why wheat and palladium may well be the best barometer of judging sentiment over the situation.

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The episode covers a quickfire round-up of the main news this week, from Biden's comments on Russia to Brent crude oil hitting a fresh 7-year high, before taking a deep dive in the race to the Metaverse following Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard. 

We explore the rationale behind the huge amount of cash being spent by big tech firms to position for the future and ask the question of whether their strategy will stifle innovation and increase regulatory threats. 

Next in the dock is Netflix, whose shares dropped 20% after their earnings this week. We look at why this happened and how their management team will try to offset slowing subscribers numbers in the short term as well as a brief conversation on Peloton whose shares collapsed on Thursday night after a report of a temporary production halt of its bikes and treadmills as demand wanes.

To mark the 50th episode, we were also joined by the amazing Nii-akwei Carty Bing Pappoe at the start of the show, a student at Nottingham University studying Philosophy, Politics, and Economics, who won our competition to win his slot on the pod!

Please show him some love and connect with him on LinkedIn! https://www.linkedin.com/in/nii-akwei-carty-bing-pappoe-a7a412193/

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