Market Updates

Wall Street oversaw a mixed, flat and choppy session as the Fed kept rates the same, as expected. Markets still expect two rate cuts this year but now only expect one in 2026 and a further cut in 2027 after Powell made clear the importance of waiting and seeing the effects of tariffs on inflation. S&P 500 flat, Nasdaq up 0.13%. Dow rose at open, fell a little throughout the day, and dropped after Powell’s comments. Ended near low, down 44 points. Mixed sector performance. Financials best performer, Wells Fargo leading the charge with a gain of 3.1% without major news. Utilities and REITS also up despite yields remaining rather unchanged, while defensives such as Staples got a minor boost from stable yields.

Energy worst performer, shedding some of its gains from the last three sessions. Materials, Industrials, Tech all gave up 0.3%, but no major movements. No significant company news. Microsoft (+0.5%) is prepared to abandon its negotiations with OpenAI as tensions rise between the two companies. Yesterday, we noted OpenAI was considering accusing Microsoft of monopolistic practices within their agreement. Intel (+3.3%) appointed three chip industry executives to its engineering and networking department.

Resources mixed. Oil steady after recent double digit jumps following Israel-Iran conflict. Copper and iron ore down while nickel, zinc and lead all found strength.

ASX to fall. SPI futures down 31 points (-0.36%).

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The ASX 200 has finished the day near unchanged. Down 10 points as the market stays on hold ahead of more news in the Middle East and tonight’s Fed meeting. No late rescue for iron ore stocks or gold. Stayed worst sectors. BHP and RIO down 1%. FMG worst in the top 100. -4%. EVN and NST down 3.6% and 2% despite bullion staying flat overnight and during our session. Oil price also flat all day which took the interest out of WDS and STO. Rare earths took a break. LYC no change.

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Wall Street recorded a night of losses as the US moved fighter jets to the Middle East and Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender”. US retail sales data also came in lower than expected, dropping 0.9% against a forecasted rise of 0.1-0.2%. S&P 500 fell 0.84%, Nasdaq down 0.91%. Dow dropped at open, recovered by midday, but fell throughout the rest of the session. Ended near low, down 299 points. Nearly all sectors in the red. Energy the exception, followed oil up which rose on escalation of US involvement in Israel-Iran conflict.  

ASX to fall. SPI futures down 20 points (-0.23%). Oil up - Gold flat - No corporate news so far

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The ASX 200 dropped 7 points to 8541 (0.2%) as nerves crept back in on Iran/Israel issues. Trump flew back to Washington to handle the situation. G-7 now G-6. Banks slipped slightly, CBA down 0.2% and ANZ off 0.5%. The BIg Bank Basket down to $280.41(-0.2%). MQG slid 0.4% with REITs also lower except GMG up 1.1% and other financials mixed too. Industrials pretty much lower across the board, drifting rather than sold off, TCL off 0.8%, REA down 0.5% and TLS falling 0.2%. Retailers mixed, as were travel stocks. Tech wafting around too with the All-Tech Index up 0.2%. In resources, uranium and rare earths stocks back in the spotlight or should it be SPUT light, DYL up 5.7% and LOT up 11.4% with physical buying of spot and short covering still dominating. Gold miners recovered some of the losses yesterday on the Iranian uncertainty as bullion rose, NEM up 2.5% and NST recovered 1.5% after the UBS inspired sell off. Iron ore majors eased back as iron ore fell in Singapore trade again. Oil and gas stocks weakened slightly, STO up 0.5%. 

In corporate news, it was quiet, too quiet. Asian markets drifted around, Japan up 0.5%. HK off 0.5% and China unchanged.10-year yields steady at  4.25%.

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Wall Street recovered from Friday losses and then some as Israel-Iran’s feud left crude production and exports unaffected while hopes of a truce between the countries increased. S&P 500 up 0.94%, NASDAQ up 1.5%. Dow finished middle of the range, up 317 points. Most sectors up. Tech, Cyclicals and Financials best performers as risk-on sentiment reignited and the outlook for the global economy improved. Meta led the gains from the major players, up 2.9%. Announced WhatsApp is getting ads and a collaboration with Oakley for new smart glasses. Amazon and Nvidia also strong, up 1.9%.

ASX to rise. SPI futures up 11 points (+0.13%). Gold and oil fall - Uranium soars on physical buying.

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Wall Street dropped sharply as Iran launched missiles at Israel, responding to Israeli strikes aimed at reducing Iran’s nuclear capabilities, sending oil up 7%. S&P 500 down 1.13%, down 0.39% for the week. NASDAQ down 1.3%, down 0.63%. Dow dropped at the open, steadily recovered, but fell again from midday onwards. Finished near low, down 770 points, down 565 points for the week. All sectors red except for energy which followed oil up. Financials worst performer, with Visa (-5.0%) and Mastercard (-4.6%) dragging sector down after reports that major retailers are considering cryptocurrencies to avoid the need for payment intermediaries. Tech was second worst. Apple (-1.4%), Meta (-1.5%) and Nvidia (-2.1%) weighed on sector as risk-on sentiment was reversed. Oracle (+7.7%) continued to rise following Wednesday’s after-market close earnings call beat expectations on the strength of demand for its AI services.

SPI down 20 - Oil and Gold up - STO gets a $30bn from Abu Dhabi - FIRB will be a big issue.

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The ASX 200 started strong but as news of the Israeli attack came through, we turned negative. The index fell 18 points to 8547 (0.2%) for a gain of only 31 points this shortened week. Performing much better than the US which had futures off between 1.5-1.8%. Stand-out sectors were not unexpectedly gold miners and oil and gas stocks. Crude and bullion jumping on the Iranian news. NST up 5.1% and EVN rising 5.5% with BGL up 4.3%. Resources generally were flat, BHP down 2.6% with FMG slightly firmer. MIN took a breather and PLS rose 0.4%. LYC rallied 3.8% on rare earth promise, WDS showed a clean pair of heels up 7.4% with STO up 3.7% and KAR the real star up 10.9%. Uranium stocks fell on attack news. Industrials slid, banks off slightly, CBA down 0.7% with the Big Bank Basket down to $281.21 (-0.5%). Other financials slipped, GQG down 1.4% and XYZ down 2.4%. Insurers gained a little, REITs fell, GMG bucked the trend up 0.2%. Tech stocks fell in sympathy with Nasdaq futures. XRO down 0.4% and WTC falling 2,4% with the index down 1.7%. Retail stocks dropped 24.7% on AX1 earnings warning, JBH fell 1.8% and travel stocks down, QAN off 4.9%. In corporate news, Brookfield sold a large parcel of its DBI holding, the stock falling 6.2%. Nothing on the economic front. 

Asian markets down on war worries. Japan down 0.9%, HK off 0.7% and China down 0.6%.

10-year yields falling to 4.16%.

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Wall Street up overnight. A strong outlook by Oracle refuelled AI optimism, countering the negativity weighing on the indices by tensions in the Middle East and a sharp drop in Boeing shares. S&P 500 up 0.38%, NASDAQ up 0.24%. Dow dropped at the open but recovered steadily throughout the day to end three points off the high. Finished up 102 points. Most sectors positive. Cyclicals and Industrials the exceptions, the former dragged down by Tesla (-2.2%), as rival BYD launched cheapest UK model, vying for dominance in another of Tesla’s regions. Utilities up over 1%, benefitting from bond yields easing, while REITS was up over 0.5%. Healthcare and Materials also demonstrated strength.

ASX to rise. SPI futures up 48 points (+0.56%). DBI sell down - Gold up - NEM up 4.9%

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The ASX 200 gave up strong early gains closing down 27 at 8565 (0.3%). US futures and lack of detail weighing on sentiment as Asian markets generally weaker. Banks slid slightly, CBA down 0.5% with NAB down 0.2% and the Big Bank Basket down to $262.66 (-0.5%). MQG whacked 1.6% with insurers also under pressure. REITs mixed, GMG off 1.2%. Industrials generally lower, ALL off 1.6% with retail down, led by SUL off 1.6% and BAP falling 2.7%. Travel stocks also under pressure, CTD down 3.1% and WEB off 2.8%. Fast food falling, DMP down 4.9%. REA fell 1.1% and TWE down 1.3% with TLS up 1.0% as defensives back in focus. In resources, gold miners back in demand, GMD up 6.0% and NEM up 3.0%. The Three Iron Ore amigos all down, BHP off 1.8% with FMG off 3.4%. Lithium stocks back under pressure, MIN off 7.6% and PLS falling 6.0%. Rare earth giant LYC rose 0.8%. Oil and gas stocks gave up strong early gains as the crude price fell back, KAR up 2.0% and BPT bouncing 2.4%. Uranium ok, nothing spectacular, DYL up 1.1% and PDN up 0.8%. In corporate news, CTT fell 31.2% on a trading update and a large line of stock going through. MVF rose 9.1% as its CEO resigned. COH up 0.7% after downgrading its earnings outlook. 

Nothing on the economic front today. Asian markets weaker, Japan off 0.6% and HK off 0.9. China unchanged.

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