Here’s a quick quiz to see whether you’ve been paying attention lately.  Question one: How many times have predictions of things like property prices falling off a cliff appeared in media headlines in the past, say, three years?  Question two: How many times have things actually gone ahead and fallen off the forecast cliff?  Question three: Should we be listening any more to journalists and economists who predict these dire cliff disasters?  So, how did you go with the quiz?  I don’t have the exact number of headlines which have forecast a mortgage cliff or a market cliff or prices falling off a cliff, but it would number in the thousands so far in this decade of the 2020s.  Now, as to how many times things have actually fallen off the alleged cliff, I do have a precise answer: exactly zero times.  We were told property prices would fall off a cliff in 2020 but they rose.

Mortgage Cliff

Prepare to embark on an exciting journey into the realm of hot property markets with Terry Ryder and Tim Graham! Terry & Tim from Hotspotting, are dedicated to providing the most accurate and unbiased research to help investors make informed decisions on where to buy. The Hotspotting Podcast brings you the latest data, trends, and market statistics, along with in-depth discussions on growth areas and the larger factors impacting Australia's property landscape. 

Terry & Tim regularly feature special guests from around Australia to share their industry insights and expertise to help investors cut through the noise.

Whether you're a seasoned investor or a first-time buyer, this show is a must-listen for anyone looking to build their knowledge and make smarter investment choices. Terry Ryder, with over 35 years of experience as a specialist researcher and writer in residential property, offers expert insights that are completely independent and free from outside influences. Tim Graham has been a buyers agent and mortgage broker for over 13 years along with working in real estate all over the world.

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A podcast by people who make a difference, with people who are the difference. Listen to how incredible people live life on their terms. Chris Christofi, entrepreneur, is the brain-child behind this brilliant podcast. He talks to multiple World Champions, CEOs of major property development companies, brand innovators and unexpected entrepreneurs about their journey listening to their mindset, their gratitude and their unceasing intensity to get to the top. Chris pays it forward unveiling the secrets to their success to ensure listeners learn from the best. If you want to level up your inner game, watch Relentless on YouTube or listen wherever you listen to your podcasts. About This Episode From humble beginnings growing up in a country pub, it was a fateful meeting between Tim and our very own Chris Christofi that set Tim on a whole new path. From travelling all around the world selling real estate, to becoming the COO of Reventon, and finally the General Manager of Hotspotting with Terry Ryder, it's been a meteoric rise for this kid from the country. A long-time friend of the Reventon business, Tim sat down with Chris to talk about his journey, gaining the respect of clients and the challenges of selling real estate in 18 different countries.

Relentless Podcast: Season 5, Episode 9 -  Feat. Tim Graham

Join Terry Ryder & Tim Graham as they reveal the powerful EMPIRICAL Formula used to identify the Top 50 Suburbs for above-average rental yields and outstanding capital growth. Discover how our formula has consistently delivered remarkable results, with some areas experiencing up to 30% growth in the past year. Webinar Highlights: The EMPIRICAL Formula: Learn the methodology behind selecting top-performing suburbs. Proven Results: See the impressive outcomes from following our tips, including double-digit capital growth in the latest quarter alone. Top 50 Suburbs: Discover locations with high rental yields (5-8%) and property appreciation rates (10-15%). Case Studies: Explore success stories like Orelia in Perth (17.9% increase in three months), East Mackay in Queensland, and Kingston in southern Brisbane. Exceptional Performance: Uncover 11 suburbs with over 20% growth in the past year. Regional Standout: Dalby, Queensland, with a 24% increase in rental yields and a 15% rise in property valuations in the last 12 months. Ideal for: Serious Property Investors Real Estate Professionals Mortgage Brokers Financial Planners Buyers Agents Investment Advisors For more information on our Hotspotting reports please visit www.hotspotting.com.au/reports And for more information on memberships visit www.hotspotting.com.au/memberships

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The misuse of price statistics represents a clear and present danger for real estate consumers trying to make choices about where to buy. The much-quoted adage about lies, damned lies and statistics applies very aptly to median prices for locations across Australia. While this data can be useful to buyers and sellers, if used intelligently, way too often it’s misused and abused in news media in ways that misinform and mislead consumers. One of the most common misuses of median price data occurs when media outlets publish lists of the locations which, allegedly, have had the biggest growth in property values in a recent time period. Journalists love these lists, usually spat out of the computer database of a research organisation which craves free publicity and doesn’t care too much about the accuracy or authenticity of the figures. One of the problems is that journalists often confuse a 10% rise in the median house price with a 10% rise in the location’s property values. Often it’s not the same thing at all, because median prices are very rubbery figures. Here are a few facts about median prices you need to know about:-   If you do a computer search on the median price for any suburb or town in Australia, you might get answers from seven or eight different sources and they will be all different.   If you ask how much the median house price has grown, or fallen, in the past 12 months, you again will often get seven or eight different answers.   Median prices are notoriously and dangerously unreliable if the sales sample is small. If, for example, there have been only nine or ten sales in a suburb or town in the past year, then the median price will be meaningless, and the increase or decrease will be unreliable, because that’s a very small sales sample.   At Hotspotting, we disregard median price data for a location if there are fewer than 30 sales in a year.   So recently, a recent media headline shouted very loudly about a New South Wales location where “property values” had risen 150% in the past five years – including 8.2% in the past 12 months, according to CoreLogic – which is one of those research organisations which loves free publicity and doesn’t always scrutinise the data that achieves it. The reality is that the location in question, Catherine Hill Bay in the Lake Macquarie area, is a very small village with very few sales – and the figures on its median house price cannot be treated as gospel. According to the article, the median house price was $1.43 million, according to CoreLogic, up 8.2% in 12 months and 151% in five years. But if you check out the latest figures on yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au, the median house price is $1.56 million, up 5.7% in the past 12 months – and has grown at a rate of 25% per year over the past 10 years – which means property values are doubling every three years. If that was true, this insignificant location would be the outstanding real estate performer in the nation, if not the world. But PropTrack’s latest information says the median house price is $1.6 million, up 10% in the past 12 months. But with little increase in the past two years. But here’s the thing. How many house sales in Catherine Hill Bay in the past year? Just 10. Which means the median house price data is rubbish. If you look at the PropTrack graph for the change in its median house price over the past five years, the figures jump all over the place – because there are so few sales. The message is: if you torture statistics enough, they’ll tell you anything you want to hear.  But smart investors will not base a big purchase decision on this kind of data.  

Statistical Deception

It’s a common myth that an investment property can’t have both strong rental yields and capital growth.  Our data shows us time and time again that BOTH outcomes are possible, and no report illustrates it better than ‘The National Top 10 Positive Cashflow Hotspots Report’. Investing in real estate is all about timing and choosing the right locations that promise substantial returns. Our latest edition of the National Top 10 Positive Cashflow Hotspots report reveals the insights you need to make informed decisions and maximise your investment potential. Our Previous Scorecard Our tips from last year had some remarkable growth in both property values and rental yields in these suburbs, reinforcing their attractiveness as investment destinations. Here's a glimpse of the standout performers: Armadale (W.A.): 12-month Capital Growth: 31.30% Rental Growth: 28.20% Withers (W.A.): 12-month Property Growth: 30.70% 12-month Rental Growth: 12.50% Elizabeth Downs (S.A.): 12-month Property Growth: 23.50% 12-month Rental Growth: 16.70% Orelia (W.A.): 12-month Property Growth: 25.70% 12-month Rental Growth: 14.90% Berserker (QLD): 12-month Property Growth: 16.70% 12-month Rental Growth: 7.50% Grab your copy today  https://www.hotspotting.com.au/product/national-top-10-positive-cashflow-hotspots/

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 I have often commented that every time politicians make changes that impact the cost of housing, they make it worse, never better.    And it’s happening again.   Changes to the National Construction Code came into effect in Victoria and Queensland on the first of May.    And this is expected to add up to $40,000 to the cost of building a new home - through, among other things, the Code’s new energy efficiency standards.  HIA Chief Economist Tim Reardon said this caused a spike in new home sales before the changes came into effect – and there will a slump in coming months – as home buyers rushed to sign a contract for the construction of their new home before the end of April.  Reardon says New South Wales experienced the same phenomenon in September last year when the state introduced its latest energy efficiency standards, adding significantly to the cost of a new home.   Reardon says: “Additional regulatory costs, such as the Code changes, are one of the causes of the nation’s acute shortage of housing. The changes are intended to achieve energy efficiency and accessibility outcomes, but they also force people out of homeownership and the rental market.  “Ongoing changes to building codes will continue inflating the costs of construction with the next phase of building regulations now open for public consultation.  “If ever there was a good time to stop inflating the cost of home building, this must be it.   “Lowering the cost of delivering new homes to market is essential to achieving the Federal Government’s target of 1.2 million new homes over the next five years, and improving housing affordability across the country.”   Developers have warned that additional infrastructure charges will work against government plans to unlock more newly built homes and will make property more unaffordable for buyers.   AV Jennings chief executive Phil Kearns said about $200,000 of the cost of a new home is tied up in fees and charges across all three levels of government.   Kearns said: “It’s substantial - and now the National Construction Code will add around another $30,000 to $40,000 worth of cost for mum and dad to put up with. We have this government working against itself in trying to create more affordable housing.”   A report by Savills for the Property Council of Australia found planned increases in the next 24 months to two recent infrastructure charges in Sydney — the new Sydney Water Development Servicing Plan and Housing and Productivity Contribution charges — could jeopardise the delivery of almost 190,000 homes in the city’s west.   Modelling in the report found a typical 250-unit apartment development, and a 115-lot greenfield development would no longer be financially feasible - and will be significantly less feasible in 2026 under planned increases.   In NSW, there are currently 15 separate levies and taxes on new housing. The report found that in Western Parkland City – which covers from Wollondilly and Campbelltown to Blue Mountains and the Hawkesbury — 33 per cent of new home costs will be government fees by 2026.    In the Central River City region, spanning the Hills Shire, Blacktown and Bankstown, the figure was 26 per cent.   Kearns said there is also the continued challenge to secure skilled labour on-site, which continues to exacerbate delivery costs.   He said the labour skill shortages, the tax situation, and the difficulty in getting approvals through, are preventing homes from being built.   He said: “Blocks keep getting put in our way.”   Meanwhile, Reserve Bank chief economist Sarah Hunter has warned there is no “quick fix” for Australia’s housing market woes, as developers defer projects due to high costs - sending dwelling approvals per capita to decade lows.   The severe undersupply of homes means house prices and rents will continue to rise as the market fails to keep pace with strong demand for space fuelled by high migration and more people  working from home.   Dr Hunter says: “Demand pressure, and so upward pressure on rents and prices, will remain until new supply comes online.”   She says that, usually, rising prices and rents trigger a surge in new housing supply as investors and developers see opportunity to profit from new builds.   But Dr Hunter says a “perfect storm” of constraints has prevented the construction industry from responding to the current housing shortage. In the current circumstances, many projects are simply not viable.   What it all means is that the shortage will continue for years to come – and the cost of buying or renting homes will continue to rise.      

Mortgage Cliff

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