How the stories we tell ourselves lead to economic change. What are current pandemic related narratives that are impacting financial markets and the economy.

Topics covered include:

• Examples of mathematical models for epidemics.
• What are the risks when the global economy is opened again.
• Under what circumstances do individuals rely on anecdotal evidence rather than statistics.
• What are some propositions that underly how economic narratives spread.
• What are some examples of major narratives that impact the economy.
• How humans have a bias toward action and how to deal with that when the best course is to stay in place.
• Should investors be increasing their stock exposure now that the markets are rallying and central banks are taking aggressive action.

Thanks to Policygenius and LinkedIn for sponsoring the episode.

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What is the difference between risk and uncertainty and how our decision making approach should differ under each scenario. Why pandemics are highly uncertain and should be treated as such.

Topics covered include:

• How the coronavirus pandemic is far worse than other pandemics this century.
• How humans have a difficult time accepting that things won't return to normal.
• What is the difference between risk and uncertainty.
• How we make decisions should differ if something is uncertain versus risky.
• What is the minimax regret approach to making decisions under uncertainty.
• How stories help us deal with uncertainty.
• How the story driving financial markets has changed.
• What is the duration and severity of bear markets during a recession and how large have bear market stock rallies been.
• What will it take for the pandemic to end and to be more confident about the future.

Thanks to Mint Mobile and Grammarly for sponsoring the episode.

For show notes and more information on this episode click here.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What central banks such as the Federal Reserve and federal governments are doing to counteract the negative impact of the pandemic related economic shutdown. What are the risks of this massive monetary and fiscal stimulus and how to mitigate those risks.

Topics covered include:

• How central banks have the capacity to create an infinite amount of money.
• How the Federal Reserve is using its money-printing ability to stabilize the financial system and reduce the negative impact of the pandemic related economic shutdown.
• What are the mechanics of quantitative easing.
• What are examples of stimulus programs during the Great Depression that didn't work because they were too focused on social engineering. 
• How massive central bank and government stimulus could lead to inflation or deflation.
• How inflation-indexed bonds such as Treasury Inflation Protection Securities can help reduce inflation risk, and why owning individual TIPs is particularly attractive right now.
• Why it's okay for investors with a long time horizon to ride out the current market turmoil without reducing risk.
• What are current and leading economic indicators suggesting about the severity of the economic shutdown and the potential for recovery.

Thanks to LinkedIn Learning and Rad Power Bikes for sponsoring the episode.

For show notes and more information on this episode click here.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How to avoid ruin and help others avoid ruin as the economy shuts down to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

Topics covered include:

• What is the precautionary principle and how can it help us make important decisions with regards to the coronavirus pandemic.
• How many people could be infected with Covid-19 in the next 30 to 60 days at the current daily growth rate.
• Why investment managers are selling assets to reduce their market exposure.
• Should individual investors be increasing or reducing their exposure to the stock market in the current market environment.
• How recent actions by the Federal Reserve suggest they think a U.S. recession is imminent.
• What can individuals locked down at home do to survive mentally and emotionally.
• What we can do to help businesses avoid ruin during the pandemic crisis. 

Thanks to Netsuite and Rad Power Bikes for sponsoring the episode. Text the word RAD to the number 64-000 to get a free accessory with the purchase of a bike.

For show notes and more information on this episode click here.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Why closed-end funds are David's favorite investment vehicle, particularly during market panics. What are the unique characteristics of these funds and what are successful strategies for investing them.

Topics covered include:

• How closed-end funds differ from open-end mutual funds and ETFs.
• Why most closed-end funds are bond funds and use leverage.
• Why closed-end funds can sell at large discounts and premiums.
• What are managed distribution programs.
• How to evaluate and select closed-end funds.
• What is the Income Factory approach to closed-end fund investing.

Thanks to LinkedIn and The HPScast for sponsoring the episode.

For show notes and more information on this episode click here.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Why most investors practice both market timing and time in the market. Why it is okay to reduce stock exposure given the coronavirus pandemic threat.

• What would a stock portfolio return that misses the best or worst days and how likely is that.
• How do rolling 30-year stock returns differ depending on the starting point.
• Why are stocks likely to outperform bonds over the next 30 years.
• What is sequence of return risk. 
• What is market timing.
• Why long-term investors should never move completely out of the stock market, but it is still okay to adjust stock exposure based on market conditions.
• What are some additional rules of thumb for market timing.
• How the coronavirus pandemic has increased financial and economic risks and what to do about it.

Thanks to Policygenius and Mint Mobile for sponsoring the episode.

For show notes and more information on this episode click here.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Almost half of Millennials want to retire early. Will that hurt economic growth? There were similar concerns in the 1920s that early retirement would wreck the economy. In fact, there was significant pushback against retiring at all due to fears retirements would destroy the economy. Yet, the Great Depression still came. In this episode, we consider what ended the Roaring Twenties, caused the Great Depression, and how early retirements impact the economy. 

Topics covered include:

• What is the paradox of thrift and how does it apply to early retirement.
• Why the 1920s were called the Roaring Twenties.
• Why the work culture in the 1920s was for workers to not retire, but "die in the harness."
• What caused the Great Depression.
• How economies and job markets adapt over time.
• How waves of early retirements could change the economy.

Thanks to LinkedIn Learning and Vistaprint for sponsoring the episode. Use promo code David to get free shipping from Vistaprint.

For show notes and more information on this episode click here.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What factors lead to hyperinflation, why it is so devastating, how hyperinflation can be overcome and what can individuals do to be prepared for hyperinflation.

Topics covered include:

• What causes inflation and how do central banks manage it.
• How the causes of hyperinflation differ from more normal levels of inflation.
• What is the biggest challenge of living in a country with hyperinflation.
• How Zimbabwe and other countries were able to overcome hyperinflation and how Venezuela is slowly taking steps to combat hyperinflation.
• Why Zimbabwe is again experiencing high inflation.
• How individuals can protect against inflation.
• What individuals can do to prepare for hyperinflation in case it comes.

Thanks to Netsuite and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.

For show notes and more information on this episode click here.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How pandemics have impacted the economy and financial markets. Where does the coronavirus rank in severity compared to other pandemics. What portfolio changes, if any, should investors make in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Topics covered include:

• Definition of a pandemic
• The worst pandemics in the 20th and 21st centuries
• What are the factors in determining the severity of the coronavirus' impact
• What are the economic ramifications of the coronavirus.
• How did financial markets perform during previous pandemic episodes.
• Are there portfolio changes investors should make in response to the coronavirus

Thanks to Policygenius and LinkedIn Jobs for sponsoring the episode.

For show notes and more information on this episode click here.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How most money, such as currency, bank deposits, money market mutual funds, and repurchase agreements, is really short-term debt, often backed by other debt. As a result, money is subject to runs when investors lose confidence and don't want to own it. That can lead to financial crises.

Topics covered in this episode include:

• How counterfeiting currency works.
• Why most money is debt backed by debt.
• How a loss of confidence in money leads to bank runs and other financial crises.
• How demand for U.S. Treasuries as collateral is keeping interest rates low even though the U.S. federal budget deficit is growing.
• Why the Federal Reserve is considering capping interest rate yields on U.S. Treasuries and what are the risks of doing so.
• What can individuals do to protect themselves against financial crisis caused by runs on banks and financial securities.

Thanks to Vistaprint for sponsoring the episode. Use promo code: "david" to get free shipping. Also thank you to The Bouqs Company for sponsoring the show. Use promo code: "david" to get 25% off.

For show notes and more information on this episode click here.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.