Copper prices climbed to a record in London on Dec 14 and have jumped 24 per cent this year on speculation miners and recyclers are not producing enough supply to keep up with demand. Credit Agricole CIB Metals analyst Robin Bhar in London gave his views on what's next for the metal of the moment.
Copper prices are rising on genuine demand and supply reasons, though undoubtedly there is some speculation which is pushing the price higher. House forecast is in the region of 5% for demand expansion, due to shortfall in supply. Price prediction for 2011 is not as high as Goldman Sach's prediction of $11,000 per tonne.
Credit Agricole's concern is substitution of copper with aluminium. Currently, price differential between copper and aluminium prices is almost four times. Higher prices will encourage substitution of copper with aluminium, which is an acceptable alternative in sectors such as power. Hence, aluminum prices could also increase next year because of substitution away from higher copper prices.
He also commented on reports that JP Morgan Chase will soon launch an ETF in copper and how JP Morgan Chase was alleged to have bought up more than half of all the copper reserves on the London Metals Exchange. As it is within rules of the exchange, the London Metal Exchange would be happy for this dominant position to exist, as long as the market remains orderly.
Copper is used as a thermal conductor, an electrical conductor, a building material and a constituent of various metal alloys.
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