Money Tree Investing

Historically, every time the yield curve inverts, a recession follows, but don't fret just yet, this could be correlation, not causation. Recession tends to follow when the yield curve reverts back to normal after inversion, rather than during the inversion itself. The Federal Reserve's themselves and their actions have impacted the yield curve over the year and shifts in banking behavior can slow the economy. Changes in economic conditions and market behaviors suggest a potential recession is forthcoming, but don't panic yet, you can't predict the market.

Today we discuss...

• The inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, which is generally considered abnormal.
• The Fed's recent rate hikes caused the short end of the yield curve to increase sharply, resulting in an inversion.
• Banks are less likely to lend during periods of an inverted yield curve because lending at a lower rate than they borrow leads to losses.
• Changes in how money is created may alter the predictive power of the yield curve inversion as a recession indicator.
• Household allocation to stocks has recently hit an all-time high, indicating extreme market complacency.
• Fixed income, traditionally seen as a conservative investment, became the worst-performing asset class in 2022 due to interest rate volatility.
• Many investors may be unaware of their true risk tolerance, having not experienced significant capital loss since the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
• Risk in investing includes not just losing money but also the loss of time, as shown by the S&P 500's negative performance from 2000 to 2013.
• Confidence in the American Dream has significantly eroded since 2012, with fewer people believing hard work will lead to success.
• Credit card defaults are reaching record highs, surpassing previous peaks seen during the dot-com bubble and the financial crisis.
• U.S. government spending is projected to increase significantly, with 87% allocated to interest expenses, Social Security, and healthcare.
• Food prices have reached new highs, contributing to financial stress for consumers.
• The cost of U.S. federal debt interest has skyrocketed, reaching $1.1 trillion annually, or $3 billion per day.
• There is concern that the Federal Reserve is not truly independent, with its actions influenced by government, banks, and other powerful entities.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/inverted-yield-curve-641

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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Andrew Stotz returns to discuss World War 2.5! Having moved from the U.S. to Thailand in 1992, Stotz has extensive experience in the Thai stock market and now runs A. Stotz Investment Research. Stotz shared his perspective on U.S. dominance in Europe, the growing tension with China, and the shift of global resources, particularly in Africa. He also highlighted the increasing complexity of international compliance regulations driven by Europe's green energy transition. Learn how all this significantly impact global markets and developing nations.

Today we discuss...

• How Andrew began a career as a sell-side analyst in 1993.
• Andrew's 20 years in the Thai stock market and where his experiences led him.
• Andrew's podcast My Worst Investment Ever, focusing on lessons from financial failures.
• The U.S.'s dominance over Europe and the ongoing geopolitical tensions.
• The potential collapse of the U.S. market and dollar is a concern for investors outside America.
• Uncertainty about the timing and severity of the anticipated recession.
• The strategic economic moves of China, particularly in Africa, and its implications for global power dynamics.
• The discussion includes the complexities of China's role in global capitalism and its interactions with the U.S. and Europe.
• Europe is criticized for exporting strict compliance and regulations, particularly around green energy, impacting global trade and development.
• And more!

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/world-war-2-5-andrew-stotz-640

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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The fed is cookin' up something and today we talk about their upcoming decision on interest rates, and debate on whether and how much rates should be cut. We discuss the impact of potential rate cuts - there's concern about inadvertently stoking inflation or failing to manage a gradual economic slowdown. We also talk about market expectations, past misjudgments, and behavioral biases and how they effect investment strategies.

Today we discuss...

• How inflation has decreased to 2.2% year over year, which is positive but may not feel beneficial to everyone.
• The Fed is expected to lower interest rates, with debate over whether it will be by 0.25% or 0.5%.
• Unemployment has risen to 4.3%, leading to concerns about a potential recession.
• Whether the Fed's actions are aimed at inflation control or market performance.
• The concept of second-level thinking in investing and the importance of understanding market expectations.
• How the Fed may lower rates once this year and not make multiple cuts unless there is a severe recession.
• Historical comparisons between past and current interest rates and unemployment rates.
• The importance of understanding market pricing, timing, and investor behavior.
• The role of behavioral finance biases, such as recency bias, in economic decision-making.
• Strategies for passive investing, portfolio rebalancing, and navigating the bond market in a changing interest rate environment.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/fed-is-cookin-639

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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Kepmton Schwab is here to discuss Venture Capital (VC) investing! We also discuss the emotional and strategic aspects of selling a business and how successful sales really comes down to aligning the interests of both the seller and the buyer.

We also talk about the hot trend of institutional money pouring into private companies, especially in tech and AI, and how emerging technologies can boost a company's value and more! Today we discuss...

• Kempton Schwab's background as a retired executive operator and business owner, now working in advisory.
• Kempton's story about his experience in selling his company.
• How successful transactions are rooted in aligning the seller's and buyer's motivations.
• The importance of business stability, customer base, and technology in determining company valuation and multiples.
• The role of AI and emerging technologies in enhancing existing value propositions rather than creating new ones.
• Public and private markets, and the opportunities and challenges in technology and traditional sectors.
• The trend of institutional money chasing private companies and how it impacts valuations and the industry.
• The significance of critical thinking and understanding a company's value proposition before investing.
• Practical takeaways for investors and business owners considering selling their companies.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/vc-investing-kempton-schwab-638

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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Powell was in Jackson Hole last week and today we discuss some Jackson Hole Revelation on the future of the market and interest. We also talk the current election and all of the ins and outs of election strategy. Then, we veer into how social media is changing elections and how it feels like people, especially comedians, are holding back more than they used to because of cancel culture. We reflected on how trends, whether in culture or finance, often swing to extremes before eventually balancing out.

Today we discuss...

• How neither major party is focusing on policy; Trump's policies are somewhat known, but Harris has been silent.
• The current strategy of staying silent and letting the press handle the narrative reflects a shift in political tactics.
• There is concern about electing a candidate without clear policy positions or public discourse.
• Social media has heightened expectations for political figures to be vocal and transparent.
• Criticisms of Harris include skepticism about her ability to change policies while already in office.
• Historical examples, such as Johnson and Kennedy, show that VPs may have differing policies from Presidents.
• The pendulum of cultural and political trends often swings from one extreme to the other, influencing market behavior.
• Social media and current cultural dynamics affect how comedy and political commentary are received.
• The market trends, such as real estate prices, are influenced by broader economic conditions and cultural shifts.
• Reversion to the mean is a concept where extreme market movements often correct back to an equilibrium.
• Understanding financial trends and market cycles can help in making informed investment decisions.
• What Powell discussed at Jackson Hole.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/jackson-hole-revelation-637

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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Roger Silk joins us to discuss TIPs, treasuries, and inflation, and more! He explains the nuances of the repo market, potential risks, and its role in the broader financial system.

Silk also touches on the impact of interest rates on asset values and the banking sector from his time at World Bank. Silk also discusses complex financial products like treasury inflation-protected securities!

Join us today as we discuss...

• Roger discusses his background, including his PhD in applied economics and founding of Sterling Foundation Management.
• Roger describes his work at the World Bank, focusing on treasury operations and the repo market.
• The potential problems in the repo market, including issues during financial crises.
• How interest rates impact asset valuations and bank profits, particularly during periods of zero interest rates.
• The role of human capital in risk assessment and the importance of individual goals in portfolio management.
• The risks associated with inflation, especially in relation to complex financial instruments like TIPS.
• The challenges and complexities of understanding and investing in TIPS as an inflation hedge.
• Alternative assets like gold and farmland, distinguishing between gold as money and farmland as an investment.
• Roger's book The Investor's Dilemma Decoded.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/treasuries-and-inflation-roger-silk-636

A lot of volatility exists in the stock market right now, but did you know you can actually benefit from it?

Today we talk about how market reactions are driven by expectations versus reality, with surprises like unexpected Fed actions causing significant volatility.

Political uncertainty certainly has an impact on the market and you can't even rely on Wall Street predictions. That's why it's crucial to understand market sentiment and how everyone's collective behavior influences market trends over trying to predict the market itself!

Today we discuss...

• The recent stock market volatility and the aim to understand it without getting bogged down in specifics.
• How market reactions often follow Fed announcements, but these are just correlations, not direct causes.
• How volatility can also be triggered by political uncertainty, such as the potential outcomes of upcoming elections.
• The Fed's future rate moves and their unexpectedness contribute significantly to market shifts.
• Wall Street predictions can be inaccurate, with current expectations showing a high chance of rate cuts in the future despite past errors.
• People don't fully realize inflation's impact because it is largely contained.
• Personal inflation rates, such as grocery bills or car prices, may be much higher than CPI figures suggest.
• The old methods of addressing inflation, like investing in the S&P 500, might not be effective against current "silent inflation."
• The currency market is massive, and the carry trade is typically suited for large institutions rather than individual investors.
• Lumber prices have dropped significantly, correlating with the housing market and broader economic conditions.
• Housing affordability has decreased, with higher income levels required to afford typical homes in many markets.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/volatility-exists-635

Do you have proper protection for your portfolio? If not, gold might be the solution for you. Rich Checkan is here today to discuss the "stealth gold market." He delves into the cultural differences in gold ownership between Eastern and Western investors. He also touches on the distinct dynamics of the silver market and the industrial uses and market behavior of platinum and palladium. We also discuss the manipulation of gold prices and the broader implications of the massive money printing and national debt on the gold market.

Today we discuss...

• Asset Strategies International deals in gold, silver, platinum, palladium, bars, coins, certificates, and rare coins.
• The current gold market is described as a "stealth gold market" due to its consolidation and recent breakout.
• Western investors are hesitant to buy gold at high prices, while Eastern buyers and central banks support the market.
• There has been a significant transfer of gold from the West to the East.
• The premiums for gold are higher on the Shanghai Gold Exchange compared to the London Exchange.
• Central banks are buying gold to reduce their dollar reserves and increase holdings in gold.
• The silver market is also seeing interest, with silver prices at about 50-60% of their all-time highs.
• Platinum and palladium are primarily industrial metals, used in jewelry and catalytic converters.
• The demand for silver is expected to increase due to its use in green technologies like solar panels.
• The gold market is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical issues and economic concerns.
• Central bank buying of gold has been high due to concerns about the US dollar and debt.
• The relationship between debt, currency, and gold is often misunderstood, leading to underestimation of gold's value.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/protection-for-your-portfolio-rich-checkan-634

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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There's new investing framework you need to be aware of! Join us today as we discuss what it is. Today we chat about the recent performance of the S&P 500, the current economic system, which is reliant on money printing by the Federal Reserve, and the lack of viable alternatives to this system. We need to be able to adapt to new information and market conditions, even when it challenges previous assumptions. Investors to be flexible in their thinking and strategy.

Join us as we discuss...

• The S&P 500 has seen a strong upward trend but experienced a recent decline.
• Recent job numbers were significantly lower than expected, causing disappointment.
• The current economic environment is complex, with inflation subsiding but not expected to return drastically.
• The system heavily relies on quantitative easing (money printing), with no easy solution to stop it without severe consequences.
• Asset prices, including stocks and real estate, are largely influenced by the Fed's balance sheet.
• Technology and crypto are seen as the primary assets that might outperform inflation.
• Real estate and other traditional investments may not keep up with inflation.
• Changing perspectives and adapting to new information is crucial for investors.
• Current market conditions, including potential softening and election uncertainties, may impact future performance.
• The framework for understanding inflation and market dynamics is evolving, and past assumptions may no longer apply.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/new-investing-framework-633

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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Bob Elliott discusses how investing in hedge funds can be for everyone! Elliott highlighted the traditional "two-and-twenty" fee structure, common in hedge funds, private equity, and other alternative assets, which can significantly erode investor returns. His firm aims to replicate these strategies, including equity long-short and global macro, using advanced machine learning to infer hedge fund positions from return data, making them accessible at lower fees for the average investor.

Today we discuss...

• Bob's focus to bring low-cost indexing to the world of two-and-twenty, similar to the impact of stock and bond indexing.
• Hedge fund strategies, despite being expensive, offer good returns with lower volatility and drawdowns compared to stocks.
• Various hedge fund strategies include equity long-short, global macro, fixed income, and emerging market strategies.
• Real-time performance data helps in understanding and replicating hedge fund strategies.
• The current economic cycle is income-driven rather than credit-driven, making it more durable to rising interest rates.
• Overvaluation and high expectations suggest that now may not be the best time to invest heavily in stocks.
• The similarities between the current period and the 1970s highlight the importance of diversified portfolios.
• Factors like de-globalization, geopolitical tensions, and inflationary pressures could influence future economic dynamics.
• Volatility in market expectations and the reality of economic conditions contribute to the current buoyant market despite high interest rates.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast

Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/investing-in-hedge-funds-bob-elliot-632