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"They're going to be giving this stuff away soon" I mumbled to myself
as I shook change out of a fifteen dollar bill to fill my tank.
When I drive by a gas station with low prices, I remark "they're going to be giving it away soon." It's my inside joke that gets a guaranteed eye roll from whoever else is in the car. Sometimes that is just me. Recently, some gas stations have come close to giving gas away, one near my house sold gas for $1 and gave free sandwiches and water away with a fill up recently. Costco was selling gas $1.17/gallon.
But yesterday - they really were giving it away for free.
To be precise, the price of oil went below $0. People were PAYING to get rid of oil. What's up with that?
First, a primer. If you're trading oil for financial purposes (speculation, hedging, fun or profit, etc) you don't go out and secure a few barrels of the stuff, you trade contracts on a bunch of it. These standardized futures contracts state what type of oil, how much ($10,000 barrels, generally), what type (West Texas Intermediate, in this case) and when it will be delivered (there is a monthly schedule). If you hold the contract when it expires, congratulations, you own the oil! You just need to go to Cushing, OK to pick it up. This is all very standard stuff, and it's right there in the contract:
Delivery shall be made free-on-board ("F.O.B.") at any pipeline or storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma with pipeline access to Enterprise, Cushing storage or Enbridge, Cushing storage. Delivery shall be made in accordance with all applicable Federal executive orders and all applicable Federal, State and local laws and regulations.
At buyer's option, delivery shall be made by any of the following methods: (1) by interfacility transfer ("pumpover") into a designated pipeline or storage facility with access to seller's incoming pipeline or storage facility; (2) by in-line (or in-system) transfer, or book-out of title to the buyer; or (3) if the seller agrees to such transfer and if the facility used by the seller allows for such transfer, without physical movement of product, by in-tank transfer of title to the buyer.
If you don't want to own the oil, easy, just sell the contract and pick up the next month. Generally, this works pretty smoothly. Again, oil is a widely used commodity and if you don't want it, someone else probably does.
But lately, oil prices haven't been working the same way they generally do. With heavy travel restrictions and everyone working from home, demand for oil in the form of gasoline and jet fuel has declined precipitously. On top of that Saudi Arabia and Russia decided start a price war, pumping as fast as they could and pushing the price down even further. American producers, indebted since the last oil price shock in 2016, kept their rigs pumping even though they starting losing money on every barrel. Having a little money and a lot of bills is better than having no money, and still a lot of bills, they figured.
So oil prices kept dropping, but how did they get negative?
If you're pumping oil, but nobody wants it, you've got to store it. People with storage space, in huge above ground tanks, massive ships or a salt dome in their back yard, charge for storage. That storage was filling up fast. When storage is full, and nobody will buy from you, the price will plummet more. Eventually, you've got to pay someone to take it from you.
A particular problem emerges when people holding contracts for oil realize that they can't store the oil either. If you're just holding the contracts in your brokerage account, or a fund like USO you can't take physical delivery of oil. You have to get rid of those contracts at any price - even if it means paying someone to take them.
That is what happened Monday. Nobody had storage space for oil and nobody wanted to hold their contract as it expired. Brokerages dumped the shares as fast as they could, which meant in some cases they were paying to get rid of them. The price of oil to be delivered in May dropped as low as -$40 at one point!
Could this happen again?
It is not impossible for oil prices to go below zero, but this has been a lesson learned for a lot of market participants. Brokers don't want to be on the hook for closing out customers positions at such a large loss (these are traded using money borrowed from the brokerage, if the value goes negative again, and you can't pay the broker back, that is the broker's problem!). Many will likely update their policies and procedures to keep that from happening again. Plenty of investors will continue to buy oil futures or funds though and storage will continue to fill up. The price action may not be as dramatic next time, but there certainly can be a next time.
Posted by Ryder Taff, CFA
https://newper.blogspot.com/2020/04/free-oil.html
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UPDATE: Read host Ryder Taff's blog post about oil prices going negative https://newper.blogspot.com/2020/04/free-oil.html
The official name for the COVID-19 stimulus checks is the Economic Impact Payment. Have you gotten your check yet?
Want to see when you should get your check? Get My Payment is helping millions of taxpayers. Since its launch on April 15, millions of taxpayers have been able to input their direct deposit information to speed—and track—their payments. The IRS reminds taxpayers the information is updated once daily, usually overnight, so they only need to check the application once a day. www.irs.gov/getmypaymentfaq
Need to give your payment information to the IRS? www.irs.gov/getmypaymentfaq
Have you filed and paid your personal income taxes yet? The Mississippi Department of Revenue extended Income tax due dates, including estimated payments, to Friday, May 15th, 2020. The deadlines to FILE and PAY federal income taxes are extended to July 15, 2020.
For the calendar year 2020, no one will have to take a required minimum distribution from any individual retirement accounts or workplace retirement savings plans, like a 401(k). That way, you aren’t forced to sell investments that may have fallen in value, which would lock in losses. If you don’t need the money now, you can let the investments sit and hope that they recover.
You can withdraw up to $100,000 this year from your IRA that you are contributing to without the usual 10 percent penalty, as long as it’s because of the outbreak. You will also be able to spread out any income taxes that you owe over three years from the date you took the distribution. And if you want, you could put the money back into the account before those three years are up, even though the rules may normally keep you from making a contribution that large.
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/821457551/whats-inside-the-senate-s-2-trillion-coronavirus-aid-package
Calls concerned:
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This is the 8th week Money Talks has focused on the financial aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Don't compound your financial troubles by being a victim of scammers targeting your economic impact payment. Guest Wilks Cutrer from MPB's Everyday Tech gave out some advice. http://everydaytech.mpbonline.org/
Beware of scammers wanting to reimburse you for your extra costs during this emergency or sell you items to ensure your protection. Look out for "snake oil salesmen". Watch out for bogus charities.
If you think you are a victim of a scam or attempted fraud involving COVID-19, you can report it without leaving your home though a number of platforms. Contact the National Center for Disaster Fraud Hotline at 866-720-5721 or via email at [email protected] If it's a cyber scam, submit your complaint through https://www.ic3.gov/default.aspx https://www.justice.gov/coronavirus
Those who receive unsolicited emails, text messages or social media attempts to gather information that appear to be from either the IRS or an organization closely linked to the IRS, such as the Electronic Federal Tax Payment System (EFTPS), should forward it to [email protected].
Taxpayers are encouraged not to engage potential scammers online or on the phone. Learn more about reporting suspected scams by going to the Report Phishing and Online Scams page on IRS.gov.
Official IRS information about the COVID-19 pandemic and economic impact payments can be found on the Coronavirus Tax Relief page on IRS.gov. The page is updated quickly when new information is available.
https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/how-recognize-and-avoid-phishing-scams
https://www.irs.gov/coronavirus-tax-relief-and-economic-impact-payments
https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-issues-warning-about-coronavirus-related-scams-watch-out-for-schemes-tied-to-economic-impact-payments
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/821457551/whats-inside-the-senate-s-2-trillion-coronavirus-aid-package
http://moneytalks.mpbonline.org/episodes/money-talks-unemployment MDES
http://moneytalks.mpbonline.org/episodes/money-talks-cyber-security Cyber Security
http://moneytalks.mpbonline.org/episodes/5cd31f1533f6c1be55607d8c Scams
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What a jam packed podcast! We took so many calls and emails with our guests: Jackie Turner, Executive Director and Timothy Rush, Director of Unemployment Insurance from MDES. Have a listen - maybe we answered your questions.
The big takeaway from the show - have patience. This is happening fast. The 900 phone lines are jammed. Try again, try another phone line, try to email. Have patience.
Calls dealt with:
Individuals receiving unemployment benefits will not be required to serve a waiting period week for initial claims filed from now through June 27, 2020.
Work search requirements that normally must be met to be considered eligible for Unemployment Insurance benefits will be suspended beginning March 21, 2020, until June 27, 2020. So to remain eligible for benefits, you don’t have to report job searching.
Who is eligible to file a claim due to COVID-19?
https://mdes.ms.gov/news/2020/03/20/mississippi-announces-support-for-workers-impacted-by-covid-19/
https://mdes.ms.gov/unemployment-claims/covid19/
CARE Act relief check: If you don’t have direct deposit on file with the IRS, there will be an online portal where you can add your information. The IRS hasn’t set that up yet, but once it does, you’ll be able to access it. https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/economic-impact-payments-what-you-need-to-know
You don’t have to do anything to get your payment as long as you have filed a tax return for 2018 or 2019. If you receive Social Security or railroad retirement benefits and don’t typically file a tax return, you don’t have to do anything. The IRS will use your benefit payment information to generate your relief payment.
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Listeners want to know how the CARES Act will affect their personal finances. Host Dr. Nancy Lottridge-Anderson, remotely, answered questions for the hour.
https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/2020/03/29/coronavirus-mississippi-tate-reeves-shelter-in-place-covid-19-testing-symptoms-health-department/2936075001/
https://mdes.ms.gov/news/2020/03/20/mississippi-announces-support-for-workers-impacted-by-covid-19/
https://www.msema.org/news/public-service-commission-to-prohibiting-utility-shutoffs/
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/821457551/whats-inside-the-senate-s-2-trillion-coronavirus-aid-package
https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-stimulus-package-questions-answers.html
Small business load information https://covid19relief.sba.gov/#/ and https://www.peoplelease.com/hubfs/023595_comm_corona_virus_smallbiz_loan_final_revised.pdf
The potentially forgivable SBA 7(a) Relief Loan is not yet available. SBA will have to issue regulations for them in the next couple of weeks before banks can begin taking applications.
The SBA 7(b) Economic Injury Disaster Loans (what I call the O.G. of SBA loans during times of federally declared disasters) are available, but they will not be forgivable. However, they do have very favorable terms.
Basically, if small business owners can hold on for a couple of weeks and wait until the 7(a) loans are made available, they could reap the benefit of potentially free money by complying with the spending terms (payroll, mortgage, utilities, etc.) and having their loans forgiven over time.
Here's a breakdown HORNE has put together explaining the differences between the two options: https://connect.hornellp.com/en/resources/tax/2-loan-options-can-help-businesses-weather-covid-19-shutdown
HORNE will be rolling out more guidance as they know more here: https://connect.hornellp.com/en/covid19
Phone call questions:
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Nancy Lottridge-Anderson answered questions remotely for our show.
Calls and email dealt with
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We continue to experience the financial effects of COVID-19. Ryder Taff talks more about the stock market and our economy.
Call topics:
Websites we discussed:
Congressional leaders, administration push swift action on third coronavirus relief bill with major economic stimulus. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/16/congress-fiscal-coronavirus/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2019/02/28/average-grocery-store-bill-cost-is-driven-up-most-by-these-items/39094659/
https://grocery.walmart.com/
https://www.kroger.com/i/ways-to-shop
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/27/best-low-cost-online-grocery-delivery-service-reviews.html
https://www.moneycrashers.com/online-grocery-home-delivery-service/
https://clark.com/shopping-retail/foods-to-buy-in-bulk-to-save-money/
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MPB's Money Talks discusses the stock markets' reactions to the 2020 Corona virus ramification.
Ryder Taff mentioned the Wall Street Journal article about circuit breakers.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/traders-closely-watching-circuit-breakers-thresholds-11583761223
Here's another article about circuit breakers:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-plunge-p-triggered-trading-062630195.html
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What's going on with the 2020 stock market?! Our Chartered Financial Analyst takes questions and talks about uncertainties and personal finance. Ryder Taff from New Perspectives Check the background of this investment professional on FINRA's BrokerCheck.
Joshua Ryder Taff CRD# 6009566
Calls concerning:
Which explanation for the term"bear" market do you like best?
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Nancy and Ryder often give advice on what to do with your money. Today they’re going to remind you what you might NOT want to do with your savings, investments, or retirement funds. They also take other personal finance questions.
https://www.irs.gov/
https://www.irs.gov/filing/free-file-do-your-federal-taxes-for-free
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From the publisher's feed
Money Talks focuses on personal finance as it applies to Mississippians. In any given week, we’ll talk about anything from preparing your taxes to saving for college or investing in the stock…
Money Talks airs Tuesday mornings at 9 a.m. CST on MPB Think Radio and online at mpbonline.org. Email the show: [email protected].
Need a budget? Here's one: https://consumer.gov/sites/default/files/pdf-1020-make-budget-worksheet_form.pdf
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