Money Tree Investing

In the financial markets, it's common to spurious correlations based on historical data. However, the economic landscape has evolved, and banks now invest more in treasuries and borrow from the Fed rather than traditional lending. This shift questions the yield curve's predictive power. Additionally, spurious correlations show absurd links between unrelated data points, emphasizing the need for critical analysis of data to avoid misleading narratives.

Today we discuss...

Financial markets often draw conclusions from patterns, such as the inverted yield curve predicting recessions. Today's economy differs from 30 years ago, with banks favoring treasuries over traditional lending, altering the yield curve's predictive power. Correlation does not always imply causation; the inverted yield curve's causative effect may be weakened. Spurious correlations can be humorous but highlight the pitfalls of finding meaning in random data patterns. The bond market, at $130 trillion, dwarfs the $50 trillion US stock market and $100 trillion global stock market. The increasing debt and bond market highlight the importance of access to capital. AI's impact is currently seen as limited by many CEOs, viewing it as a potential rather than immediate profit driver. Microsoft's expenses on data centers have increased significantly, reflecting the infrastructure investment for cloud and AI services. Commercial real estate faces challenges, with significant losses on properties due to rising interest rates and reduced demand. Residential real estate is also under pressure, with 41.4% of median income now spent on new mortgages, surpassing 2008 levels.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/spurious-correlations-631

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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The crypto trade continues to stay strong! Do you know where to invest? Join us for an interesting conversation with Paul Rosenberg as he shares some tips and current insights on the crypto space. Paul discusses the state of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the challenges they face, and the implications of their integration into mainstream financial systems through ETFs.

He also highlights the geopolitical and economic shifts impacting the global financial landscape.

Today we discuss...

• Paul's background in electrical construction and engineering and his time in the early cypherpunk community.
• His early company called Crypto Hippie that provided internet privacy.
• Paul's monthly newsletter at freemansperspective.com.
• How a majority of illicit activities use traditional currencies like the US dollar.
• Bitcoin has remained consistent, with its value tied to supply and demand rather than being a traditional investment vehicle.
• Bitcoin ETFs are emerging due to high demand, with many US citizens owning some Bitcoin.
• Ethereum runs smart contracts and has experienced technical challenges and governance changes.
• Other cryptocurrencies serve as tools for specific uses rather than investment vehicles.
• ETFs might pull Bitcoin into wallets over which there is some regulatory control.
• Bitcoin can evade currency controls, making it valuable in certain situations.
• The global east and south are building their own monetary systems, moving away from the US dollar.
• Holding physical assets and stocks in real, productive companies is advisable.
• The US and European corporations are vulnerable as the "third world" becomes more self-sufficient.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/crypto-trade-continues-paul-rosenberg-630

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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Did you know ice baths can help you keep a cool head when the markets experience a small pullback? They have so many additional benefits you may never thought of! In this weeks episode we discuss ice baths, the market, housing data, and more.

We talk about confusing and contradictory signals in current trends, the importance of being cautious during a statistically weak period in the stock market, and watching market trends closely to make informed decisions.

Today we discuss...

• Morning routines for stress relief and energy.
• The confusion and contradictory signals in current financial markets.
• The importance of being cautious, especially during a statistically weak period for the stock market.
• Watching market trends closely to make informed decisions.
• There is a mention of a listener, Charles, who corrected an error about the company behind Three Mile Island.
• How the bond market is indicating that rates may drop soon.
• The conversation touches on the performance of various market indexes like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000.
• They note that the market is confusing, with different sectors showing different trends.
• Lightening up portfolios during the current period, which is typically weak statistically.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/small-pullback-ice-baths-629

Join us today as Blake Christian reveals the secrets of Opportunity Zone funds. He's here to explain the flexibility and tax benefits of these funds. He highlights the program's role in encouraging investments in underserved communities. He also shares the challenges in navigating the rules and compares OZ funds with other tax deferral strategies like 1031 exchanges. Prepare to learn everything you've ever needed to know about OZ funds!

We discuss...

• How OZ funds allow deferring capital gains if reinvested within 180 days, with potential tax-free appreciation if held for 10 years.
• Which six states do not conform to Opportunity Zone benefits.
• Over 8,000 census tracts qualify for Opportunity Zone investments, targeting underserved communities with high unemployment and welfare recipients.
• How OZ funds can be used for real estate and operating businesses, attracting investments into otherwise neglected areas.
• The complexities and potential pitfalls in structuring OZ funds, including the necessity of making proper elections and meeting improvement requirements.
• When combining Opportunity Zone funds with Section 1202 qualified small business stock can provide additional tax benefits.
• Installment sales are a simpler alternative for deferring gains but carry risks of higher future tax rates.
• California aggressively taxes deferred gains from 1031 exchanges and Opportunity Zones, even if the taxpayer relocates to another state.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/the-secrets-of-opportunity-zone-funds-blake-christian-628

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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We reveal the next hot trend and cover all the hot topics. We discuss free speech, political violence, and how bad ideas are necessary to recognize good ones.

Additionally, we talk discuss energy consumption, the increasing demand driven by AI and the need for clean energy solutions like nuclear power. We also discuss the growth in data centers and the importance of investing in energy and technology sectors to address these trends.

Today we discuss...

• Recent events including a Trump rally and an assassination attempt.
• Emphasis on the rejection of violence regardless of political affiliation.
• Importance of staying and engaging in political discourse rather than leaving.
• Free speech and the importance of hearing both good and bad ideas.
• The Biden administration's bill to expedite nuclear power plant regulations.
• Highlighting the energy consumption of AI compared to Bitcoin and the potential issues it causes.
• Investment opportunities in nuclear energy and data centers.
• Historical trends in energy consumption and the rise of renewable energy.
• Mention of technological advancements and their impact on energy needs.
• Discussion on the rapid growth of AI and its implications for energy consumption.
• Emphasis on the need for strategic solutions to meet growing energy demands.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/next-hot-trend-627

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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Nelson Chu joins us today to discuss the rise of private credit! He's here to share how private credit emerged as a significant player post-2008 financial crisis when banks scaled back their lending. Despite his initial lack of experience in credit, Nelson was drawn to private credit for its potential to offer shorter durations, lower minimum investments, and attractive yields compared to traditional bank loans.

Today we discuss...

• How Nelson started his career in finance, working at Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, and BlackRock.
• He left traditional finance to start a consulting company and then founded Percent, focusing on private credit.
• Non-bank lenders fulfill the ongoing demand for loans by raising money from the private credit market.
• How banks are finding ways to re-enter the lending market through joint ventures and leveraging other business parts.
• The private credit market seeing pressure due to high interest rates and increasing defaults in consumer credit.
• Competitive tension between banks and private credit lenders influences the cost of capital and lending rates.
• How Nelson's company Percent focuses more on conventional private credit opportunities rather than real estate.
• Lenders are being more selective in extending small business loans due to the current risk cycle.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/the-rise-of-private-credit-nelson-chu-626

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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Are you losing out on good investments due to confirmation bias? We often want clear, definitive answers to how to invest, but in financial markets and social media, this can be tricky. We tend to look for information that supports what we already believe, known as confirmation bias, and social media makes this worse by feeding us content that aligns with our views, creating echo chambers. The takeaway is that while data can guide us, it doesn't provide absolute certainty, and we need to stay aware of our biases and the limitations of the information we consume.

Today we discuss...

• Understanding data interpretation is crucial; it's not about definitive conclusions but about probabilities.
• Our tendency to see patterns where none may exist, like with the inverted yield curve and recessions, shows how we seek certainty.
• Market predictions are complex; events like the 2011 gold crash challenge simplistic explanations.
• Half-truths, more than outright lies, mislead us because they seem plausible but aren't entirely accurate.
• Social media algorithms create filter bubbles, reinforcing our biases and limiting exposure to diverse viewpoints.
• The influence of confirmation bias in political and social beliefs is profound, shaping our perceptions of reality.
• Financial beliefs, like linking money printing directly to inflation, oversimplify complex economic realities.
• Chart crimes and misleading visuals can distort perceptions, leading to erroneous conclusions about trends.
• Bitcoin's price movements post-halving illustrate the complexities of market predictions and speculative fervor.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/confirmation-bias-625

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast

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Join us for a fascinating episode as we welcome Barry Martin, a seasoned expert in covered call option strategy. Barry shares his insights into the growing popularity of covered call writings, discussing how they have surged from $7 billion to $75 billion in just a few years. Whether you're an experienced trader or new to options, this episode offers valuable perspectives on managing risk and generating income through covered calls.

Today we discuss...

• How the popularity of covered option writing has surged in recent years. Barry manages $1.3 billion in option overlay strategies at Sheldon Capital Management.
• The decline in commission costs and increased options education have contributed to the growing interest in covered call writing.
• Covered call writing is most beneficial in choppy, sideways markets, slightly up or down, where income generation is a key goal.
• Barry emphasizes that selling options in low-volatility, low-interest-rate environments is less beneficial.
• Barry advocates for using defensive, market-leading stocks with significant free cash flow for covered call writing.
• Covered call writing is misunderstood as risky by some CPAs and advisors due to a lack of education and familiarity with the strategy.
• Educating oneself, starting with basic strategies like covered calls, and minimizing risk are essential for successful options trading.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/the-growing-popularity-of-covered-call-option-strategy

We are here to celebrate your independence from bad investing. Today we discuss investing, political commentary, and of course the U.S. debate. Listen in for investment insights and how politics often have little impact on stock market performance. The focus is on understanding market trends, with a detailed analysis of current market performance across various sectors, highlighting that a few high-performing stocks are driving overall market gains and more.

Today we discuss...

• The UK's new prime minister and political changes post-Brexit.
• The US presidential debate between Biden and Trump, with concerns about the candidates' competency.
• Emphasis on the lack of substance in the debate and questions about who is actually running the country.
• Discussion on the perceived gaslighting by political parties and media.
• The importance of consistent investment strategy irrespective of political changes.
• Market performance trends, focusing on high-performing stocks driving overall gains.
• Advice on the benefits of indexing and diversification in investments.
• Concluding thoughts on maintaining a disciplined investment approach despite market or political volatility.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/independence-from-bad-investing-623

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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Patricia Roberts joins us today to discuss how to give the gift of college with a 529 plan. She has spent over two decades guiding parents on how to prepare for the high costs of higher education and avoid the burden of student loan debt. Patricia played a pivotal role in launching a nonprofit program in New York City, providing seed money for college to 200,000 public school kindergartners. Now, Patricia works with Gift of College, bringing 529 education and student loan repayment benefits to workplaces. Today we discuss...

• The insights and expertise of Patricia, a seasoned professional in college financial planning.
• How to prepare for the high cost of higher education and avoid student loan debt.
• How a 529 benefits can be passed to the family.
• How Patricia helped launch a nonprofit program in New York City that provided seed money for college to 200,000 public school kindergartners.
• Gift of College and how they promote 529 education and student loan repayment benefits in the workplace.
• Patricia's book Route 529.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/give-the-gift-of-college-patricia-roberts-622

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Douglas Heagren | Pro College Planners

Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast

Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast

Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast