Market Maker

In this week’s Market Maker Podcast, we break down Bill Ackman’s high-stakes bid for Universal Music Group, the entertainment giant behind global superstars like Taylor Swift, Sabrina Carpenter and Kendrick Lamar. With the takeover offer estimated at $64.3bn, we unpack the M&A strategy underpinning the deal and why Pershing Square believes a US relisting could unlock significant value.

From listing arbitrage to capital structure optimisation, we explore how shifting UMG’s listing from Europe to the US could drive a meaningful valuation re-rating. We dive into the mechanics of the transaction, including free float dynamics, liquidity constraints, and why Ackman has strategically reduced his own stake to help enable the relisting.

We also compare this approach to other major listing migrations and examine how differences in market structure, investor base, and risk appetite can materially impact pricing. To round things out, we briefly touch on the evolving industry backdrop, including the rise of AI-generated music and what it could mean for the long-term positioning of music rights businesses.

A focused episode on modern dealmaking strategy and how financial engineering and market structure can be powerful levers for value creation.

(00:00) Intel Deal Breakdown

(05:36) Energy & AI Deals

(06:40) $64B UMG Bid

(07:38) Listing Arbitrage Explained

(10:25) Ackman’s Strategy

(15:06) Free Float & Liquidity

(17:33) Music Industry & AI

*****

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Markets are rallying on ceasefire headlines but the risks haven’t disappeared.

In this episode, we break down why equities are surging while bonds, oil, and macro signals tell a very different story. From inflation expectations to disrupted oil flows and fragile negotiations, the so-called “ceasefire bounce” may not be as solid as it looks.

With earnings season approaching and geopolitical tensions still high, the key question is: are markets getting ahead of reality?

In this episode of the Market Maker Podcast, we review Q1 investment banking league tables and the rebound in global M&A activity.

We discuss the key drivers behind deal flow, including interest rates, financing conditions, and geopolitical risk, and consider how the outlook may evolve into Q2. We also analyse the potential SMFG–Jefferies transaction, focusing on strategic rationale, regulatory constraints, and execution challenges.

The episode covers the latest developments around the potential SpaceX IPO, including valuation expectations and syndicate structure, before turning to Whoop’s $575 million funding round and $10 billion valuation. We explore what this signals about private market dynamics, subscription-based business models, and future IPO positioning.

(00:00) Q1 M&A & League Tables

(05:07) Deal Flow Outlook

(07:30) SpaceX IPO Structure

(13:43) SMFG–Jefferies Deal

(19:17) Deal Risks & Constraints

(23:12) Whoop $10B Funding

(33:05) Subscription Model Risks

*****

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In this episode of the Market Maker Podcast, we break down the recent surge in oil prices, rising stagflation risks, and the impact on global financial markets.

With crude trading in a key $100-$120 range, we explore what’s driving volatility, how different economies are exposed to the energy shock, and why investors are shifting towards defensive sectors. We also examine the relative outperformance of the FTSE 100 and discuss what stagflation means in practice for growth, inflation, and market behaviour.

This episode provides a clear, educational overview of the macro forces currently shaping markets.

(00:00) Oil Volatility and Market Conditions

(05:55) The Impact of News Flow on Prices

(09:44) Sector Performance: Winners and Losers

(14:47) Global Energy Dependency and Risk

(27:12) FTSE 100 Outperformance Explained

(30:52) Understanding Stagflation

*****

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In this episode of the Market Maker Podcast, we break down the surge in oil prices, the growing risk of $200 oil, and the controversy around large trades placed just minutes before a Trump headline hit the market. Is this insider trading, smart positioning, or algorithmic momentum?

We explore how markets react to political signals, why oil is so sensitive to geopolitical risk, and what could actually drive prices higher. We also take a deeper look at why both stocks and bonds are falling at the same time, and what that means for traditional portfolio strategies like the 60/40 model.

If you want to understand how markets really move and how professionals navigate chaos this episode is for you.

(00:00) Market Overview

(05:02) Stocks & Bonds

(09:22) Portfolio Risk

(16:00) $200 Oil?

(19:36) Demand Limits

(24:30) Trump & Markets

(26:14) Strait of Hormuz

(35:24) Front-Running Trump?

(46:55) Final Thoughts

This week on the Market Maker Podcast, we break down a $27 billion AI deal between Meta and Nebius and what it reveals about the global race for compute power. We also dive into Unicredit’s $28 billion move on Commerzbank and why it’s become one of Europe’s most political banking battles.

Plus, we cover the biggest deals of the week across wealth management, asset management, and defense, and explain what they tell us about where markets are heading next.

(00:00) Intro

(00:47) M&A Deals of the Week

(07:49) Meta Nebius AI Deal

(14:28) Unicredit Commerzbank Takeover

*****

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The market got it wrong.

After months of expecting easier policy, central banks have just delivered a major reality check. The Federal Reserve is no longer forecasting cuts, the Bank of England is turning more hawkish, and the European Central Bank could move sooner than anyone expected.

Behind it all is a new inflation threat building beneath the surface. Energy prices are rising fast, and if they stay elevated, the consequences could ripple through food, wages, and the broader economy.

This episode breaks down the chain reaction now unfolding across global markets, why bond yields are surging, and how a temporary shock could become something much more persistent.

The big question is no longer when rates will fall but whether they’re about to rise again.

(00:00) Rate Cuts Shock

(02:14) Fed Turns Hawkish

(08:30) Iran, Oil & Inflation

(15:46) Market Reaction

(19:59) Gold Drop Explained

(26:13) Bank of England Shift

(30:00) UK Energy Risk

(37:06) ECB Pivot

(38:27) Inflation Feedback Loop

(43:50) Iran Impact on Food & Energy

*****

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In this week’s Market Maker Podcast M&A episode, we break down the biggest deals moving markets right now. We start with Axel Springer’s $770 million acquisition of the Daily Telegraph, the proposed Airbus–Leonardo–Thales space merger aimed at competing with SpaceX, and the latest developments in the Monte dei Paschi–Mediobanca deal. We also discuss a new take-private bid for Papa John’s and a recent investment into AmplifyME.

We then dive into the rapid rise of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms allow users to trade contracts on real-world outcomes—from crypto prices and politics to economic events. With valuations potentially approaching $20 billion, we explore how prediction markets work, why hedge funds are beginning to exploit arbitrage opportunities, and whether this could evolve into a new financial market infrastructure or remain a controversial betting niche.

Chapters

(00:00) Introduction

(01:18) Axel Springer Buys the Telegraph

(05:11) European Space Merger vs SpaceX

(06:52) Monte dei Paschi–Mediobanca Deal

(07:24) Papa John’s Take-Private Bid

(10:27) AmplifyME Investment Explained

(13:33) What Are Prediction Markets?

(20:06) Prediction Market Size

(22:52) Who Built Polymarket & Kalshi?

(29:02) Hedge Funds Enter Prediction Markets

(32:49) Market Manipulation Risks

(38:42) Regulation & Legal Risks

(41:51) The Bull Case for Prediction Markets

(42:43) The Bear Case for Prediction Markets

(46:01) Final Thoughts

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In this episode of the Market Maker Podcast, we break down a rare six-sigma oil market shock - a move so extreme it statistically should happen only once every four million years.

Crude oil surged from around $70 to $120 during geopolitical tensions before rapidly reversing, catching some of the world’s largest hedge funds off guard.

We discuss what drove the volatility, why hedge funds lost billions, and how oil prices feed directly into inflation, interest rates, and global macro markets.

(00:00) Introduction

(01:20) The Oil Price Shock Explained

(05:23) The “Six Sigma” Market Move

(07:20) The Realities of Trading Commodities

(09:18) How Trade is Impacted by War

(14:24) The New Iranian Supreme Leader

(16:45) Strategic Oil Reserves & Market Impact

(29:10) Oil, Inflation & Interest Rates

(32:29) Hedge Funds Feel the Pain

This week on the Market Maker Podcast we break down the biggest M&A deals, private equity moves and activist investor plays shaping global markets.

From a $6.2 billion African telecom infrastructure deal to a $33 billion private equity bet on the energy powering AI data centres, Anthony Cheung and Piers Curran break down the biggest deal stories shaping markets this week.

They also dive into Elliott Management’s role in a $40 billion Toyota Industries takeover, a $1 billion activist play at Pinterest, and the dramatic conclusion to the Warner Brothers bidding war as Paramount outmanoeuvres Netflix.

Essential listening for anyone curious about the strategy behind mega M&A, activist investing, and how infrastructure, AI, and media are colliding in today’s global dealmaking landscape.

(00:00) Intro

(02:24) MTN & IHS Towers Deal

(11:04) Elliott and Toyota Industries

(18:51) Private Equity’s $33bn Energy Bet

(27:35) Investment Banking Scorecard YTD

(31:02) Elliott’s $1bn Pinterest Play

(36:24) Paramount vs Netflix Bidding War