Market Watch

Wall Street reached fresh heights as the Nasdaq hit a new record, yet beneath the surface, investors are navigating rising US Treasury yields, stubborn diesel fuel supply constraints, and sovereign debt jitters across Europe. Joe Quinlan, Chief Market Strategist at US Trust - Bank of America Private Wealth Management, joins The Morning Run to unpack global market dynamics.

He breaks down why tech remains in its "sweet spot," how soaring diesel prices impact broader economic affordability, why bad news in Europe could actually boost large European exporters, and what high bond yields mean for Fed rate policy.

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US equities remain close to record highs despite a surprisingly weak September jobs report, Treasury yields reaching levels not seen in decades and expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates again. With the S&P 500 up nearly 13% this year, investors are increasingly confronting a stark divergence between resilient stocks and a bruising bond sell-off. Can equities keep climbing as borrowing costs rise, or will increasingly attractive bond yields finally start pulling money away from stocks?

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The S&P 500 ended the third quarter higher, but the equal-weighted index fell about 4% in September, so the gains came from a small group of stocks. With AI borrowing being tested in the credit market, the dollar at a three-month high and close to US$8 trillion sitting in money-market funds, investors have to decide whether this rally can spread to more stocks or whether it's getting fragile. We look at where to position for the fourth quarter and what would get that cash moving. We speak to Tim Mulholland, President of TJM Limited.

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Global equities closed the quarter near record highs, even with oil up 40% and the US 10-year Treasury yield above 5.2%. US PCE inflation came in cooler than expected at 3.4%, but rising oil is pulling yields up with it, and Australia is already hiking into 4% inflation. So is the bond market warning about something stock investors don't want to hear? We speak to Vishnu Varathan, Head of Economics & Strategy at Mizuho Bank.

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Investors head into the fourth quarter facing oil above US$100, elevated bond yields and another crucial round of US inflation and employment data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next move. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s enormous US$150 billion share-buyback programme is highlighting just how much cash the AI boom is generating at its biggest beneficiaries. With bonds offering increasingly attractive returns, are equities still worth the additional risk as markets enter the final months of the year?

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After four brutal years near one-year lows, could China’s mainland stock market finally be quietly carving out a bottom? While the benchmark CSI 300 remains in the red, subtle signs of momentum are beginning to emerge under the surface. Eric Khaw, Senior Portfolio Manager at Amova Asset Management, joins Market Watch to explore whether a true turning point is taking shape for mainland equities.

Eric weighs in on where the true winners and losers are emerging, whether the momentum in technology is broad-based or dangerously concentrated, and how he is positioning for mainland A-shares today.

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Higher oil prices, rising Treasury yields and the prospect of further Fed rate hikes are putting pressure on US markets. Joe Quinlan, Chief Market Strategist at US Trust-BOA Private Wealth Management, discusses the risks to corporate earnings, US-China trade and what the latest moves in gold and silver are telling investors.

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Despite a temporary US-China agreement on reciprocal tariff reductions and 10-year Treasury yields reaching 5.23%, global markets face mounting pressure from sticky inflation and rising geopolitical tensions. Laurent Lequeu, Independent Market Analyst and Writer of The Macro Butler newsletter, joins The Morning Run to discuss how capital is reacting and why the current trade truce may break down after the US midterm elections.

Laurent also examines why the Federal Reserve is likely to prioritise sticky inflation over employment numbers with another potential rate hike, whether stock valuations can remain resilient against 5% yields, and why physical gold and real assets remain prime hedges as distrust in government debt and dollar weaponisation grows.

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With Brent crude holding above $100 a barrel and 10-year US Treasury yields pressing past 5.19%, global markets are navigating a complex mix of rising inflation expectations, rate hike pressures, and corporate debt strain. Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence, joins The Morning Run to unpack where international markets are heading next.

Tony addresses the direct correlation between elevated energy prices and surging bond yields, the growing market unease over AI infrastructure debt following SoftBank’s bond pricing and Oracle’s data center retreat, and how US tariff negotiations could impact corporate margins. He also evaluates the valuation pressure facing small caps and what a stronger US dollar means for Asian currencies and central bank policies.

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The Fed has raised rates and says they'll stay high for longer, and Treasury yields are at levels not seen in years. So is that bad news for stocks, and does the AI growth story still hold up? We speak to Patrick Chang, Chief Investment Officer, Segments & Propositions at CIMB, about what's changed in his outlook, how he's thinking about diversification and hedging, and the indicators he's watching over the next few months.

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