Mortgage rates have dropped to a new low for 2025, now averaging 6.27%. The surprising part? It happened even as inflation came in hotter than expected. The reason lies in a sudden spike in jobless claims, led by Texas, that shook bond markets and sent Treasury yields lower.

In this episode, Kathy Fettke breaks down why labor data is outweighing inflation concerns, what continuing claims at a three-year high signal for the job market, and why bond traders are betting on a softer economy. You'll also learn what level of jobless claims could tip the U.S. into recession territory — and why the upcoming Fed meeting could be one of the most dramatic in years.

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