Moody’s first Private Credit Outlook predicts that this market will double by 2028 to more than $3 trillion of assets under management. Private credit should benefit from more volatile market conditions and from innovation which is attracting new kinds of customer but also generating new risks.

Later in the episode, we look in depth at the surge in retail investor involvement in private credit.

Guests: Marc Pinto, Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings; Christina Padgett, Associate Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings; and Alexandra Aspioti, Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings

Host: Tania Hall, Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings

To read more on this topic, visit Behind The Bonds page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Related research:

• Private Credit — Global: 2025 Outlook – Primed for growth as LBOs revive, ABF opportunities accelerate
• Financial Institutions – Europe: Revamped ELTIF legislation unlocks growth for the European private credit market
• Business Development Companies – US: Q3 2024 Update: Rate cuts will further erode net investment income; rise in nonaccruals pauses
• Financial Institutions – North America: Private credit ETFs will use public credit for liquidity, a potential performance challenge

The outlooks for corporates in North America, Latin America, China, Asia-Pacific and EMEA are now all stable. We discuss the drivers shaping those outlooks and the similarities and differences across regions. Then we’re taking a deeper dive into the improving credit fundamentals for global leveraged finance next year as interest rates decline and defaults ease.

Guests: Paloma San Valentin, Managing Director - North America Corporate Finance , Moody’s Ratings and Jeanine Arnold, Senior Vice President – Senior Analyst – Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings

To read more on this topic, visit Behind The Bonds page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Related research:

• Leveraged Finance – Global: 2025 Outlook – Improving credit conditions will boost deal flow, but risks to persist
• Nonfinancial Corporates – Latin America & Caribbean: 2025 Outlook – Stable on mixed growth, but operating environment implies hazards
• Nonfinancial Corporates – EMEA: 2025 Outlook - Stable on lower rates, moderate growth, but geopolitics weigh
• Nonfinancial Corporates – Asia-Pacific ex China (APAC): 2025 Outlook – Stable on growth, easing interest rates, despite geopolitical tensions
• Nonfinancial Corporates – China: 2025 Outlook – Stable amid stronger stimulus, but geopolitical risk has climbed
• Nonfinancial Corporates – North America: 2025 Outlook - Stable as inflation wanes but stressed consumers, geopolitics add risk

In the opening segment, we discuss how a host of factors including substantial AI investment underpin our positive outlook for the global diversified information technology sector over the next 12-18 months. Then at 10 minutes, we assess which types of technology companies stand to benefit from all of this AI investment more than others.

Guests: Raj Joshi, Senior Vice President, Global Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings and Vincent Gusdorf, AMD - Digital Finance and AI Analytics, Moody’s Ratings.

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings

To read more on this topic, visit Behind The Bonds page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Related Research:

• Diversified Information Technology – Global: Outlook positive as profits strengthen in steady macroeconomic environment
• Artificial Intelligence – Global: Profits from AI remain elusive but some sectors hold more promise than others

M&A activity remains robust across corporate sectors, including pharmaceuticals, homebuilding, mining and telecommunications. In our opening segment, we focus in part on how the green transition is driving deals in the mining segment as companies look to control critical minerals used in renewable energy technologies. In our second segment (10:10), we delve into prospects, including M&A, for large US telecommunications and cable companies. Companies are increasingly battling for high-speed data customers, partly due to the boom in streaming video. Yet the market is saturated with little differentiating the services.

Guests: Tobias Wagner, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Global Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings and Emile El Nems, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Global Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings

Host: Tania Hall, Senior Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings

To read more on these topics, visit Moodys.com (some content available only to registered users or subscribers).

Related Research:

• Corporates – North America: IG companies are well-positioned for rising but less transformational M&A
• Telecommunications – US: Competition intensifies as telco, cable try to justify network costs in saturated market

India's large domestic market shields its companies from external shocks, whereas Indonesia's export-dependent commodity sector prompts government efforts to diversify growth.

Guests: Rachel Chua, VP-Senior Analyst; Sweta Patodia, AVP-Analyst

Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings

Related Research:

• Nonfinancial Companies – India and Indonesia: Credit quality will remain robust, even as earnings trajectory diverges
• Nonfinancial Companies – Southeast Asia Dollar bond issuance will regain momentum when US interest rates begin to fall
• Nonfinancial Companies – India: Offshore funding indispensable despite improving domestic liquidity

This month our analysts are discussing what’s driving our still positive outlook for the global aerospace and defense sector for the next 12-18 months. Defense budgets are up as a result of rising geopolitical tensions and we expect strong operating profit for these companies. But persistent supply chain issues are delaying the delivery of new planes from the largest manufacturers Boeing and Airbus, even as air travel demand soars. 

Guests: Frederic Duranson, Vice President – Senior Analyst - Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service and Jonathan Root, Senior Vice President – Senior Analyst – Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings Service.

Host: Tania Hall, Senior Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service. 

To read more on this topic, visit Behind The Bonds page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Related Research:

• Aerospace and Defense – Global: Outlook remains positive despite lingering post-pandemic problems
• Geopolitical risk – Europe: Higher defence spending will strain budgets, but is credit positive for companies
• Boeing Company (The): Acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems will be positive for Boeing’s operations over the long run
• Sovereigns – Europe: Some EU sovereigns will face accumulating debt pressures and hard policy choices
• Airbus SE: Revised 2024 earnings guidance is credit negative

The pharmaceutical market has exploded in recent years with the rise of new drugs to help treat obesity and diabetes. The shift marks a huge opportunity for the pharmaceutical sector, which is pursuing the diabetes and obesity markets with four blockbuster drugs today: Ozempic and Wegovy from Novo Nordisk, and Mounjaro and Zepbound from Eli Lilly. In the first segment Mike Levesque looks at credit implications for the pharmaceutical industry, whose weight-loss drugs will generate some $80 billion in annual sales by 2030. Then at 11:10 minutes, Linda Montag discusses how the rise of the weight-loss drug segment will affect the packaged food, restaurant and packaging sectors.

Guests: Michael Levesque, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group; Linda Montag, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group. 

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com. (Some content available only to registered users or subscribers.)

• Cross-Sector – Global: Growth in obesity drugs will affect multiple industries but impact will take years

The commodities sector isn’t looking rosy and that is largely due to the outsize influence of China, which is currently in the grip of an economic slowdown. These pressures come on top of geopolitical damage to trade and supply chains, and the energy transition which is increasing global appetite for some commodities and eroding it for others. Our analysts look in particular at the fortunes of steel and commodity chemicals – both of which are seeing plunging demand from China. 

Later in the episode (at 12.49 mins) we also look more closely at gold. Investors are riding record highs for this very particular commodity, a traditional investment ‘safe haven’ whose idiosyncratic behaviour sometimes ignores the normal rules. 

Guests: Hui Ting Sim, Associate Vice President – Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings; Mike Zhu, Vice President – Senior Analyst – Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings; Jamie Koutsoukis, Vice President – Senior Analyst – Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings

To read more on this topic, visit the Macro Views page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). 

The outlook for the global real estate market remains negative with the bumpy economy, tight financing conditions and the surge in remote work. In the US, we expect rental income growth for offices to remain poor overall and apartment income growth to moderate this year with supply up, mostly in parts of the Sunbelt. Globally, Japan is a bright spot with supply-demand dynamics in the commercial market relatively stable. In Europe, the commercial market remains at risk of further deterioration, but the UK is likely to recover quicker as asset prices have fallen at a faster pace.

Guests: Lori Marks, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Global Corporate Finance Group and Ana Luz Silva, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Global Corporate Finance Group 

Host: Tania Hall, Senior Vice President - Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings

To read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com (Some content available only to registered users or subscribers.):

Related Research:

• Real Estate – Global: Outlook remains negative as high funding costs persist and the economy slows
• Real Estate – US: CRE fortunes vary by lender and property type, with office facing multiple risks
• Housing and Housing Finance – US: Homeowners with low rates stay put, keeping housing in a holding pattern
• Real Estate – Europe: Credit quality still at risk despite improving sentiment; greater divergence likely
• Commercial Real Estate – UK: Recovery set for second half of 2024, but pockets of distress will persist

In our opening segment, we discuss the slight slowdown in global market share growth for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as some incentives to buy have ended, yet prices remain high. A scarcity of charging stations in Europe and the US also remains a deterrent for consumers. Our second segment, which starts at 9:40, focuses on the charging shortage and who will pay for expansion.

Guests: Matthias Heck, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Global Corporate Finance Group and Rene Lipsch, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Global Corporate Finance Group

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings

To read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com. (Some content available only to registered users or subscribers.)

Related Research:

• Auto Manufacturing – Global: Vehicle volume growth to be muted after last year’s strong finish
• Automotive Manufacturing – EU & US: Charging network build-out must speed up to support EU, US automakers’ EV plans
• Automotive Manufacturing – Global: Compliance risks in emission and safety regulations are becoming more evident
• Fuel Retailers – Global: Electrification will erode market dominance, investment to curb cash flow