In this episode of the FreightWaves Morning Minute, we break down the conflicting economic signals heading into 2026 as plummeting operational costs collide with tightening capacity. Benchmark diesel falls again as oil market selloff picks up steam, with crude futures dipping below $60 per barrel even as retail pump prices struggle to catch up to the drop.

Capacity pressures are intensifying from factories to fulfillment centers, as more layoffs hit U.S. supply chain, including over 4,200 recent job cuts at major companies like Ford and Great Dane. These structural reductions highlight a market realignment that goes beyond typical seasonal dips, creating significant capacity constraints across the sector.

New government data reveals that truck transportation jobs last month were the lowest in years, dropping to levels not seen since June 2021. Despite this decline in employment, the capacity squeeze has pushed the average hourly wage for non-supervisory trucking employees to a record high of $31.40.

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