Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy are joined by Matt Gammans of North Dakota State University to discuss USDA’s $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief program, announced October 19, 2026. Dr. Gammans walks through the public data USDA says it will use, and compares a payment formula like last winter’s Farmer Bridge Assistance program with options based on per-acre fuel spending. The group also talks through how the payments might stack up against higher diesel and fertilizer costs, and how producers might handle the funds from a cash flow perspective.

 USDA has not released official payment rates, so all estimates discussed are preliminary. 

Dr. Hunter Biram sits down with Dr. Bruno Pinto, teaching assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of Arkansas, to talk about how El Niño could affect Brazil’s second-season corn crop, known as safrinha. Most of Brazil’s corn is planted right after the soybean harvest, so delays in soybean planting can push safrinha past its low-risk planting window. Bruno walks through what past El Niño seasons in Mato Grosso show about planting delays and yields, and why a smaller Brazilian crop could matter for U.S. corn exports. He also points to the key dates and numbers worth watching as this season unfolds. 

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles review the USDA’s October WASDE and Crop Production reports, starting with the surprise 2.7-bushel increase in the national corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre that briefly sent December futures down the daily limit. They talk about why higher ending stocks mean corn needs new demand before any lasting price rally, and how record crush and better exports are absorbing a record 4.56-billion-bushel soybean crop. The conversation also covers the long-grain rice balance sheet, where ending stocks are down 50% from last year, and a larger cotton crop driven by higher yields across the Delta States. 

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles walk through the 2026 ARC and PLC election, with signup open through December 11. They explain why the later signup works in producers’ favor, since USDA price projections and a better read on county yields are already available. They also explain why long-grain rice and cotton are leaning toward PLC while corn and soybeans look stronger under ARC-CO. The conversation then turns to wheat, where the choice is closer and depends a lot on how county yields have tracked against the benchmark. 

Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy look at how ongoing shipping disruptions from the Iran conflict continue to raise fuel and fertilizer costs for Arkansas row crop producers. Ryan explains how problems in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have pushed farm diesel far above the price used in the University of Arkansas 2026 Crop Enterprise Budgets. He also explains why urea costs hit corn, rice, and cotton growers harder than soybean and peanut producers. The two walk through an analysis Ryan built with Scott Stiles estimating the added cost per acre for each crop and the total impact on the state.

 Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy walk through the Southern Integrated Risk Management Tool (SIRM), a free web-based decision tool that helps farmers, county agents, crop insurance agents, and ag lenders build a crop insurance portfolio. The tool covers insurable counties in 13 southern states for principal row crops like corn, cotton, rice, and soybeans, estimating producer premiums for buy-up coverage and area plans such as SCO and ECO, adjusted for premium subsidies and land tenure. Hunter also demos how producers can use the tool to fit coverage to their own operation. 

Scott Stiles and Hunter Biram discuss the latest September 2026 WASDE, where the balance sheet held few surprises but the price changes stood out. Scott opens with a primer on how FSA certified acreage feeds into NASS production estimates and why the numbers firm up once the summer surveys are behind us. 

The conversation then turns to yield, with drought driving USDA's corn yield cut, and to a counter-seasonal rally that led USDA to raise average farm prices for corn, soybeans, and cotton. Hunter and Scott finish with the global factors in play, from strong Chinese soybean demand to a rocky start for Brazil's planting and the smallest French corn crop in 50 years. 

Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram sit down to discuss the crop insurance chapter from the newly released Surviving the Farm Economy Downturn: 2026 Update. Hunter walks through the basic decisions producers face when selecting federal crop insurance, from choosing between farm-level and county-level coverage to how unit structure and the differences among Yield Protection, Revenue Protection, and RP with Harvest Price Exclusion shape both premiums and protection. The chapter is meant as a starting point, and the episode points listeners to the full publication and other University of Arkansas resources for going deeper. 

Ryan Loy is joined by James Mitchell, Associate Professor and Fryar Price Risk Management Center Associate Director at the University of Arkansas, to dig into the new Beef Cow and Heifer Investment Analysis tool. 

With cattle prices at historical highs, this free online dashboard lets producers plug in their own numbers to compare buying a bred heifer against raising one of their own, returning net present value, breakeven price, and payback period in real time. James and Ryan explain how the tool treats a cow as a long-term investment and why the opportunity cost of holding a heifer calf back matters at today's prices. 

Hunter Biram, Scott Stiles, and Breana Watkins to look at why attractive winter wheat and canola prices may draw Arkansas acres this fall. With row crop margins still squeezed by high input costs, they dig into the newly released 2027 University of Arkansas enterprise budgets for both crops, walk through a side-by-side return comparison, and explain why canola holds a gross revenue edge on paper. 

The conversation also covers the fundamentals driving the wheat rally and the practical realities of canola's closed-loop marketing, limited delivery points, and the learning curve growers may face with a new crop.